The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling

Objectives

Current ‘geographical offender profiling’ methods that predict an offender’s base location from information about where he commits his crimes have been limited by being based on aggregate distributions across a number of offenders, restricting their responsiveness to variations between individuals as well as the possibility of axially distorted distributions. The efficacy of five ideographic models (derived only from individual crime series) was therefore tested.

Methods

A dataset of 63 burglary series from the UK was analysed using five different ideographic models to make predictions of the likely location of an offenders home/base: (1) a Gaussian-based density analysis (kernel density estimation); (2) a regression-based analysis; (3) an application of the ‘Circle Hypothesis’; (4) a mixed Gaussian method; and (5) a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) analysis. These tests were carried out by incorporating the models into a new version of the widely utilised Dragnet geographical profiling system DragNetP. The efficacy of the models was determined using both distance and area measures.

Results

Results were compared between the different models and with previously reported findings employing nomothetic algorithms, Bayesian approaches and human judges. Overall the ideographic models performed better than alternate strategies and human judges. Each model was optimal for some crime series, no one model producing the best results for all series.

Conclusions

Although restricted to one limited sample the current study does show that these offenders vary considerably in the spatial distribution of offence location choice. This points to important differences between offenders in the morphology of their crime location choice. Mathematical models therefore need to take this into account. Such models, which do not draw on any aggregate distributions, will improve geographically based investigative decision support systems.     

Variation is the Norm: A Landscape Analysis of Weighted Student Funding Implementation

School districts increasingly rely on weighted student funding (WSF), yet there is little research on this allocation model. This study collects more than 70 measures on each of 19 districts using WSF in 2018 for a landscape analysis of formula features and implementation practices. While districts report common reasons for adopting WSF (equity, flexibility, and transparency), we find no standard WSF model. Homegrown formulas and nonformula features and exemptions reflecting local context are the norms, resulting in substantial differences. Nearly all districts continue to budget with average salaries (likely limiting equity) but grant principals flexibility on staffing, stipends, and contracts.     

Predicting Short-Term Institutional Aggression in Forensic Patients: A Multi-Trait Method for Understanding Subtypes of Aggression

Accurately predicting inpatient aggression is an important endeavor. The current study investigated inpatient aggression over a six-month time period in a sample of 152 male forensic patients. We assessed constructs of psychopathy, anger, and active symptoms of mental illness and tested their ability to predict reactive and instrumental aggression. Across all levels of analyses, anger and active symptoms of mental illness predicted reactive aggression. Traits of psychopathy, which demonstrated no relationship to reactive aggression, were a robust predictor of instrumental aggression. This study (a) reestablishes psychopathy as a clinically useful construct in predicting inpatient instrumental aggression, (b) provides some validation for the reactive/instrumental aggression paradigm in forensic inpatients, and (c) makes recommendations for integrating risk assessment results into treatment interventions.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms,Relationship Adjustment,and Relationship Aggression in a Sample of Female Flood Victims

This study tested a model examining the interrelationships among posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, intimate relationship adjustment, and intimate relationship aggression in a sample of 205 adult female flood victims. At the bivariate level, higher PTSD symptoms were associated with higher physical and psychological aggression victimization, poorer relationship adjustment, and higher physical and psychological aggression perpetration. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses indicated that relationship aggression victimization influenced aggression perpetration directly, and in the case of physical aggression, indirectly through its relationship with PTSD symptoms and relationship adjustment. The influence of PTSD symptoms on physical aggression perpetration was fully explained by poorer relationship adjustment. These findings extend prior work from other traumatized populations documenting associations between variables reflecting PTSD symptomatology and indices of relationship functioning, and indicate a need for further investigation in this area of inquiry. This research was supported in part by a grant to Patricia A. Resick from the National Institute of Mental Health (1-R01-MH55542).     

Experiences of Stalking Victims and Requests for Help in Three European Countries. A Survey

Previous research by the Modena Group on Stalking (MGS) regarding awareness and recognition of stalking by police officers and general practitioners using case scenarios showed significant differences across three countries. It was also hypothesized that victims used different pathways when seeking help. To explore the experience of requesting help by victims of stalking in different European countries a detailed survey was completed by 391 victims of stalking in Belgium (n = 145), Italy (n = 126) and Slovenia (n = 120). The research confirmed the significant intensity and duration of stalking and psychological distress for victims. Victims used several pathways to survive stalking. Some victims reported that informal interventions they or family/friends implemented were effective, but the majority had to have recourse to helping agencies. Significant differences in help seeking behaviour were found between the three countries. In Belgium victims contacted the police, as well as other helping agencies, more often and more precociously than in Italy and Slovenia. Restriction orders against the stalker were considered the most effective intervention. Police were regarded as the least supportive agency, taking victims less seriously, and not being particularly effective at stopping the stalkers. Police were ranked after family/friends, lawyers and colleagues, with regards effectiveness, except in Belgium, where Police’s effectiveness was ranked second after lawyers. Stalking often requires the mobilization of multiple helping agencies by victims and it is important that victims are aware of what help is available to them and that agencies become more sensitive to their needs.     

Targeted Neighborhood Sampling: A New Approach for Recruiting Abusive Couples

We conducted two studies to test the utility of a new strategy for recruiting couples experiencing intimate partner violence. This new strategy, Targeted Neighborhood Sampling, involves utilizing police reports of family fight calls to target particular areas within a city for recruitment efforts. Study I compared the efficacy of using this method to recruit a random versus a convenience sample. Results demonstrated that Targeted Neighborhood Sampling was most effective when recruiting a convenience sample of participants who responded to flyers left at their residences. Study II used a convenience sample and replicated the findings from Study I. Across the two studies, 40.4% of those who called after receiving a flyer experienced male-to-female partner violence within the past year. In addition, we combined data across studies and correlated types of violence the couples experienced with variables commonly associated with abuse. Psychological aggression, physical assault, and injury were all positively associated with reports of demand-withdrawal and mutual avoidance during conflict, as well as depression and symptoms of post traumatic disorder syndrome. Sexual coercion was associated with drug abuse. These results demonstrate the utility and validity of Targeted Neighborhood Sampling.

Morphometric criteria for sexing juvenile human skeletons using the ilium

Previous attempts to sex juvenile skeletons have focused on the application of qualitative or semi-quantitative techniques. This study applies a variety of geometric morphometric methods, including eigenshape analysis, to this problem. Six metric criteria for the ilia were tested with the aim of investigating previous ideas concerning sexually diagnostic characters. This study uses 25 ilia from juveniles of known age and sex from Christ Church, Spitalfields, London. Ninety-six percent of juvenile ilia were correctly identified as male or female using the shape of the greater sciatic notch. Identification accuracy is shown to improve with age for several criteria. Males were identified to a higher accuracy than females. Application of geometric techniques improves the understanding of the relationship between age, sex, and shape and the clarity with which these relationships can be quantified. Archaeological and forensic relevance of the results are discussed with recommendations for future application.     

The Role of Perceived Parental Knowledge on Emerging Adults’ Risk Behaviors

The purpose of this study was to gain a clearer understanding of the relation between parents’ knowledge of their emerging-adult children and emerging adults’ risk behaviors. Participants included 200 undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 25 (121 women, 78 men; M _age = 19.59, SD = 1.62) and both of their parents. Results revealed that knowledge of the emerging-adult child’s activities varied as a function of parent- and child-reports, and that child outcomes associated with parental knowledge were generally positive, including less drinking, drug use, and risky sexual behavior (although this varied as a function of reporter). The links between maternal knowledge and lower drug and alcohol use were particularly strong in the presence of maternal closeness. Implications for understanding the parent–child relationship during the transition to adulthood were discussed.

Associations Between Shyness and Internalizing Behaviors,Externalizing Behaviors,and Relationships during Emerging Adulthood

Many studies have documented the ways in which shyness can be a barrier to personal well-being and social adjustment throughout childhood and adolescence; however, less is known regarding shyness in emerging adulthood. Shyness as experienced during emerging adulthood may continue to be a risk factor for successful development. The purpose of this study was to compare shy emerging adults with their non-shy peers in (a) internalizing behaviors, (b) externalizing behaviors, and (c) close relationships. Participants included 813 undergraduate students (500 women, 313 men) from a number of locations across the United States. Results showed that relatively shy emerging adults, both men and women, had more internalizing problems (e.g., anxious, depressed, low self-perceptions in multiple domains), engaged in fewer externalizing behaviors (e.g., less frequent drinking), and experienced poorer relationship quality with parents, best friends, and romantic partners than did their non-shy peers.