No Shortcuts to the "End of History"

Pondering all the failed revolutions throughout the Third World over the last 50 years, the literary journalist Ryszard Kapuscinsci once offered this summary the lesson of the 20th century: There are no short cuts in history. Using force to try to accelerate social progress and political change before its time will fail.     

Europe’s Jewish problem

He is affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. He is author of Applied Mathematical Demography; Population Change and Social Policy;and co-author (with Wilhelm Flieger) of World Populations: An Analysis of Vital Data.     

Are effective drug courts an urban phenomenon?: considering their impact on recidivism among a nonmetropolitan adult sample in Washington State

Drug courts represent a significant development in criminal justice during the past 15 years, and a small but growing literature suggests they are effective in reducing drug use and criminal behavior. Most of these studies evaluate the effects of drug courts in urban areas, however. This study adds to this literature by considering the effects of this intermediate sanction among adult offenders in a small, nonmetropolitan county of northwest Washington. Using a retrospective comparison group of matched control participants, these results show that the prevalence and incidence of rearrest is significantly lower among drug court graduates than probationers. These differences in recidivism persist even when the age, race, gender, and number of days at risk in the community are statistically controlled. Among those who did recidivate, drug court graduates did not significantly differ from controls in duration to first arrest and arrest incidence. Policy implications are discussed.     

Changing patterns of addiction and public aid receipt: tracking the unintended consequences of welfare reform

Sharp declines in welfare rolls since the passage of welfare reform legislation have led many to label it a social policy success. Using data from prereform and postreform samples of welfare applicants and recipients, as well as ethnographic data on welfare reform implementation, we examine three hypotheses based on concerns raised during the welfare reform debate about the possible effects of new policies on substance abusers and addicts: First, they would be "scared off," or discouraged from applying to aid by welfare's new requirements surrounding work and treatment. Second, they might be "weeded out," or face discrimination in the application process because of concerns about the difficulty of moving them successfully from welfare to work. Third, they might be "bumped down," or shifted to local aid programs rather than moving from welfare to self-sufficiency. Our empirical analysis finds no evidence of scaring off or weeding out, and some evidence of bumping down. Using ethnographic data, we offer some possible explanations for these findings by placing them in the context of policy change and implementation in the years following welfare reform.