The procedural presidency of George Bush

He is author of Searching for Safety; Risk and Culture; Budgeting; Speaking Truth to Power; The Beleaguered Presidency;and coauthor of Presidential Elections.     

Disentangling the Effects of Bounding and Mobility on Reports of Criminal Victimization

Replacement respondents who move into NCVS households after the initial bounding interview can introduce measurement error since their reports of victimization may be influenced by their mobility (actual experiences) and by their unbounded interview status (response error). Which of these factors affects reporting is unknown and is the focus of this research. The availability of incoming respondent data from the NCVS School Crime Supplement and mobility status from the NCVS provides a unique opportunity to study these effects separately. Both bounding and mobility were found to influence reporting; however, this influence was not consistent. Unlike findings from past research, bounding only had significant effects on reports of property victimization. Conversely, moving only significantly affected reports of violent victimization. As this study is the first to disentangle the effect of unbounded interview status from mobility on reports of victimization, the findings emphasize the need for further research to better understand these issues.     

How welfare reform affects young children: Experimental findings from Connecticut—A research note

As welfare‐to‐work reforms increase women's labor market attachment, the lives of their young children are likely to change. This note draws on a random‐assignment experiment in Connecticut to ask whether mothers' rising employment levels and program participation are associated with changes in young children's early learning and cognitive growth. Children of mothers who entered Connecticut's Jobs First program, an initiative with strict 21‐month time limits and work incentives, displayed moderate advantages in their early learning, compared with those in a control group. A number of potential mechanisms for this effect are explored, including maternal employment and income, home environment, and child care. Mothers in the new welfare program are more likely to be employed, have higher income, are less likely to be married, have more children's books in their home, and take their children to libraries and museums more frequently. However, these effects explain little of the observed gain in child outcomes. Other parenting practices and the home's social environment do explain early learning, but these remained unaffected by welfare reform. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Can public information programs affect risk perceptions?

This article provides the first controlled evaluation of how different information materials explaining the risks from radon influenced people's perceptions of these risks. Using a panel study, it was possible to observe how stated risk perceptions responded to information about indoor radon concentrations and brochures explaining the radon readings. The findings indicate that risk communication policies can be effective in modifying risk perceptions. Moreover, they have three specific implications for radon policy: (1) Public officials should not adopt strategies that provide minimal risk information to the public as a means of avoiding undue alarm, for this can have the reverse effect; (2) measures of the effectiveness of risk communication will depend on how education and behavior change are defined; (3) categorical guidelines about risk without quantitative information can lead people to treat the levels as thresholds, creating an artificial discontinuity in their responses to small changes in risk perceptions.     

The GATT and Environmental Policy: An Analysis of Potential Conflicts and Policy Reforms

The emergence of a worldwide environmental movement in the early 1960s accompanied an international expansion of economic activity and applied technology. The principal medium through which this expansion progressed was trade. In 1947, following World War II, a series of international agreements were negotiated to regularize international relations in finance, monetary policies, and trade. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was negotiated without anticipation of an international environmental movement and new policies at the national level that did not reflect, and might be inconsistent with, economic values. Conflict between policies for freedom of trade and environmental protection did not immediately emerge. With the adoption of numerous environmental protection measures in the United States and many other countries after 1969, the incompatibility of some trade and environmental policies became political issues. Trade policies are not confined to economic changes. Policy issues developing around the agreement and environmental protection are complex, and frequently involve technological issues, as in the Mexican tuna controversy discussed in this paper.