Distributional impact assessments and the record of the Coalition Government: the tyranny of numbers without interpretation

This paper reflects upon the gross discrepancies between the reassurances given in 2010 by the 2010-2015 UK Coalition Government that their budget and welfare cuts would fall ‘fairly’ across the income spectrum, and the reality of what had happened by the end of that government. It asks how the ‘distributional impact assessment’ provided with the 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review could have been so wrong. In seeking to answer this question, types of systematic bias are considered along with a discussion of ‘marginality’ in assessments of impact. Drawing upon the role of ‘power’ in impact assessment, it traces the ways in which methodological assumptions can eclipse the real life effects of policies behind ‘the average’ as well as by the unfair selection of the ‘unit-of-analysis’.     

A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Financial aspects of Chinese planning

Abstract

Economic policy in China is designed to serve the general political line. In their talks with me in April 1973, members of the Budget Bureau of the Ministry of Finance made it unmistakably clear that financial considerations are subordinate to economic ones, which in turn are determined by politics.     

Mischief Reef: Geopolitics and implications

This article examines the Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal disputes in the context of the dynamic political interaction between China, the Philippines, ASEAN and the United States. A review of recent development indicates that these particular incidents and the Spratly disputes in general have increased in intensity and complexity drawing in ASEAN and the United States. China is the main player and several conclusion are drawn regarding its strategy and tactics. We see the status quo as unstable and propose a few possible directions of actions in the interest of conflict prevention.     

The work of the economic commission for Asia and the far east of the United Nations

Central Asia

To the Great Ocean. The Taming of Siberia and the Building of the Trans‐Siberian Railway. By Harmon Tupper. London, Seeker and Warburg, 1965. Pp. xv+ 536. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. 55s.

Afghanistan. Highway of Conquest. By Arnold Fletcher. Cornell University Press, 1965. Pp. 325. Illus. Bibliog. Index. $7.50.

South and South East Asia

The Security of Southern Asia. By D. E. Kennedy. London, Chatto and Windus, for the Institute for Strategic Studies, 1965. Pp. xi + 308. Maps. Index. 35s.

The Glass Curtain between Asia and Europe. Ed. by Raghavan Iyer. London, Oxford University Press, 1965. Pp. xii + 356. Bibliog. 52s.

South and East Asia since 1800. By Victor Purcell. Cambridge University Press, 1965. Pp. 228. Maps. Index. 25s.

Asian Economic Development. Ed. by Cranley Onslow. London, Wiedenfeld and Nicolson, 1965. Pp. xi + 243. Index. 36s.

The Story of Malaysia. By Harry Miller. London, Faber, 1965. Pp. 264. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. 30s.

Communalism and the Political Process in Malaya. By K. J. Ratnam. London, Oxford University Press, 1965. Pp. 248. Sketch map. Bibliog. Index. 48s.

The Development of British Malaya 1896–1909. By Chai Hon‐Chan. London, Oxford University Press, 1964. Pp. 364. Maps. Bibliog. Index. Cloth 50s. Paper 33s.

Indonesia. By Leslie Palmier. London, Thames and Hudson, 1965. Pp. 240. Maps. Illus. 30s.

Mohammed, Marx and Marhaen. The Roots of Indonesian Socialism. By Jeanne S. Mintz. London, Pall Mall Press, 1965. Pp. 224. Bibliog. Index. 36s.

Communism in North Vietnam. By P. J. Honey. London, Ampersand Books, 1965. Pp. 206. 7s. 6d.

South West Asia

The Arab Cold War 1958–1964. A Study of Ideology in Politics. By Malcolm Kerr. Published for Chatham House by Oxford University Press, 1965. Pp. 139. 10s. 6d.

The Struggle for Syria. A Study of Post‐war Arab Politics 1945–1958. By Patrick Seale. London, Oxford University Press for Chatham House, 1965. Pp. 344. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. 42s.

Revolutions and Military Rule in the Middle East. The Northern Tier. By George M. Haddad. New York, Robert Speller and Sons, Publishers, Inc., 1965. Pp. 251. Illus. Bibliog. Index. $6.00.

The Economic Development of Kuwait. Report of Missions organized by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development at the request of the Government of Kuwait. London, Oxford University Press, 1965. Pp. xiii+ 194. Maps. Index. 52s.

Far east

China in Crisis. By Sven Lindqvist. Trans, by Sylvia Clayton. London, Faber, 1965. Pp. 125. lllus. 25s.

China and the Bomb. By Morton H. Halperin. London, Pall Mall Press, 1965. Pp. 166. Index. 30s.

The Communist States at the Crossroads between Moscow and Peking. Edited by Adam Bromke. With an Introduction by Philip E. Mosely. London and New York, Praeger, 1965. Pp. 270. Index. Cloth 45s. Paperback 16s.

Chinese Civilization and Bureaucracy. By Etienne Balazs. New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1964. Pp. xix + 309. Chronology. Index. 63s.

Report from a Chinese Village. By Jan Myrdal. New York, Pantheon Books; a Division of Random House, 1965. Pp. 374. Illus. $6.95.

Biography and Autobiography

High Noon of Empire. India under Curzon. By Michael Edwardes. London, Eyre and Spottiswoode, 1965. Pp. 266. Map. Illus. Bibliog. Index. 35s.

A Roll of Honour: The Story of the Indian Army 1939–45. By Major‐General J. G. Elliott. London, Cassell, 1965. Pp. 392. Maps. Illus. 36s.

The Memoirs of a Malayan Official. By Victor Purcell. London, Cassell, 1965. Pp. 373. Map. Illus. Index. 42s.

One More River. By Gordon Hunt. London, Collins, 1965. Pp. 255. Illus. 25s.

Lady Wu. By Lin Yutang. New York, G. P. Putnam's Sons, 1965. Pp. 255. $4.95.

Culture and civilization

Islam and International Relations. Edited by J. Harris Proctor. London, Pall Mall Press, 1965. Pp. 221. 42s.

Islamic Art. By David Talbot Rice. London, Thames and Hudson, 1965. Pp. 286. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. 18s.

The Fortified Cities of India. By Sidney Toy. London, Heinemann, 1965. Pp. 118. Maps. Illus. Index. 50s.

Indian Pandits in the Land of Snow. By Sarat Chandra Das, Calcutta, 1893. Reprinted, with Introduction by Nirmal Chandra Sinha, by Firma K. L. Mukhopadhyay, Calcutta, 1965. Pp. xii + 134. Rs. 10.

History

The Course of Empire. The Arabs and their Successors. By. Lt.‐General Sir John Glubb. London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1965. Pp. 424. Maps. Index. 42s.

Centralised Legislation. A History of the Legislative System of British India from 1834 to 1861. By S. V. Desika Char. London, Asia Publishing House, 1963. Pp. xv + 359. Bibliog. Index. 45s.

The Agrarian System of Mughal India. By Irfan Habib. London, Asia Publishing House, 1963. Published for the Department of History, Aligarh Muslim University. Pp. ix + 453. Appendices. Bibliog. Index. 50s.

Agrarian Relations and Early British Rule in India. A Case Study of the Ceded and Conquered Provinces (Uttar Pradesh), 1801–1833. By Sulekh Chandra Gupta. Asia Publishing House, London, 1963. Pp. xix + 338. Glossary. Bibliog. Index. 45s.

Nepal and the East India Company. By B. D. Sanwal. Asia Publishing House, London, 1965. Pp. viii + 345. Maps. Appendices. Index. 45s.

The Kol Insurrection of Chota‐Nagpur. By J. C. Jha. Thacker, Spink and Co. (1933) Private Ltd., Calcutta, 1964. Pp. x + 242. Bibliog. Glossary, Index. Maps. Rs. 14.

Travel

The Georgeous East. One Man's India. By Rupert Croft‐Cooke. London, W. H. Allen, 1965. Pp. 195. 25s.

World in a Grain of Sand. By Erica Linton. London, Anthony Blond, 1965. Pp. 191. 21s.

Persia Revisited. By Anne Sinclair Mehdevi. London, Michael Joseph, 1965. Pp. 173. 25s.

Persian Lions, Persian Lambs. By Curtis Harnack. London, Victor Gollancz, 1965. Pp.279. 3os.

The Great Chinese Travellers. Edited by Jeanette Mirsky. London, Allen and Unwin, 1965. Pp. 309. 30s.     

Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation,Ruling of February 8, 2001, No. 15-O

In Nal' chik they are estimating the losses caused at residences during an attack by fighters and are replacing glass in the buildings in the Iskozh neighborhood, located near the third city division of internal affairs, where the fighters held hostages for more than a day.