Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations

Some recent articles have proposed that the confidence interval for the predicted outcome of a single case can be used to describe the predictive accuracy of risk assessments (Hart et al. Br J Psychiat 190:60–65, 2007b; Cooke and Michie, Law Hum Behav 2009). Given that the confidence intervals for an individual prediction are very large, Cooke and colleagues have questioned the wisdom of applying recidivism rates estimated from group data to single cases. In this article, we argue that the confidence intervals for the recidivism outcome predicted for a single case will range between zero to one (i.e., be uninformative) when the outcome is dichotomous and the predicted probability is between .05 and .95. This is true by definition and limits the utility of using individual confidence intervals to measure predictive accuracy. Consequently, other quality indicators (many of which are non-quantitative) are needed to determine the accuracy and error of risk evaluations.     

To Discipline and Publish: Scottsboro and Narratives of Delinquency

With the economics of racism of the 1930s and 1950s American South in mind, our essay explores the relationship between the act of writing and institutional penology. Taking an obscure, but visceral autobiographical account by Paterson and Conrad (Scottsboro Boy, Garden City Doubleday, 1950), we examine how discipline, punishment, and institutional identity emerge out of publishing, or, as Foucault put it, “the power of writing.” Narratives of delinquency born out of a racialized penal economy tend to resist attempts to tame the criminal, making institutional survival a productive discourse, and its articulation, a unique revolutionary act.

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In Search of Indicators of Detective Aptitude: Police Recruits’ Logical Reasoning and Ability to Generate Investigative Hypotheses

Previous psychological research on criminal investigation has not systematically addressed the role of deductive and inductive reasoning skills in decision-making in detectives. This study examined the relationship between these skills derived from a cognitive ability test used for police recruitment and test scores from an investigative reasoning skills task (Fahsing and Ask 2016). Newly recruited students at the Norwegian Police University College (N = 166) were presented with two semi-fictitious missing-person cases and were asked to report all relevant hypotheses and necessary investigative actions in each case. The quality of participants’ responses was gauged by comparison with a gold standard established by a panel of senior police experts. The scores from the deductive and inductive reasoning test were not related to participants’ performance on the investigative reasoning task. However, the presence or absence of an investigative “tipping-point” (i.e. arrest decision) in the two cases was systematically associated with participants’ ability to generate investigative hypotheses. Methodological limitations and implications for police recruitment and criminal investigative practice are discussed.     

Literatur

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Assessing the EU’s Transatlantic Regulatory Powers Using the Choice of Policy Instruments as Measurement of Preference Attainment

To what extent is the European Union (EU) exercising global regulatory power? This article investigates this question through a comparative study of two significant global policy fields: data-protection and banking with a special focus on the choice of policy instruments. Both cases suggest that the actual role of the EU is more complex than either exercising or being subjected to global regulatory power. This concerns not only the relationship between the EU and the member-states. The article suggests that the EU is in a better position to conclude global regulatory deals when the negotiating competencies sit with one EU institutional actor.     

Introduction: Household and family contexts in the Balkans

The structural study of the Balkan family began in the United States in the 1940s, producing several generations of scholars. Such scholarly continuity is much more recent on the European continent. Findings to date suggest the Balkan pattern of male equal partible inheritance could lead to four distinctive household formation patterns. But though it seems that the inheritance system played a key role, it was only in combination with additional elements that a distinctive pattern evolved. These additional elements were neolocality or patrivirilocality; environmental factors (abundance or scarcity of land, remote mountainous regions, islands); economic factors such as forms of pastoralism, mixed production or fishing; and agnatic kinship as opposed to community ties. Future research will have to continue to address the question of Balkan familial diversity, as well as how the Balkans compare to the rest of Europe with respect to crucial familial characteristics.     

BodyShock: A technology transfer case study

This case study presents a test of a technology transfer model developed by Karl Dakin of The Denver Technology Exchange Corporation. The model involves the creation of a new business organization dedicated solely to completing the transfer of a technology to a single application. In this case, the technology is the BodyShock, developed by Jim Hartway with JH Design, Inc., of Littleton, Colorado.     

Controlling bureaucracy: attitudes in the Alberta Public Service towards the Ombudsman

Abstract. The Ombudsman represents a recent and interesting example of the transfer of political institutions across cultural boundaries. The Ombudsman was established in Alberta both as an attempt to assist the consumer of government services in coping with an increasingly complex bureaucracy and as a legislative auxiliary for controlling bureaucracy. The degree to which the Ombudsman is accepted or rejected by the public service is an important variable in measuring the success of the transfer. The usefulness of the Ombudsman as an innovation in the field of citizen-government relations depends to a considerable extent on the impact which the Ombudsman has on the provincial bureaucracy. Other than correcting a relatively small number of cases of maladministration, does the Ombudsman contribute to improving public administration? Are there dysfunctional consequences (e.g. hidden costs) in imposing yet another control agency on bureaucracy? How does the presence of the Ombudsman affect the behaviour of officials? In this article the author analyses part of the data from an extensive survey of a representative sample of the Alberta public service concerning officials' perception of and attitudes towards the Ombudsman. Several diverse attitude measures show that in the aggregate the provincial public service has a remarkably positive attitude towards the Ombudsman. Several variables are considered in search of an explanation for this attitude structure. The findings allow predictions about officials' behaviour in official-client interactions, which are also tested against direct and indirect data on behaviour obtained in the survey. Sommaire. Le Protecteur du citoyen (‘Ombudsman’) constitue un exemple particulièrement intéressant illustrant bien la tendance récente à transposer des institutions politiques au dela des frontières culturelles. Le poste de Protecteur du citoyen a été créé en Alberta dans le but d'assister le consommateur de services des administrations publiques dans ses relations avec une bureaucratie de plus en plus complexe, et d'exercer une fonction d'auxiliaire législatif capable de contrôler cette bureaucratie. Le mesure dans laquelle le Protecteur du citoyen est accepté ou rejeté par la fonction publique constitue une variable importante permettant de mesurer le succès de l'institution. L'utilité du Protecteur du citoyen considéré comme phénomène nouveau apparu dans le contexte des relations entre les citoyens et les pouvoirs publics dépend dans une large mesure de l'influence qu'il exerce sur la bureaucratie provinciale. Abstraction faite des mesures correctives apportées à un nombre relativement réduit d'erreurs et de lacunes administratives, le Protecteur du citoyen contribue-t-il à améliorer la qualité de l'administration publique? Faut-il craindre que l'imposition d'un nouvel organe de contrôle à la bureaucratic n'engendre des consequences liées à des troubles fonctionnels (par exemple des coûts non apparents)? Comment la présence du Protecteur du citoyen affecte-t-elle le comportement des fonctionnaires? Dans cet article, l'auteur analyse une partie des données recueillies dans le cadre d'une analyse détaillée d'un échantillon représentatif de la fonction publique en Alberta effectuée pour déterminer l'idée que les fonctionnaires se font du Protecteur du citoyen, et kurs attitudes à son égard. Diverses evaluations des attitudes indiquent que, dans l'ensemble, la fonction publique provinciale se distingue par une attitude extrêmement positive vis-à-vis du Protecteur du citoyen. L'auteur examine plusieurs variables pour essayer d'expliquer pourquoi cette attitude est structurée de la sorte. Les conclusions permettent de formuler des prévisions au sujet du comportement des fonctionnaires au niveau des contacts fonctionnaire-client, lesquels font également l'objet d'une analyse comparative faisant intervenir des données directes et indirectes sur le comportement obtenues dans le cadre de l'étude.