A Social Democratic Future? Political and Institutional Hurdles in Scotland

The Nordic model has long been admired in Scotland, and has featured prominently in aspects of the Scottish independence referendum debate. This article explores the difficulties in instituting a similar system here, identifying two significant barriers: the institutional setting (the powers available to Scottish politicians) and the partisan nature of competition between the two parties that might be able to deliver upon such a commitment. It concludes that the prospects of moving towards a Nordic‐style social investment model are slight, given the political, institutional and attitudinal barriers in place.     

Thoughts on Juvenile Justice Systems and Research

This article updates comments published in this journal in 1994 about the nature of the American juvenile justice system, which laid out reasons that it might not serve as a useful model for other nations. Since that time, the US system has moved further right towards the justice model and away from the welfare model. Individualistic philosophies and political conservatism have combined to produce a more adult-like and punitive juvenile system, applied to increasing numbers of minors and to increasingly younger minors. Successful demonstrations of community absorption or treatment have been too few to balance the rightward direction. European scholars are urged to undertake increased studies in two critical areas: (1) the nature, functions, and comparative differences in their juvenile justice systems, and (2) the nature of local communities and their contributions to patterns of delinquency.     

A Comparison of Logistic Regression,Classification and Regression Tree,and Neural Networks Models in Predicting Violent Re-Offending

Previous studies that have compared logistic regression (LR), classification and regression tree (CART), and neural networks (NNs) models for their predictive validity have shown inconsistent results in demonstrating superiority of any one model. The three models were tested in a prospective sample of 1225 UK male prisoners followed up for a mean of 3.31 years after release. Items in a widely-used risk assessment instrument (the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20, or HCR-20) were used as predictors and violent reconvictions as outcome. Multi-validation procedure was used to reduce sampling error in reporting the predictive accuracy. The low base rate was controlled by using different measures in the three models to minimize prediction error and achieve a more balanced classification. Overall accuracy of the three models varied between 0.59 and 0.67, with an overall AUC range of 0.65–0.72. Although the performance of NNs was slightly better than that of LR and CART models, it did not demonstrate a significant improvement.     

Alberta's and Ontario's liquor boards: Why such divergent outcomes?

Abstract: The provinces of Alberta and Ontario have chosen very different methods to distribute alcoholic beverages: Alberta privatized the Alberta Liquor Control Board (ALCB) in 1993 and established a private market to sell beverage alcohol, while Ontario, in stark contrast, opted to retain and expand the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO). This article examines the reasons for the divergent policy choices made by Ralph Klein and Mike Harris' Conservative governments in each province. The article draws on John Kingdon's “multiple streams decision-making model,” to examine the mindsets of the key decision-makers, as well as “historical institutionalism,” to organize the pertinent structural, historical and institutional variables that shaped the milieu in which decision-makers acted. Unique, province-specific political cultures, histories, institutional configurations (including the relative influence of a number of powerful actors), as well as the fact that the two liquor control boards were on opposing trajectories towards their ultimate fates, help to explain the different decisions made by each government. Endogenous preference construction in this sector, furthermore, implies that each system is able to satisfy all relevant stakeholders, including consumers.     

Pornography and men's practices

Abstract

Summary: This article addresses the inter-relationship between pornography and sexual violence. Its particular focus is a political analysis of pornography within a context of gender politics, using concepts from feminist standpoint theory and recent theorising about men. It examines extant research concerning the effects of pornography, and critiques the predominantly positivist assumptions of such research. The article concludes with some ideas for enabling men to challenge pornography and its uses.     

Current psychopathology in previously assaulted older adults

Older adult women age 55+ years (N = 549) were interviewed as part of a population-based epidemiological research study of lifetime experiences with physical and sexual assault and current mental health problems. Although overall rates of psychopathology were low, producing very small cells for comparison, women who reported experiencing physical assault an average of 28 years previously were more likely to present with past year substance abuse, depression, and avoidance and reexperiencing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) than those with no previous physical or sexual assault. Women who reported experiencing sexual assault an average of 50 years previously were more likely to present with autonomic arousal and avoidance symptoms of PTSD than those with no prior sexual assault. The aforementioned findings should be considered with caution, however, as sample cell sizes were minimal for all but the PTSD symptom subtypes. Mental health service implications for older adults are discussed.     

Irrationality, evidence-based medicine and the standard of care

The determination of the legal standard of care in Australia for medical diagnosis and treatment has gone through three apparent phases in modern times: the Bolam era, the post-Rogers v Whitaker era, and the current Civil Liability Acts era. It is conventionally accepted that the two shifts linking these phases were a jettisoning of the Bolam principle in Rogers and a return to a modified Bolam principle in the Civil Liability legislation, with the post-Rogers interregnum being a time of a court-imposed standard. This story is somewhat inaccurate. The Bolam test relied more on practice accepted at the time as proper by a responsible body of medical opinion rather than the practice of a "responsible body of medical men". The ability of post-Rogers courts to override medical evidence was more a rhetorical power than an actual one. And the irrationality condition, which reserves the right to override medical opinion under the Civil Liability Acts, is more dependent on sound evidence than the terminology might suggest. It is not so much that the legal standard of care has changed in dramatic ways as that the content of competent professional opinion has evolved as medical research and practice have developed. There is greater continuity than is usually granted, throughout the three phases, of the standard's reliance on current best evidence and opinion. This is more easily seen with the advent of evidence-based medicine.