Social networks of sexual offenders

Abstract

Despite the extensive research attention directed toward criminal peer groups, there has been little attention to the peer groups of sexual offenders. Sexual offenders are often considered to be loners who offend in isolation, but cases of sex crimes involving peer support are not difficult to find, e.g., child sex rings, gang rapes. To examine the role of peers in sexual offending, sexual offenders and nonsexual offenders were asked whether they knew other people who have committed sexual crimes. In comparison to the nonoffender community comparison group, the sexual offenders reported considerably more association and identification with sexual offenders. The associations also tended to be offence specific, such that child molesters knew other child molesters and rapists knew other rapists. These findings have important implications for the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders.     

A modified Stroop task with sexual offenders: Replication of a study

Abstract

Cognitive–behavioural treatment of sexual offenders assumes that sexual offenders are motivated by deviant attitudes, perceptions and values. Although aspects of deviant schema can be assessed by questionnaires, self-report measures are limited by the respondent's willingness to be forthright and by the fact that, typically, these cognitive processes occur quickly, revealing signs of automaticity. Recent research by Smith and Waterman has suggested that the deviant schema of sexual offenders could be assessed using a version of the Stroop colour-naming task. Long latency periods to sexual colour words imply a longer information-processing route and evidence of pre-established (deviant) sexual cognitive schema. Stroop techniques may offer the advantage of eliminating limitations that arise when using self-report techniques, such as fakeability and social desirability concerns. The current study replicates and extends Smith and Waterman's results using samples of sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and non-violent offenders. The cumulative results of the two studies suggests that Stroop techniques have promise, but that further work is required before measures are available that have sufficient reliability and validity to be used in applied contexts.     

Clash of the Titans?

Abstract

Asia's strategic evolutions during the next two decades or so will put major theories about great-power behavior to the test. A trio of new books about the Sino–Indian rivalry help sketch out a timely research agenda.     

Miserly Developments

We measure the level of poverty in the midst of affluence using what we denote the miser index. We calculate the index of poverty-induced polarisation for a number of countries. The most miserly countries are in Southern Africa and Latin America. Miserly countries tend to be socially fractionalised, bureaucratically inefficient, and politically corrupt. They provide low levels of healthcare and education. Considering the world as a single entity, we find a dramatic rise in global miserliness over the last 30 years going from the level of Colombia to that of South Africa.

For one very rich man, there must be at least five hundred poor, and the affluence of the few supposes the indigence of the many. (Adam Smith, 1776: 232)     

The difference between drug money and a "lifetime's savings"

In many countries, monies suspected of being associated with drug trafficking can be seized by the authorities. One of the ways of investigating this association is through the analysis of seized banknotes for traces of controlled drugs. We report three studies which may assist the expert in assessing whether banknotes contaminated with diamorphine are part of the general population of notes in circulation or whether they show unusual contamination patterns which require explanation. Study 1 is based on three plausible contamination scenarios as they may occur during the various stages of an illicit drug transaction and seizure. It shows that notes which have been in direct contact with visible traces of diamorphine show significantly higher contamination to those in more indirect contact with the drug. Study 2 investigates the transfer of diamorphine from one highly contaminated note to other notes in a bundle over a period of 10 weeks with and without agitation. It was found that the total amount of drug transferred was smaller than 6% and no more than 4 out of a bundle of 10 previously clean notes became lightly contaminated. Based on extensive background data, study 3 proposes a probabilistic model to assess whether an observed proportion of diamorphine bearing banknotes is likely to have been contaminated by chance. The model predicts that there is only a 0.3% chance that a bundle of 100 notes from the general banknote population contains more than six contaminated specimens. Jointly, the three studies give useful indications for the spread of contamination throughout a sample and the amounts of heroin which may be expected given plausible contamination scenarios.     

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.     

Why Emotions Matter: Expectancy Violation and Affective Response Mediate the Emotional Victim Effect

The mechanisms behind the ‘emotional victim effect’ (i.e., that the emotionality of a rape victim’s demeanor affects perceived credibility) are relatively unexplored. In this article, a previously neglected mechanism—observers’ affective response to the victim—is proposed as an alternative to the traditional expectancy-violation account. The emotional victim effect was replicated in an experiment with a sample of police trainees (N = 189), and cognitive load was found to increase the magnitude of the effect. Importantly, both compassionate affective response and expectancy violation actively mediated the emotional victim effect when the other mechanism was controlled for. These findings extend previous research on credibility judgments by introducing a ‘hot’ cognitive component in the judgment process. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations

Some recent articles have proposed that the confidence interval for the predicted outcome of a single case can be used to describe the predictive accuracy of risk assessments (Hart et al. Br J Psychiat 190:60–65, 2007b; Cooke and Michie, Law Hum Behav 2009). Given that the confidence intervals for an individual prediction are very large, Cooke and colleagues have questioned the wisdom of applying recidivism rates estimated from group data to single cases. In this article, we argue that the confidence intervals for the recidivism outcome predicted for a single case will range between zero to one (i.e., be uninformative) when the outcome is dichotomous and the predicted probability is between .05 and .95. This is true by definition and limits the utility of using individual confidence intervals to measure predictive accuracy. Consequently, other quality indicators (many of which are non-quantitative) are needed to determine the accuracy and error of risk evaluations.