Juror adjustments to the reasonable doubt standard of proof

The standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt is based on the law's primary motivation to avoid false conviction even at the expense of increasing the probability of false acquittal. Individual jurors, however, have common sense motivations to make factually correct decisions by avoiding both types of error. As a result jurors may interpret the standard of reasonable doubt correctly but deviate from that interpretation in predictable ways when they apply the standard in court. This study makes three hypotheses: (1) jurors are less confident when deciding on acquittal than when deciding upon conviction, (2) conviction is associated with a downward adjustment of the interpreted stringency of the standard at the time of application, and (3) a highly stringent interpretation of the standard is associated with a severe downward adjustment of that stringency at the time of application. The study asked 260 juror-eligible participants to examine a trial scenario. The participants first interpreted the stringency of the legal standard on a probability scale. They then judged the probability of the defendant's guilt, decided on a verdict, and rated their confidence in that verdict. The findings strongly supported all three hypotheses. Application and implication of the study were discussed.     

Voter Ideology, the Economy, and the International Environment in Western Democracies, 1952–1989

Although it is commonly assumed that voters shift on an ideological spectrum over time, there has been relatively little scientific inquiry into the reasons for shifts in voter ideology. In this article, we attempt to explain why voter ideological shifts occur utilizing an interval measure of voter ideology recently developed by Kim and Fording. A pooled time-series analysis of 13 Western democracies for the period of 1952–1989 identifies several internal and external factors causing shifts in voter ideology. With respect to domestic influences, the state of the country's national economy, primarily inflation, seems to drive movement in voter ideology in a most significant way, but we find that the direction of this relationship is dependent on the ideological disposition of the incumbent government. With respect to international influences, we find significant ideological diffusion across neighboring countries of Western democracies. The effects of ideological diffusion are strongest within countries that are small relative to their neighbors. We also find that ideology is influenced by the international political environment, especially the level of East-West tension during the Cold War.     

Party Government and the "Cohesive Power of Public Plunder"

We argue that party government in the U.S. House of Representatives rests on two pillars: the pursuit of policy goals and the disbursement of particularistic benefits. Existing theories of party government argue that the majority party in the House is often successful in biasing policy outcomes in its favor. In the process, it creates "policy losers" among its own members who nevertheless support their party on procedural votes. We posit that the majority party creates an incentive for even the policy losers to support a procedural coalition through judicious distribution of particularistic benefits that compensates policy losers at a rate commensurate with the policy losses that they suffer. We evaluate our theory empirically using the concept of "roll rates" in conjunction with federal domestic outlays data for the period 1983–96. We find that, within the majority party, policy losers are favored in the distribution of "pork barrel" spending throughout this period.     

Public Trust in Government in Japan and South Korea: Does the Rise of Critical Citizens Matter?

Based on the Asia Barometer Survey of 2003, 2004, and 2006, government performance, citizen empowerment, and citizen satisfaction with self‐expression values are associated with public trust in government in Japan and South Korea. This study finds, first, that government performance on the economy, controlling political corruption, the quality of public services, crime, and attention to citizen input are significantly associated with broad public trust in government in both Japan and South Korea. Likewise, citizens’ satisfaction with their right to gather and demonstrate and to criticize the government is closely connected to trust in central and local governments in Japan. In South Korea, citizens’ satisfaction with their right to gather and demonstrate is intimately linked to trust in local government. Implications for government leadership to enhance performance, transparency, citizen participation, and public trust in government are analyzed and elaborated upon in this insightful study.     

The Fourth Indo-China War

Against the background of twentieth-century military conflict in Asia, the article concentrates on China’s contemporary relationships with outlying states, regions and provinces. Employing a version of Thomas Malthus’s political economy, we argue that population wars are an important, if often disguised, future of modern foreign relations. Through an examination of a various examples but specifically Tibet, Vietnam and Uyghurs in Xinjiang province, the article considers the current prospects of sinicization by demographic means. We conclude by describing ‘red capitalism’ in Asia as a combination of authoritarian states plus economicv success within the framework of a tributary Han civilization.     

马来西亚华人家庭语言的转变

马来西亚华人的语言在当地多语社会和现代化环境下备受冲击,而作为社会基本单位的家庭所使用的语言也受其影响而发生变化.本文根据在马来西亚进行的实地调查所得到的数据和实例,从夫妻、兄弟姐妹、父子以及祖孙用语四大角度来考察华人家庭语言的现状以及变化,研究对象包括福建、广东、客家、潮州和海南五大华人方言群体.研究证实,马来西亚华人的家庭语言正处于从华人方言逐渐转向华语和英语的历史性过渡中.     

马来西亚国民型华文小学多元化现象

马来西亚国民型华文小学(华小)是以华语为媒介语的小学。现今一些华小,学生的族群背景已开始从单一种族走向多元种族,即从早期以华裔学生为主到近期非华裔学生人数不断增长,学生来源不再维持单元化。多元化的学生背景给教学和行政带来了改变,尤其是校内的交际语言。根据对一所多元种族学生的华小所进行的观察,全校学生不只是华裔,三分之一是马来人、印度人和其他种族。校内的各族学生并用华语、马来语或其他各自母语来沟通。老师中也包括不谙华语的马来教师,因此校内行政运作的语言是华语和马来语并用,但逐步转向单用马来语。华小的各种改变和现状调查对国内外关心华文教育者有重要的参考价值。华小学生和教师的族群和母语背景不再单元化,意味着华文教育本质发生变化。华小走向多元化,是华文教育的一大挑战。