Using Bayes’ theorem in behavioural crime linking of serial homicide

Purpose. The study extends research by Santtila et al. (2008) by investigating the effectiveness of linking cases of serial homicide using behavioural patterns of offenders, analysed through Bayesian reasoning. The study also investigates the informative value of individual behavioural variables in the linking process. Methods. Offender behaviour was coded from official documents relating to 116 solved homicide cases belonging to 19 separate series. The basis of the linkage analyses was 92 behaviours coded as present or absent in the case based on investigator observations on the crime scene. We developed a Bayesian method for linking crime cases and judged its accuracy using cross‐validation. We explored the information added by individual behavioural variables, first, by testing if the variable represented purely noise with respect to classification, and second, by excluding variables from the original model, one by one, by choosing the behaviour that had the smallest effect on classification accuracy. Results. The model achieved a classification accuracy of 83.6% whereas chance expectancy was 5.3%. In simulated scenarios of only one and two known cases in a series, the accuracy was 59.0 and 69.2%, respectively. No behavioural variable represented pure noise but the same level of accuracy was achieved by analysing a set of 15, as analysing all 92 variables. Conclusion. The study illustrates the utility of analysing individual behavioural variables through Bayesian reasoning for crime linking. Feasible applied use of the approach is illustrated by the effectiveness of analysing a small set of carefully chosen variables.     

Running the gauntlet: An examination of initiation/hazing and sexual abuse in sport

Abstract

When does sport initiation become sexual abuse? What can sport organisations do to ensure that the practice of sport is a safe and high quality experience for all? In this paper research on the initiation practices used by the military and North American universities and sport teams is used to explore links between such practices and physical and sexual abuse. In particular, the dynamics of peer abuse, consent and expressions of masculinity are examined. We question whether there can be acceptable initiation practices in sport (Hoover, 1999) and challenge the place of these ‘macho rituals’ (Weinstein et at, 1995) in sport. We make particular use of an expanded version of the continuum of sexual abuse (Brackenridge, 1997b) and of the sport imperatives identified by Kirby, Greaves and Hankivsky (2000). The paper concludes with recommendations for best practices in athlete-centred sport.     

Relationship Between Intimate Partner Violence, Depressive Symptomatology, and Personality Traits

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) and personality disorder symptoms controlling for depressive state. Victims of IPV (n?=?176) and non-abused women (n?=?193) completed the Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology-Basic Questionnaire (DAPP-BQ), Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA), and Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). IPV victims scored higher than non-abused women on Intimacy Problems, and scored lower on Rejection traits, after adjustment for depressive symptoms. Severity of the IPV was related to Cognitive Distortion, Suspiciousness, Restricted Expression, and Intimacy Problems, and the length of the IPV was negatively associated with Rejection. The current study suggests only modest differences in personality traits between IPV and non-abused women. The DAPP-BQ traits associated with severity of IPV, in a dose-response manner, would partially reflect the symptoms of complex post-traumatic stress disorder (CPTSD), although this possibility deserves further study.     

“A garden had been left to grow wild there”: considering nature in Ivan Vladislavić’s Johannesburg

Johannesburg has frequently been subjected to critical examinations that conceive the city as a metropolis dominated by late capitalist excess and gold mining hyperbole. Along these particular lines, much of the literary scholarship that considers Vladislavi?’s city texts have focussed on his conception of the built environment that critiques its exploitative extractive history and its simulacral tendencies. However, sustained critical attention of his treatment of nature in the urban space has largely been neglected or underplayed. The natural Highveld environment, for Vladislavi?, occupies a fraught and liminal space in the city, pushed to the margins of a brutalizing modernity. Nature in Johannesburg, he opines, is a construction, an imposition and inheritance that belies the city’s colonial and European settler history. However, there are moments in which, when human attention is turned away, nature in its untended and generative capacity works to unmake the structural obduracy of the settled city. This manifests in episodes that embrace the quiet potency of wild gardens that disrupt the urban status quo.     

Y-chromosome haplotypes in Italy: the GEFI collaborative database.

A sample of 1176 males from 10 Italian regions have been typed for DYS19, DYS389-I, DYS389-II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, and DYS385. Individual haplotype data are available on line. A low degree of variation is present among regions. Use of this database is specifically recommended for forensic applications in Italy.