Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace

This article demonstrates how spatially dependent data witha categorical response variable can be addressed in a statisticalmodel. We introduce the idea of an autologistic model wherethe response for one observation is dependent on the value ofthe response among adjacent observations. The autologistic modelhas likelihood function that is mathematically intractable,since the observations are conditionally dependent upon oneanother. We review alternative techniques for estimating thismodel, with special emphasis on recent advances using Markovchain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We evaluate a highly simplifiedautologistic model of conflict where the likelihood of war involvementfor each nation is conditional on the war involvement of proximatestates. We estimate this autologistic model for a single year(1988) via maximum pseudolikelihood and MCMC maximum likelihoodmethods. Our results indicate that the autologistic model fitsthe data much better than an unconditional model and that theMCMC estimates generally dominate the pseudolikelihood estimates.The autologistic model generates predicted probabilities greaterthan 0.5 and has relatively good predictive abilities in anout-of-sample forecast for the subsequent decade (1989 to 1998),correctly identifying not only ongoing conflicts, but also newones.     

Why Democracies May Actually Be Less Reliable Allies

Recent research builds on the observation that democracies have more durable alliances to argue that democracies make more reliable allies. This need not be the case. Alliances serve as commitment devices, adding ex ante credibility to states' claims about ex post behavior. Variation in alliance durability must reflect differences in the desirability of formalizing alignments. Put simply, democracies are "most improved" by formal commitments. We offer two related explanations for why democracies might actually be less reliable alliance partners. Information costs for participating in policymaking and the advantages of organized interest groups combined with distributional incentives generated by the periodic turnover of governments may conspire to make informal commitments on the part of democracies problematic. Determining the net effect of democratic virtue and vice is best done empirically. We test alliance reliability by focusing on intervention, rather than on the duration or the number of commitments. Our results suggest that democracies make less reliable allies.     

Reputation reform strategies in local government: investigating Denmark and Norway

This article investigates reputation reform in Norwegian and Danish local government and whether they have the same strategy content depending on the degree of administrative involvement and municipality size. Political and administrative actors are likely to cultivate different types of reputation strategies (place or organisational reputation), which explicitly embrace the potentially diverging interests cultivated by the two types of actors. We use a comparative design and quantitative method with an empirical ambition to explore local government reputation strategies in two national contexts. We find that local government responses to reputation reform depend on the size of the municipality and the type of actors involved; the larger the municipality, the more the administration is involved. And the more that administrative actors are involved, the more the strategies target organisational reputation. The country-specific factors do not appear to be the most important determinants for reputation reform strategies.     

Curriculum Reform in The Common Core Era: Evaluating Elementary Math Textbooks Across Six U.S. States

Can a school or district improve student achievement simply by switching to a higher-quality textbook or curriculum? We conducted the first multi-textbook, multi-state effort to estimate textbook efficacy following widespread adoption of the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) and associated changes in the textbook market. Pooling textbook adoption and student test score data across six geographically and demographically diverse U.S. states, we found little evidence of differences in average achievement gains for schools using different math textbooks. We found some evidence of greater variation in achievement gains among schools using pre-CCSS editions, which may have been more varied in their content than post-CCSS editions because they were written for a broader set of standards. We also found greater variation among schools that had more exposure to a given text. However, these differences were small. Despite considerable interest and attention to textbooks as a low-cost, “silver bullet” intervention for improving student outcomes, we conclude that the adoption of a new textbook or set of curriculum materials, on its own, is unlikely to achieve this goal.     

Nationhood and Scandinavian naturalization politics: varieties of the civic turn

The neighboring countries of Denmark, Sweden, and Norway represent three very similar societies that differ markedly with respect to naturalization policy. While the general trend of a civic turn has brought about some of Europe’s strictest residence and citizenship requirements in Denmark, it has left the liberal Swedish policy largely untouched and the Norwegian somewhere in between the other two. How might such divergence in otherwise very similar societies be explained? This article investigates the role different conceptions of nationhood have played. It is argued that different conceptions of nationhood have mattered, but that the national differences have less to do with the normative content of nationhood than with how politicians tend to conceive of the integration process that newcomers must commit to in order to develop a strong sense of national belonging.     

Russia and its Western Neighbours: A Comparative Study of the Security Situation in the Black,Baltic and Barents Sea Regions

Abstract

Since Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in 2014, the security situation of Europe’s eastern ‘frontline states’ has undergone significant changes. In and around the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea, the scope and scale of military activity has grown, as has the frequency of Russian–Western military encounters. Despite the many similarities between the three regions, and despite the increased risk of negative spillover from one region to another, there are also noteworthy regional differences. As of today, the security challenges appear to be more severe and pressing in the southern and central part of the ‘frontline’ than in the northern.     

Law and Finance in Emerging Economies: Germany and Britain 1800–1913

By most standards, Britain in the 19th century was the world's leading financial nation, with more developed capital markets than any other country. An influential view in the law and finance literature argues that, holding macroeconomic factors constant, the different financial development can be attributed to more stringent disclosure regulation in Britain. Presenting a granular analysis of regulatory reform in Britain and Germany, this article shows that the level of disclosure regulation was largely comparable in both countries during the relevant period and that reform initiatives were not an exogenous stimulus of financial development, but evolved incrementally in response to changing market conditions. On the other hand, the legal regime governing the formation of stock corporations developed in diametrically opposed directions in the two countries as a result of concerted efforts by policy makers to change market conditions. The article argues that these rules, which were relevant to organisational choice and the availability of different sources of financing, stand out as the most striking difference between Germany and the UK.     

The limits and variety of risk‐based governance: The case of flood management in Germany and England

Risk‐based governance is argued by many to hold the promise of a more rational and efficient state, by making explicit the limitations of state interventions and focusing finite resources on those targets where probable damage is greatest. This paper challenges the assumption that risk‐based governance has the potential for universal and uniform application, by comparing contemporary flood management in Germany and England. On first inspection, flooding appears to be a paradigmatic case of risk colonizing European policy discourses, with the traditional notion of flood defense giving way to flood risk management in the context of climate change, increasingly frequent flood disasters, political and cost pressures on flood protection, and publicly available European‐wide flood assessments. Drawing on in‐depth empirical research, this paper shows how the role, and even the definition, of “risk” is institutionally shaped, and how the respective institutional environments of German and English flood management practices impede and promote risk colonization. In particular, the use and conceptualizations of risk in governance are variously promoted, filtered, or constrained by the administrative procedures, structures, and political expectations embedded within flood management and wider polities of each country. The findings of this research are important for the design and implementation of supranational policies and regulations that endorse risk‐based approaches, such as the recent EU Flood Directive, as well as scholarly debate as to how to legitimately define the limits of governance in the face of uncertainty and accountability pressures.     

Scientific Method and the Crimes of the Powerful

Over the past six decades researchers interested in the crimes of the powerful have developed a respectable body of literature. Owing to the empirical and theoretical richness of these contributions, the crimes of the powerful sub-field is ready for critical interventions to be made on the plane of scientific method. Moreover, such interventions have become increasingly necessary owing to the disciplinary hegemony of an orthodox empiricist approach which erects a problematic boundary between empirical representations of the crimes of the powerful and theoretical explanation. To aid a critique of this approach, this paper will employ the scientific framework of classical Marxism to decipher the peculiar problems which flow out of the orthodoxy’s method. It will be concluded that while classical Marxism offers a more rigorous framework for penetrating analyses of the crimes of the powerful, orthodox scholars have nevertheless made significant contributions which should also be utilised in future research.