Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Correlation of age and ossification of the medial clavicular epiphysis using computed tomography

OBJECT: The aim of this study was the examination of relationship between the age and the ossification of medial epiphysis of the clavicle referred to CT examination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Concerning the epiphyseal ossification of the clavicle CT's of 100 patients (50 male and 50 female) between 16 and 25 years (10 patients for each year) were analyzed by three viewers. RESULTS: In the legal relevant age segment (16-25a) we saw a turnover from stage 3 to stage 4 at the age of 21 years. The calculated empiric distribution function showed 95% of stage 4 over 21 years while 75% of the patients with stage 3 were under 21 years. A reconstruction kernel suitable for osseous structures should be used, images should be viewed or presented in a bone window. CONCLUSION: According to these results it can be concluded that a person with stage 4 is probably 21 years or older, while a stage 3 leads to an estimated age under 21 years. On the other hand, a confidence level of 99.67% is not reached. Therefore, CT of the medial epiphysis of the clavicle will only be suitable for age estimation around the age of 21 years, if this relevant statistic obstacle is defeated. Bearing this in mind, further studies are needed to evaluate slice thickness as the most critical parameter.     

Further data on the development of red blood cell antigens Lu, Lu, and Co

One hundred and fifty-five cord cells were tested for the red blood cell antigens Lu^a, Lu^b and Co^b in order to collect data on the early postnatal expression of these markers. Additionally, dosage studies were carried out in 8–10-month-old heterozygous children. Antigens Lu^a and Lu^b revealed to be significantly less expressed in children of both ages compared with those of their mothers, whereas no such differences could be demonstrated in the expression of the antigen Co^b.     

The different worlds of women and men: Attitudes toward pornography and responses to not a love story—A film about pornography

Men and women viewing the anti-pornography documentary Not a Love Story were surveyed about their opinions and attitudes toward pornography and toward the film. Women were found to be significantly more negative toward pornography than men, and experienced greater attitude and belief changes from the film. In addition, men's and women's attitudes toward pornography were found to differ in their factor structure; the authors infer that acceptance or rejection of pornography has different significance for men and women. Background variables such as current marriage, sex of children, and amount of pornography previously seen affected men's attitudes more than women's. The authors conclude that gender-free, ‘humanist’ standards according to which pornography could be evaluated do not exist, and that approaches to pornography control based on its role in the particular oppression of women are valid.     

The balanced scorecard: Sustainable performance assessment for forensic laboratories

The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept of the balanced scorecard into the laboratory management environment. The balanced scorecard is a performance measurement matrix designed to capture financial and non-financial metrics that provide insight into the critical success factors for an organization, effectively aligning organization strategy to key performance objectives. The scorecard helps organizational leaders by providing balance from two perspectives. First, it ensures an appropriate mix of performance metrics from across the organization to achieve operational excellence; thereby the balanced scorecard ensures that no single or limited group of metrics dominates the assessment process, possibly leading to long-term inferior performance. Second, the balanced scorecard helps leaders offset short term performance pressures by giving recognition and weight to long-term laboratory needs that, if not properly addressed, might jeopardize future laboratory performance.     

Serious head and neck injury as a predictor of occupant position in fatal rollover crashes

Serious head and neck injuries are a common finding in fatalities associated with rollover crashes. In some fatal rollover crashes, particularly when ejection occurs, the determination of which occupant was driving at the time of the crash may be uncertain. In the present investigation, we describe the analysis of rollover crash data from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System for the years 1997 through 2007 in which we examined the relationship between a serious head and neck injury in an occupant and a specified degree of roof deformation at the occupant's seating position. We found 960 occupants who qualified for the analysis, with 142 deaths among the subjects. Using a ranked composite head and neck injury score (the HNISS) we found a strong relationship between HNISS and the degree of roof crush. As a result of the analysis, we arrived at a predictive model, in which each additional unit increase in HNISS equated to an increased odds of roof crush as follows: for ≥8cm of roof crush compared with <8cm by 4%, for ≥15cm of roof crush compared to <8cm by 6% and for ≥30cm of roof crush compared to <8cm by 11%. We describe two hypothetical scenarios in which the model could be applied to the real world investigation of occupant position in a rollover crash-related fatality.     

An unusual case of identification by DNA analysis of siblings

A badly decomposed body required identification by means of DNA analysis. A brother and sister of the deceased were available as reference subjects. Although investigation of Y-chromosomal markers established an exclusion condition, autosomal markers suggested a positive identification. In order to increase the reliability of the tests, X-chromosomal markers were also investigated. This analysis showed the body to have an XXY genotype (Klinefelter's syndrome). A number of hypotheses were assessed using biostatistical methods, ultimately resulting in a definite identification. The special aspect of Klinefelter's syndrome proved highly useful for biostatistical analysis.