Doctrine and violence: The impact of combatant training on civilian killings

Military theorists and practitioners have long argued that training shapes how combatants treat civilians during war. Yet there is little systematic evidence regarding the impact of training on wartime behavior, and almost none for non-state armed groups, despite the fact that such groups intensively train their fighters in order to shape their behavior towards civilian populations. This article argues that among insurgent groups that emphasize the strategic and tactical importance of restraint towards civilian populations, political training can reduce civilian killings. We test the observable implications of our theory in the case of Colombia, using survey data on former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) insurgents and sub-national data on civilian killings. We find support for our hypothesis, with results that are robust to a range of model specifications and controls, including alternate sources of combatant discipline and obedience, such as military training and punishment.     

Italian renaissance diplomacy

A renewed interest in Italian fifteenth-century diplomacy and the publication of extensive sections of the diplomatic archives of the Italian states justify a new assessment of the significance of Italian Renaissance diplomacy. The conclusions of this essay are threefold, that Italian developments were less unique and less isolated from the European scene than used to be thought; that too much emphasis has been placed on a transition from occasional to continuous diplomacy; and that the emergence of the resident ambassador has to be seen in the context of changing decision-making mechanisms and bureaucratic structures. The differences between the diplomatic institutions and personnel of the princely and republican Italian states are particularly emphasized.     

The Effects of Neighborhood Context on Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Among Adolescents Involved in the Juvenile Justice System: Latent Classes and Contextual Effects

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been identified as a key risk factor associated with a wide range of negative life outcomes, including juvenile delinquency. Much less work has explored whether certain combinations of ACEs, or typologies of trauma, exist, and whether or not these subgroups are differentially associated with certain youth-level and/or community-level characteristics. The current study uses latent class analysis to examine ACE typologies among a sample of over 92,000 juvenile offenders between the ages of 10 and 18 in the state of Florida (52% male, 37.3% White, 46.8% Black, 15.9% Hispanic). Multilevel multinomial logistic regression is used to assess the relationship between both individual- and community-level factors and class membership. The findings suggest that a total of five distinct ACE typologies exist among the sample of juvenile offenders, and age, race, and sex were significantly associated with class membership. Additionally, controlling for individual-level characteristics, community-level measures of immigrant concentration, residential instability, and two separate measures of concentrated disadvantage and affluence were significantly related to class membership. This study contributes to the understanding of adverse childhood experiences, and adds to existing knowledge regarding the relationship between contextual factors and childhood abuse, maltreatment, and trauma. The identification of ACE subgroups with distinct characteristics may help guide prevention strategies and tailor treatment provided by the juvenile justice system.     

Taking agroecology to scale: the Zero Budget Natural Farming peasant movement in Karnataka,India

This paper analyzes how peasant movements scale up agroecology. It specifically examines Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), a grassroots peasant agroecology movement in Karnataka, India. ZBNF ends reliance on purchased inputs and loans for farming, positioning itself as a solution to extreme indebtedness and suicides among Indian farmers. The ZBNF movement has achieved massive scale not only because of effective farming practices, but because of a social movement dynamic – motivating members through discourse, mobilizing resources from allies, self-organized pedagogical activities, charismatic and local leadership, and generating a spirit of volunteerism among its members. This paper was produced as part of a self-study process in La Via Campesina, the global peasant movement.     

Explicating Acculturation Strategies among Asian American Youth: Subtypes and Correlates across Filipino and Korean Americans

Acculturation strategy, a varying combination of heritage and mainstream cultural orientations and one of the significant determinants of youth development, has been understudied with Asian American youth and particularly at a subgroup-specific level. This study used person-oriented latent profile analysis (LPA) to identify acculturation strategy subtypes among Filipino American and Korean American adolescents living in the Midwest. Associations between the subtypes and numerous correlates including demographics, family process and youth outcomes were also examined. Using large scale survey data (N?=?1580; 379 Filipino American youth and 377 parents, and 410 Korean American youth and 414 parents; M_AGE of youth?=?15.01), the study found three acculturation subtypes for Filipino American youth: High Assimilation with Ethnic Identity, Integrated Bicultural with Strongest Ethnic Identity, and Modest Bicultural with Strong Ethnic Identity; and three acculturation subtypes for Korean American youth: Separation, Integrated Bicultural, and Modest Bicultural with Strong Ethnic Identity. Both Filipino American and Korean American youth exhibited immersion in the host culture while retaining a strong heritage identity. Although bicultural strategies appear most favorable, the results varied by gender and ethnicity, e.g., integrated bicultural Filipino Americans, comprised of more girls, might do well at school but were at risk of poor mental health. Korean American separation, comprised of more boys, demonstrated a small but significant risk in family process and substance use behaviors that merits in-depth examination. The findings deepen the understanding of heterogeneous acculturation strategies among Asian American youth and provide implications for future research.     

Making sense of multilevel governance and governance coordination in Brazil: The case of the Bolsa Verde Programme

Brazil is an example of a challenging governance context par excellence: continental size, multi-levelled governance structures and diverse administrative cultures meet with ambitious, large-scale policy needs and objectives. The multilevel governance approach is applied here to analyse implementation and governance coordination of the Bolsa Verde Programme (BVP). Through a close reading of the narratives told by three programme officials – and zooming in on jointly exercised governance functions known from the metagovernance approach – we analysed how BVP’s programmatic governance coordination was made sense of. The analysis showed that our interviewees were well aware of the shortcomings of the governance coordination in BVP, understood as rather hierarchical, centrally driven and often tackling challenges of vertical multi-actor coordination in a reactive ad-hoc manner. However, since the implementers have been able to creatively and skilfully solve governance coordination challenges, possibilities for developing more systematic and inclusive (meta)governance approaches seem feasible.     

Mainstreaming disability in the United Nations treaty bodies

As of the beginning of this century, the United Nations (UN) human rights system had comprehensively elided persons with disabilities from its purview. The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) responded to this lacuna in 2006. The CRPD obligates states parties to mainstream disability by protecting and promoting the human rights of persons with disabilities in all policies and programs and intersects disability with other discriminated-against populations. This article investigates the success of the UN in mainstreaming disability throughout its human rights treaty bodies over the period 2000–2014 by comparing the seven years before and the eight years after the CRPD's adoption for six core UN treaty bodies. In doing so, the article provides initial and unique insight into how well the UN implements human rights norms into treaty bodies and provides a template for future research on the inclusion of vulnerable group-based rights in the UN and beyond. Despite some significant variations between treaty bodies, we find an overall dramatic increase in the quantitative incidence of disability rights being referenced. Nevertheless, a closer look into the practices of two treaty bodies shows that the human rights of persons with disabilities, while noted by those bodies, are included fully only on occasion. For the UN to truly mainstream disability (or other) human rights, those rights must go beyond mere formal references and also be substantively integrated.     

Preelection poll accuracy and bias in the 2016 U.S. general elections

ABSTRACT

This report examines accuracy and bias in national- and state-level preelection polls conducted during the 2016 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically insignificant, suggesting significant bias in preelection polls was scarce in 2016.     

Social media echo chambers and satisfaction with democracy among Democrats and Republicans in the aftermath of the 2016 US elections

There is widespread evidence that individuals select information that supports their convictions and worldviews. This behavior yields the formation of echo chambers – environments in which an individual’s own political beliefs are repeated and amplified and dissenting opinions are screened out. Recent research demonstrates that social networking sites such as Facebook or Twitter can facilitate this selection into homogenous networks. Using data from a representative nation-wide online survey, we consider the degree to which respondents’ social media networks resemble virtual echo chambers. We then analyze the effect of these social media echo chambers on satisfaction with democracy among Democrats and Republicans in the aftermath of the 2016 US elections. Our findings reveal that virtual echo chambers boost democratic satisfaction among Republicans but they do not have an effect on system support by self-identified Democrats. Our paper therefore adds to a growing literature linking online behaviors to mass attitudes about politics.