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Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future. 相似文献
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Aboriginal Australians have traditionally enjoyed little protection from the law. The matter of land has been at the heart of white settler/Aboriginal relations since the nation was first founded. It is only recently that recognition has been given to the land rights of Australian indigenous people. This recognition was finally made at the property law level in 1992 through the High Court decision in Mabo v. Queensland (n. 2) ([1992] 175 CLR 1). The 1993 High Court decision in The Wik Peoples v. Queensland ([1996] 71 ALJR 173) reinforced that recognition. It did so through the principle that pastoral lessees' and native title holders' rights might co-exist except that, in the event of any inconsistency, the pastoralists' rights were to prevail, provided pastoral activity was being pursued. The most recent legal change is the parliamentary revision of the Native Title Act so that the Wik co-existence principle was put to rest, mainly through permitting the State governments to upgrade pastoral holdings to a form of freehold, thus immunising them from native title claims, and minimising the payment of compensation. In this paper we argue that the country must consider what has been lost in this about-turn from the recognition of native title to land in Mabo . We argue that the nation must consider the emphases in the Mabo judgments upon the significance of international law and the need for the common law not to be locked into a racist past. From that point, we contend for the need to recognise not only native title to land but what lies beyond that: indigenous political and human rights. 相似文献
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Joyce A. Arditti 《Family Court Review》1997,35(1):79-89
This article examines the context of mothers' economic risk postdivorce. Data collected from 212 divorced custodial mothers and 225 divorced noncustodial fathers are used to illustrate income dynamics pre- and postdivorce as well as differences in income distribution between men and women. Findings confirm trends uncovered in other studies: Women's economic decline appears to be more pronounced than men's. Risk factors encompassed by various systemic levels are summarized and discussed as a context for understanding and intervention. Specific recommendations for policy are offered. 相似文献
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David J. Kolko 《Journal of family violence》1987,2(4):303-318
Recent years have witnessed the development and implementation of clinical services designed to remediate the many deleterious effects of child sexual abuse. However, little information has been disseminated and reviewed in the professional literature to facilitate clinical application and empirical investigation of specific procedures with child victims and their families. This paper provides an overview and critique of treatment programs and modalities, highlighting their achievements and limitations. The methods, characteristics, and empirical outcomes of specific programs are discussed along with future directions and recommendations. 相似文献
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This study is an extension of a previous evaluation of a program (Red Flag/Green Flag) in which children, parents, and teachers were exposed to a workbook and film designed to teach personal safety strategies for preventing sexual victimization or encouraging adult assistance through disclosure of such incidents. In the current investigation, only children and their teachers received this didactic training program. Children and teachers from neighboring schools were assigned to a Training or Control group. Self-reports from children, teachers, and parents, as well as guidance counselor incident reports, were obtained to evaluate outcome. Results indicated greater gains in general knowledge and prevention skills at post-training and 6-month follow-up for trained than control children. Some improvements were made by trained teachers and parents of trained children. Child reports of personal experiences and guidance counselor incident reports were in accord with the assistance component of the program. However, the pattern of reports across sources is difficult to interpret. The findings are discussed in light of salient issues regarding the content of training, child disclosure, and methodology. 相似文献