Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model

Suzanna De Boef and Kyle A. Joyce Department of Political Science, 219 Pond Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 e-mail: sdeboef{at}psu.edu e-mail: kjoyce{at}psu.edu e-mail: jboxstef+{at}osu.edu (corresponding author) We introduce the conditional frailty model, an event historymodel that separates and accounts for both event dependenceand heterogeneity in repeated events processes. Event dependenceand heterogeneity create within-subject correlation in eventtimes thereby violating the assumptions of standard event historymodels. Simulations show the advantage of the conditional frailtymodel. Specifically they demonstrate the model's ability todisentangle the sources of within-subject correlation as wellas the gains in both efficiency and bias of the model when comparedto the widely used alternatives, which often produce conflictingconclusions. Two substantive political science problems illustratethe usefulness and interpretation of the model: state policyadoption and terrorist attacks. Authors' note: Three anonymous reviewers gave valuable advice.Replication materials and an online appendix are available onthe Political Analysis Web site. Any errors are our own responsibility.     

UNDERSTANDING DISTRESSED FATHERS' PERCEPTIONS OF LEGAL AND RELATIONAL INEQUITIES POSTDIVORCE

This study examines distressed fathers' perceptions of inequity about their experiences related to the divorce process, custody, visitation, and child support. A content analysis of men's subjective responses to an open-ended survey question revealed dissatisfactions with the legal system and emotional hardships associated with divorce. Fathers expressed strong negative feelings about discrimination from the legal system. Relational inequities centered around the ex-wife and her perceived responsibility for problems with the courts and relationships with children.