The progress of the betting in a baseball game

The development of the Internet has led to the creation of countless new markets, among them, online, in-game betting markets for sporting contests. We examine the behavior of prices as events unfold in a baseball game. Specifically, we compare the evolution of prices during a game with probability estimates generated by an empirical model of scoring in baseball. We find that price changes correspond closely to changes in the probability of winning, for plays of both small and dramatic impact. Nevertheless, data limitations inhibit the ability to make strong claims regarding the hypothesis of efficient pricing.     

Developing an index of EX-POST parliamentary oversight of public finance

For the past decade, scholars and practitioners have developed indexes to measure both legislative powers in general, and of the legislative power of the purse, in particular. Initial focus was on the development of a comprehensive index of legislative powers, and on assessing the ex-ante role of the legislature in the budget process.

This article substantially deepens extends previous research on ex-post oversight, by developing a more comprehensive index to measure ex-post oversight, by using more up-to-date data bases and by including more countries. We can partially confirm the emerging consensus that ex-post budget oversight is stronger in parliamentary – and especially Westminster – systems than in countries with other forms of government, thereby somewhat offsetting the previously identified weaknesses of Westminster parliaments in budget formulation.

When used in combination Wehner’s [2006. Assessing the power of the purse: An index of legislative budget institutions. Political Studies, 54, 767–785] index of ex-ante legislative oversight, this index provides a comprehensive picture of legislative power of the purse regarding the budget process.     

Subprime Lending Foreclosures,Crime, and Neighborhood Disorganization: Beyond Internal Dynamics

Research and theorizing about communities and crime has largely focused on internal neighborhood dynamics, to the neglect of factors external to the community that may be important processes in shaping community crime rates. We argue that subprime lending practices and the foreclosures that result may result in higher crime rates. We utilize data from the Summit County Lending Study, the Akron Police Department, and the 2000 U.S. Census to test the hypothesis that subprime lending foreclosures increase crime in urban neighborhoods. We find that subprime lending foreclosures have substantial impact on crime counts, net of controls. We conclude that additional research and theorizing about the role of external factors in the disorganization model is required.     

Borders and frontiers in women's history

Abstract

This article, based largely on London material, seeks to explore the interaction of various pressures from home, from school and from domestic education advocates on girls in their last two years at elementary school before leaving at fourteen. It examines in particular the extent and nature of resistance from some teachers and other educationists to overmuch domestic tuition for pupils, seeing this as leading to a narrowed perspective and as an unwarranted interference with the girls' right to a good general education. Given the strong official backing and widespread public agreement in the early twentieth century for the need to domesticate girls at school along approved lines, the determination of teachers and others to uphold the counter-claims of general education deserves detailed study.     

BELT AND ROAD DIPLOMACY

正China’s proactive and communicative foreign policy stance works within the global system In the era since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization(WTO)in2001,the country’s boom in productivity has brought massive benefits in terms of delivering prosperity and material wealth to the Chinese people,and indeed through GDP growth contributions to the outside     

Goals for a Global Economy

正The annual work conference on China’s economy was convened in Beijing in mid-December 2016. The outcomes are important for two reasons: the huge unpredictability in the current global political and economic situation, and the preparations being made for the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in late 2017.On the overall assessment of where China now stands, the economic front is deemed as being OK.