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51.
Many voters are canvassed by British political parties in the months and weeks immediately preceding a general election – but many are not. The parties are selective in whom they make contact with, and where. They focus on those in marginal constituencies who are likely to vote for them – and having identified them early in the process they contact them again, seeking to sustain that support in the seats where the contest overall will be either won or lost. A large panel survey conducted immediately before and after the 2010 general election allows detailed insight into that pattern of canvassing, identifying who the parties contacted, and where, in the six months prior to the election being called, and then who were contacted during the month immediately preceding polling day, and in how many different ways. Each party focused on its own supporters in the marginal constituencies, and in the middle-class neighbourhoods within those constituencies, but whereas the Conservatives, expecting to win the election, campaigned most intensively in the seats they lost by relatively small margins at the previous contest, Labour and the Liberal Democrats fought defensive campaigns in the seats that they won then. Such tactics were successful; the more ways in which respondents were contacted by a party, the more likely they were to vote for it. 相似文献
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53.
Victoria Berezowski MSc Ian Moffat PhD Dilan Seckiner PhD Isabella Crebert BA Justin Ellis PhD Xanthé Mallett PhD 《Journal of forensic sciences》2024,69(1):316-328
Research in many forensic science fields commonly uses domestic pigs (Sus spp.) as proxies for human remains, due to their physiological and anatomical similarities, as well as being more readily available. Unfortunately, previous research, especially that which compares the decompositional process, has shown that pigs are not appropriate proxies for humans. To date, there has not been any published research that specifically addresses whether domestic pigs are adequate human proxies for the geophysical detection of clandestine graves. As such, the aim of this paper was to compare the geophysical responses of pig cadavers and human donor graves, in order to determine if pigs can indeed be used as adequate human proxies. To accomplish this, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) responses on single and multiple pig cadaver graves were compared to single and multiple human donor graves, all of which are in known locations within the same geological environment. The results showed that under field conditions, both GPR and ERT were successful at observing human and pig burials, with no obvious differences between the detected geophysical responses. The results also showed that there were no differences in the geophysical responses of those who were clothed and unclothed. The similarity of the responses may reflect that the geophysical techniques can detect graves despite what their contents are. The study implications suggest that experimental studies in other soil and climate conditions can be easily replicated, benefiting law enforcement with missing persons cases. 相似文献
54.
Do interstate relations influence the sources and targets of transnational terrorism? A considerable body of recent research suggests that the answer to this question is yes, and that one state may sponsor terrorist attacks to weaken the bargaining positions of other states. We suggest, in contrast, that positive or cooperative actions invite terrorist attacks from a different source: nonstate groups wishing to spoil interstate cooperation that they oppose. We assess this argument with a dyadic dataset using monthly data on transnational terrorist attacks and cooperative and noncooperative actions between states. Our results suggest that spoiling in response to interstate cooperation is an important determinant of transnational terrorism. 相似文献
55.
Objectives
Recent legislation in Pennsylvania mandates that forecasts of "future dangerousness" be provided to judges when sentences are given. Similar requirements already exist in other jurisdictions. Research has shown that machine learning can lead to usefully accurate forecasts of criminal behavior in such setting. But there are settings in which there is insufficient IT infrastructure to support machine learning. The intent of this paper is provide a prototype procedure for making forecasts of future dangerousness that could be used to inform sentencing decisions when machine learning is not practical. We consider how classification trees can be improved so that they may provide an acceptable second choice.Methods
We apply an version of classifications trees available in R, with some technical enhancements to improve tree stability. Our approach is illustrated with real data that could be used to inform sentencing decisions.Results
Modest sized trees grown from large samples can forecast well and in a stable fashion, especially if the small fraction of indecisive classifications are found and accounted for in a systematic manner. But machine learning is still to be preferred when practical.Conclusions
Our enhanced version of classifications trees may well provide a viable alternative to machine learning when machine learning is beyond local IT capabilities. 相似文献56.
Justin Massie 《Democracy and Security》2016,12(2):85-113
Why do some democratic allies prematurely withdraw from ongoing military US-led coalition operations? Why are some democratic allies more reliable than others? This article proposes a multifactorial integrated framework consisting of several causal mechanisms drawn from ideological, domestic, and alliance explanations of premature defection. It compares and contrasts two neglected case studies, namely the Canadian and Dutch withdrawal of combat troops from NATO’s counterinsurgency mission in southern Afghanistan. The comparative analysis finds that democratic institutional designs, parliamentary war powers, leadership turnover, as well alliance dependence and threat perceptions did not play a meaningful role in both cases of premature defection. It rather finds that domestic elite consensus interacted with electoral calculations to account for pullout choices. Right-wing ideological beliefs held by state executives also slowed down the decision to withdraw, and alliance pressures interacted with domestic elite consensus to account for commitment renewal into a noncombat mission. The article concludes with some implications for the theory of democratic alliance reliability. 相似文献
57.
Justin T. Pickett 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2016,32(1):103-132
Objectives
Because of the merging of immigration control and criminal justice, or “crimmigration,” state and local police increasingly drive interior immigration enforcement through the routine policing of crime. At the same time, growing evidence indicates that immigration is an ethnicity-coded issue that allows for the veiled expression of broader anti-Latino sentiments. Yet little research has examined whether public perceptions of either immigrants or Latinos influence support for police policies and practices that, in the context of crimmigration, may significantly shape immigration enforcement and, more broadly, may contribute to the subordination of Latinos. The current study addresses this research question.Methods
The study draws on data from a recent nationally representative telephone survey and employs multivariate regression methods to evaluate whether perceptions of Latino economic and political threat are associated with support for granting police greater latitude in stopping, searching, and using force against suspects.Results
This study provides the first evidence that, at least among Whites, perceived Latino threat is positively associated with support for expanding police investigative powers, especially the power to stop suspects based only on the way they look.Conclusions
The results suggest that by increasing public support for aggressive policing, or, at minimum, by reducing opposition to discriminatory social controls such as police profiling, Latino threat perceptions may increase the political attractiveness and viability of crimmigration as a “solution” to the “Latino problem.”58.
Adam Dobrin Justin J. Smith Jennifer H. Peck Ken Mascara 《American Journal of Criminal Justice》2016,41(3):522-538
With growing numbers of female staff in correctional settings, issues relating to promotional fairness are certain to occur. Historically, female detention staff held perceptions of being discriminated against in the promotional process due to gender biases. However, there is almost no recent examination of these perceptions. The current study addresses this shortcoming in the literature by using a sample of 362 sworn detention deputies ranked Sergeant and below at a large southern-central United States jail. Contrary to the data from a generation ago, more male detention staff perceive gender biases in the promotional process than females, and report that promotional decisions are based on arbitrary and informal factors. Women are more likely to perceive promotions to be fair and based on merit. Results are discussed in relation to two theoretical perspectives: the importation-differential experiences model, and the work-role prisonization model. 相似文献
59.
Earl L. Hagström Christopher Lyles Mala Pattanayek Bridgette DeShields Mark P. Berkman 《环境索赔杂志》2016,28(2):122-139
Produced water should be viewed as an environmental asset—part of the water resource solution—not as a waste that contributes to environmental problems; its treatment and reuse can reduce the stress on fresh water resources. Treatment cost is the most significant factor determining the volume of produced water that will be available for reuse. Water pricing, which is in large part a matter of public policy, must also be considered when reexamining how to maximize the use of this valuable resource. When deciding whether to treat and use produced water companies will need to weigh the risk of litigation and regulatory enforcement actions against the benefits of introducing treated water into the stream of commerce. Allaying the public's fear of chemicals in the water supply is also a significant factor in determining whether produced water is viewed as part of a water resource solution or as a waste by-product. 相似文献
60.