Constitutional order in a federal republic

A review article on Vincent Ostrom, The political theory of a compound republic: Designing the American experiment (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1987). xxx + 240 pages. 22.50 cloth;22.50 cloth; 8.95 paper.     

Estimating the size of criminal populations

The estimation of total population size for various phenomena of crime is an important factor critical for criminal justice policy formulation and criminological theory development. In this paper, methods are discussed for estimating the size of a criminal population from police records. Capture-recapture analysis techniques, borrowed from the biological sciences, are used to predict the size of population for migrating (or fleeing) fugitives and for street prostitutes. Heterogeneity and behavioral responses to previous police encounters are identified as major complicating factors. The basic problem is that the police records are virtually unaffected by a potentially large pool of cryptic criminals. It is shown how independently collected auxiliary data can address this problem.     

North Korea’s perspective on the U.S.-North Korea peace treaty

Kim Byong Hong is deputy director of the Institute for Disarmament and Peace, Pyongyang, DPRK. This paper was presented at a conference in Pyongyang in fall 1994.     

Richard Musgrave,public finance,and public choice

Review Article

Richard Musgrave, public finance, and public choice     

A multilevel analysis of fertility behavior in Korea

This analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility behavior in Korea develops a model that simultaneously considers both individual and community-level differences. The model includes 3 fertility process components: onset, early fertility, and later fertility, which are defined by reference to maternal age. The analysis traced the effects of respondents' education and childhood residence through their intermediate consequences for work experience before and after marriage, husbands' education and occupation, current residence, childhood mortality, and sex composition of offspring. The data were derived from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey. The results of this analysis indicate that socioeconomic development results in increased age at 1st birth and reduced number of children. Socioeconomic development is accompanied by desires for smaller family size, creating the conditions for fertility decline even in the absence of a national family planning program. The results for early fertility supported the hypothesis that there would be no effect of employment in the modern sector before marriage on fertility before age 30 years in traditional contexts, but a positive effect in transitional contexts. Aside from age at 1st birth, none of the micro coefficients were statistically significant in explaining the early fertility model. For later fertility, the relationships between micro and social context variables were negative, as hypothesized, but dampening effects of development due to family planning were not detected. Childhood residence played a small role in explaining fertility measures, but women's education did not work either additively or interactively.     

Strategy first in international joint ventures

International technology- based joint ventures are proliferating despite their inherent complexity and high risk of failure. US firms continue to employ international joint ventures as a vehicle for collaborative research and development (R & D); foreign investors prefer the joint venture for investing in the emerging market economies of Eastern Europe. Tipping the balance in favor of successful joint ventures requires a strategic approach from the very advent of entering into an international R&D arrangement: an approach in which clear objectives are set and alternative ways to reach these objectives are systematically evaluated. Several frameworks are presented that clarify and facilitate the decisionmaking process during the initial phases of considering a joint venture in which project objectives are developed, alternative R&D arrangements are evaluated, and potential partners are identified and eventually selected.