EXPECTATIONS AND WELFARE WORK: WIN IN NEW YORK CITY

Work requirements for welfare recipients have done l i t t l e to reduce the welfare rolls. The usual explanation that limited skills and openings prevent recipients working is unpersuasive, since low-skilled work seems to be quite widely available. This study of the Work Incentive (WIN) program, the main welfare work program, in New York City found that whether recipients work depends mainly on whether WIN seriously expects them to. Thus, the welfare work problem is more political than economic.
It lies in our reluctance to obligate recipients to function socially as we would other people.     

Rulemaking Amidst Growing Diversity: A Club-of-Clubs Approach to WTO Reform and New Issue Selection

The diverse nature of World Trade Organization (WTO) membershipmakes it highly unlikely that members will all be willing andable to sign on to the full range of agreements that many membersmight find desirable. The paper proposes an approach in whichthe WTO would supplement its core agreements with additional‘clubs’ to which only some members would subscribe.The approach is a compromise in which diversity can co-existwith a more extensive set of commitments for willing members.The paper provides suggestions for how the clubs would be selectedand how they would operate. Clubs would be chosen where theycould help promote the WTO’s central missions: loweringbarriers to trade, reducing the discriminatory effects of domesticpolicies, and enhancing economic development through trade.All WTO members would participate in negotiating club rules,but members would be free not to join. Clubs would use the DisputeSettlement Understanding (DSU) to deal with disputes, but suspensionof concessions in the event of violations would be confinedto the provisions of the same club in which the violation occurred.     

Accurately assessing elderly fall deaths using hospital discharge and vital statistics data

Historically, fatal injury monitoring and surveillance have relied on mortality data derived from death certificates (DC). However, problems associated with utilizing DC have been well documented. Recently, access to and utilization of hospital discharge data (HDD) have offered a new and important secondary source of data regarding in-hospital deaths. However, studies have shown that discrepancies between the HDD and the corresponding DC often exist. This discrepancy was especially evident when comparing HDD to the vital statistics data (VSD) for deaths by falls among those aged 65 and over in 19 states.This was a retrospective forensic review of elderly (age 65 and over) fall-associated fatalities (E880-E888) identified from HDD and VSD in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, between 1997 and 1998. Seventy-seven cases were identified, with the original manner of death listed as natural (34), suicide (1), and accidental (42) on the DC. Following a forensic review of the cases, the manner of the death on the DC should have been changed from natural to accidental in 28% (n = 12) of the cases, representing an undercount in the VSD. Undercounts were due to a failure of clinicians to account for the significance of a fall event that contributed to subsequent pathology and death. In addition, in that 22% (n = 17) of the HDD fall-associated deaths, the fall did not contribute directly or sequentially to the underlying cause of death, thereby representing an overcount in the HDD.Based on these findings we recommend (1) elderly fall surveillance systems should only count HDD E-coded falls that demonstrate a serious traumatic injury which directly or subsequently results in death, (2) all in-hospital fall-associated deaths should be reported to and reviewed by coroner/Medical Examiner offices for determination of the cause and manner of death, and (3) physicians should be better educated in properly completing death certificates.     

Policy Studies And Political Science

Studies of "policy" and l'policymakingll have proliferated recently. One reason is the serious policymaking difficulties of American and other Western governments. Earlier political science did not address these problems well because of its concentration on political input processes rather than outputs. Most policy studies either evaluate programs 0' explain cases of policymaking, The approach proposed here, called public policy, does both. Analyses of preferred options are played off against the limitations of process, and vice versa. This conception is illustrated and the problems posed by it are discussed.     

Public interest lobbies: membership and influence

In this paper we examine empirically the determinants of membership in Common Cause and Public Citizen, two “public interest” lobbies. We find that the only variable significantly associated with membership in these organizations is number of college graduates in a state. We also examine voting by Congressmen on five issues on which one of the lobbies had taken a stand, and we find that in four cases the number of members in a state in the lobby is significantly associated with voting on the bill by Congressmen from the state, after adjusting for all economic variables. We interpret these results to indicate that participation by citizens does have some impact on the legislative process.     

Returning to Delinquency: Factors Effecting the Survivorship of Juvenile Shoplifters

This article examines a program designed to provide a family court with a means of lessening the probability that youths on probation for shoplifting will return to criminal behavior. A single staff member within the family court screened possible participants, all of whom were defined as first-time shoplifting offenders and had been assigned to formal or informal probation. Each individual was invited to participate in a four-hour clinic, during which time the realities and possible consequences of shoplifting were explained. If they were able to successfully complete six months of supervised probation, then only the administrative record remained; the conviction itself was expunged. Over a period of nine months, a total of 154 juveniles were invited; however, only 100 actually took part in all facets of the program. A total of 30 clinic attendees and 14 nonparticipants were excluded from the present analysis, owing to missing data, or the fact that at the time of follow-up, they were legally classified as adults. The prior and subsequent court contacts of 110 subjects are reviewed. While less than 3% of either group had subsequent shoplifting arrests, nearly 26% of the program group and 35% of the nonparticipants were rearrested. Factors associated with long-term success and failure are examined. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed, with specific grounding in the shoplifting literature and the concepts of juvenile diversion and “net-widening.”     

Mediating science-intensive policy disputes

Public policy disputes involving complex scientific issues usually entail conflicts not only over those scientific issues, but also over the distribution of gains and losses. The presence of scientific or technical dimensions to a dispute should not be allowed to mask underlying distributional considerations. On the other hand, science-intensive disputes require special attention. Merely resolving distributional conflicts without incorporating the best scientific judgment will produce unwise and potentially dangerous results. The usual adversarial approach that characterizes the handling of such disputes by agencies and courts is less than ideal for creating an understanding of scientific evidence or the resolution of scientific differences. A process of mediation, already applied in a number of significant cases, offers strong promise as a superior approach.