Reassessing pre-war Japanese espionage: The Rutland naval spy case and the Japanese intelligence threat before Pearl Harbor

Soon after the termination of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1921, Squadron Leader Frederick Joseph Rutland covertly offered the Japanese navy technical help to develop aircraft carriers. In doing so Rutland played a significant role in the evolution of Japan's offensive capability that made the attack on Pearl Harbor possible. Of as lasting importance was the impact the case had in shaping the perception of ‘the Japanese threat’. British security and intelligence agencies' knowledge of Japanese naval intelligence actions in accepting this ‘offer of service’ and running Rutland as a clandestine agent was not balanced by any understanding of the fragmented nature of the Japanese leadership and intelligence bureaucracy. The case in the 1920s provided the Security Service and SIS with the apparent evidence to justify reassessing Japan from benign if opportunistic former ally to hostile power, apparently proving that Japan's intelligence actions reflected sustained hostile intent throughout the inter-War period.     

The impact of assisted housing developments on concentrated poverty

Abstract

The common wisdom is that assisted housing developments have both a direct and an indirect impact on concentrated poverty. The indirect effects are based on the notion that the negative stereotypes associated with such developments spill over into the surrounding neighborhoods, causing people who can leave to do so or avoid the neighborhood and leaving behind only the more disadvantaged segments of society. An increase in concentrated poverty in the neighborhood surrounding the development results. Prior studies, relying on aggregated data, are consistent with this thesis. The overwhelming majority of the statistical models in my study, however, found these relationships to be spurious. Once individual and macrolevel characteristics were controlled for, the relationships disappeared.

These findings imply that assisted housing developments will not typically contribute to concentration of poverty in surrounding neighborhoods and suggest that much of the negative reaction to assisted housing developments is unwarranted.     

What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note

The December 2011 legislative election was among the most fraudulent national elections in Russia since the communist period. The fraud, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Precinct-level election returns from the 83 regions of the Russian Federation suggest that the level of fraud ranged from minimal or small in some regions to extreme in some others, with moderate to high fraud levels in many regions in between. We argue that in an electoral authoritarian context like Russia, regional variation in fraud can be explained by differences in (a) the perceived need by regional authorities to signal loyalty to the center by “delivering” desired election results; (b) the capacity of regional authorities to organize fraud; and (c) the vulnerability of citizens to political pressure and manipulation. We test the effect of signaling, capacity, and vulnerability on electoral fraud in the 2011 legislative elections with data on the 83 regions of the Russian Federation. We find evidence for all three mechanisms, finding that the tenure of governors in office, United Russia's dominance in regional legislatures, and the ethnic composition of regions are most important for explaining regional variation in electoral fraud.     

Financial Access and Exclusion in Kenya and Uganda

Policy emphasis has recently shifted to ‘Finance for All’ given evidence that financial sector development contributes to growth but effects on poverty do not arise from pro-poor provision. We argue that, given this policy goal, analyses of barriers to access must be country specific and go beyond the emphasis on transactions costs to incorporate the effects of social institutions since these contribute to discrimination. This paper uses data from Financial Access Surveys carried out in 2006 in Kenya and Uganda to investigate the socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors influencing access to and exclusion from formal, semi-formal and informal financial services.     

Development of a Mobile Toolmark Characterization/Comparison System

Since the development of the striagraph, various attempts have been made to enhance forensic investigation through the use of measuring and imaging equipment. This study describes the development of a prototype system employing an easy‐to‐use software interface designed to provide forensic examiners with the ability to measure topography of a toolmarked surface and then conduct various comparisons using a statistical algorithm. Acquisition of the data is carried out using a portable 3D optical profilometer, and comparison of the resulting data files is made using software named “MANTIS” (Mark and Tool Inspection Suite). The system has been tested on laboratory‐produced markings that include fully striated marks (e.g., screwdriver markings), quasistriated markings produced by shear‐cut pliers, impression marks left by chisels, rifling marks on bullets, and cut marks produced by knives. Using the system, an examiner has the potential to (i) visually compare two toolmarked surfaces in a manner similar to a comparison microscope and (ii) use the quantitative information embedded within the acquired data to obtain an objective statistical comparison of the data files. This study shows that, based on the results from laboratory samples, the system has great potential for aiding examiners in conducting comparisons of toolmarks.     

Ebstein Anomaly and Sudden Childhood Death

A 13‐year‐old girl is reported who died suddenly and unexpectedly in her sleep from previously undiagnosed Ebstein anomaly. At autopsy, there was dilatation of the right atrium with marked dilatation of the right auricle and apical displacement of the tricuspid valve into the right ventricular cavity with atrialization of the upper portion of the right ventricle. There were also prominent dysplastic changes in both the septal and posterior leaflets of the tricuspid valve with thickening of the valve and fusion of leaflets to the wall of the ventricle. Histology of the myocardium showed focal, minor microscopic areas of interstitial fibrosis with marked fibrous dysplasia and thickening of the tricuspid valve. Lethal arrhythmias occur in this condition because of the geographical relationship of the conduction system to the abnormal anatomical structures. As adolescents who died suddenly are often minimally symptomatic, cases will rarely present de novo to forensic autopsy.     

The impact of China's 2016 Cyber Security Law on foreign technology firms,and on China's big data and Smart City dreams

Chinese officials are increasingly turning to a policy known as Informatisation, connecting industry online, to utilise technology to improve efficiency and tackle economic developmental problems in China. However, various recent laws have made foreign technology firms uneasy about perceptions of Rule of Law in China. Will these new laws, under China's stated policy of “Network Sovereignty” (“网络主权” “wangluo zhuquan”) affect China's ability to attract foreign technology firms, talent and importantly technology transfers? Will they slow China's technology and Smart City drive? This paper focuses on the question of whether international fears of China's new Cyber Security Law are justified. In Parts I and II, the paper analyses why China needs a cyber security regime. In Parts III and IV it examines the law itself.