It's Not You,It's Me: Determinants of Voluntary Legislative Turnover in Canada

The Canadian federal parliament is unique among Westminster parliamentary democracies due to the unusually high level of voluntary and involuntary MP turnover that occurs at each general election. This article builds on existing research to test the hypothesis that the MP career duration is related to MPs' expectations about parliamentary roles, insofar as voluntary turnover is concerned. Data on MPs drawn from historical records collected by the Library of Parliament and from surveys conducted in 1993 and 2001 ¹ are used to develop an event history model which estimates the hazard of voluntary career termination when different parliamentary roles are taken into consideration. Findings suggest that a number of individual factors play a role in voluntary turnover, most notably that MPs who enter Parliament hoping to affect policy are the most likely to move on.     

CIVIC COMMUNITY IN THE HINTERLAND: TOWARD A THEORY OF RURAL SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND VIOLENCE*

Drawing on the civic community literature, this article explicates a theoretical model to explain variation in rates of violence across rural communities. It is hypothesized that rural communities with a stable population base that is locally invested, a vibrant participatory civic culture with a well‐developed noneconomic institutional base, and a robust economically independent middle class will have lower rates of violent crime. Results from the analysis of data for more than 1,000 rural counties reveal that the 11 variables used to operationalize the theory are empirically distinguishable from indicators of resource disadvantage and form three well‐defined indices: a residential stability/local investment factor, a local capitalism/independent middle class factor, and a civic engagement factor. Negative binomial regression models confirm that violent crime rates are generally much lower in communities that score high on these dimensions. Implications of these findings for future macrolevel criminological research are discussed.     

Conserving the Constitution? The Conservative Party and Democratic Renewal

In 2008 David Cameron declared that the Conservative party was 'ready for government' and suggested that 'the change we need is not just from Labour's old policies to our new policies… It's about a change from old politics to new politics'. This 'new politics' narrative is something of a cliché: British constitutional history reveals a regular pattern whereby opposition parties renege upon implementing far-reaching constitutional and democratic reforms once they win power. It is in this context that this article draws upon documentary analysis and a number of interviews to examine the Conservative party's position on constitutional reform and democratic renewal. It concludes that although the Conservative party has spent the last decade decrying the 'destruction' of the constitution it has undertaken little detailed preparatory work in relation to how it might seek to alter the governance of Britain. As a result the research presented in this article provides a number of insights into elite politics, strategic game-playing and executive veto capacities within a context of growing political disengagement from politics and falling levels of trust in politics.     

TOWARD A NATIONAL ESTIMATE OF POLICE USE OF NONLETHAL FORCE*

Research Summary Despite frequent calls for national data on police use of force, the literature is dominated by unrepresentative samples from a small number of primarily urban jurisdictions, inconsistent definitions of force, and differing universes for the computation of rates. Among 36 publications that report on the amount of nonlethal force used by the police, rates vary from 0.1% to 31.8%. To improve our ability to estimate the amount of nonlethal force in the United States, we employ data from two sources: the Police‐Public Contact Survey (PPCS) and the Survey of Inmates in Local Jails (SILJ). Using comparable measures from these surveys, we estimate that the police use or threaten to use force in 1.7% of all contacts and in 20.0% of all arrests. The PPCS accounts for 87% of the total force incidents derived from both surveys. Males, youths, and racial minorities report greater rates of police use of force, but multivariate models highlight the role of potentially provoking behaviors on the likelihood and severity of force. Policy Implications Improved estimates from the combined PPCS‐SILJ samples support the proposition that police use force infrequently and at the lower end of the severity scale. Reported amounts of force vary based on respondent race, sex, and age, but greater variation in police use of force is explained by suspect behavior. The combined PPCS‐SILJ sample provides a more representative basis for estimating the rate and correlates of nonlethal force. State and local estimates from less representative samples can be interpreted in light of these findings. National estimates could be improved by devoting sufficient resources to support the collection of agency records of both lethal and nonlethal force.     

Legal Truths and Falsities*

This paper has a two‐pronged thesis. First, laws should be understood as making factual claims about the moral order. Second, the truth or falsity of these claims depends as much on the content of the law as on whether the lawmaker has political authority. In particular, laws produced by legitimate authorities are successful as laws when they guide subjects' behavior by giving subjects authoritative reasons for action. This paper argues that laws produced by legitimate authorities accomplish this task (i) by being on their own sufficient to change the moral state of affairs, which (ii) thereby generates for people new moral reasons to act that they can read right off of the legislation.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF TITTLE'S CONTROL BALANCE THEORY*

Classic statements of control theory propose that individuals who are controlled or bonded will be more likely to be deterred from deviance, while those who are not controlled or bonded will be more likely to turn to deviance. In a recent restatement of control theory, Tittle (1995) offers an alternative viewpoint. Though he agrees that a lack of control (a control deficit) can lead to repressive forms of deviance (predation, defiance, and submission), Tittle also asserts that overcontrol (a control surplus) may lead to autonomous types of deviance (exploitation, plunder, and decadence). Terming it control balance theory, Tittle argues that the amount of control to which one is subject relative to the amount of control one can exercise (i.e., the control ratio) affects not only the probability that one will engage in a deviant act, but also the specific form or type of deviance. In this article, we focus on one of the key hypotheses of control balance theory: an individual's control balance ratio predicts deviant behavior. We examine this hypothesis using two vignettes designed to investigate the repressive acts of predation and defiance. Segmented, nonlinear regression results yield mixed evidence in that both control surpluses and control deficits significantly predict predation and defiance. The theoretical implications of our results for control balance theory are discussed.