From Small Streams to Pipe Dreams – The Hydro-Engineering of the Cyprus Conflict

A 2008 water crisis triggered collective fears of droughts and long-term scarcities both north and south of the buffer zone dividing the Mediterranean island of Cyprus since 1974. Tectonic shifts in the island’s water management were the result. Central to export oriented agricultural production since British colonial days, water has always been a policy priority throughout independence, conflict and division for all administrations on the island. With discourses of scarcity and impending doom on the rise, policy makers north and south of the buffer zone started investing heavily in non-conventional high capacity water resources. Since October 2015 an underwater pipeline from the Turkish mainland supplies the north of the island with freshwater while the Republic of Cyprus has commissioned desalination plants through public private partnerships. This article argues that both the construction of the motherland’s “umbilical water cord” in the north as well as the “desalination rush” in the south are not just reactions to issues of environmental scarcity. It shows that Malthusian narratives of water scarcity leading to conflict are just as mistaken as liberal notions of scarcity leading to cooperation. Instead, relationships of power, rooted in post-colonial state formation, development, conflict and division have motivated financially costly but politically expedient investments in excess capacities, rather than improvement of water management. Both the northern and southern water infrastructure boom is understood within its geopolitical context of creating water as political capital in the peace process. This geo-politically conditioned over-engineering of water resources, finally, provides ample grounds for rethinking the relations between water, conflict and division more generally.     

How Capital Budgeting Helped a Sick City: Thirty Years of Capital Improvement Planning in Cleveland

During the 1970s, Cleveland's capital improvement plan (CIP) was scorned as a bad joke, and the city's roads, bridges, and public buildings fell into disrepair. The city's default on its fiscal obligation in 1978 seemed to cap the city's infrastructure problem; there was no comprehensive strategy for capital spending and in a bankrupt city, no money to spend in any event. Yet, during the 1980s, with support from the administration, the business community, and the innovations of a small group of dedicated urban planners, the CIP was restructured and hundreds of millions were systematically invested in public infrastructure. By the 1990s, most of the innovative changes of the 1980s seemed to be institutionalized, but there were ominous clouds on the horizon.     

The Contours of “Cap and Trade”: The Evolution of Emissions Trading Systems for Greenhouse Gases

This article documents the evolution of “cap and trade” as a policy response to global climate change. Through an analysis of 33 distinct policy venues, the article describes how the cap and trade policy domain has developed along spatial, temporal, and institutional dimensions. This discussion demonstrates that following initial discussions of cap and trade in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, the idea quickly spread to other policy venues, creating a complex system of multilevel governance, where many questions about how to govern emissions trading remain contested. The analysis contextualizes recent questioning of emissions trading as an appropriate mechanism for controlling GHG emissions, as well as the ongoing debates about who should govern cap and trade and how it should be carried out. The findings highlight the value added of a domain‐level perspective and suggest the need for future research on the sociopolitical nature of cap and trade policy debates.     

Investigative studies into the recovery of DNA from improvised explosive device containers

Apprehending those who utilize improvised explosive devices (IEDs) is a national priority owing to their use both domestically and abroad. IEDs are often concealed in bags, boxes, or backpacks to prevent their detection. Given this, the goal of the research presented was to identify IED handlers through postblast DNA recovery from IED containers. Study participants were asked to use backpacks for 11 days, after which they served as containers for pipe bombs. Eleven postdeflagration backpack regions likely to be handled were swabbed and analyzed via mini-short tandem repeats (miniSTRs) and alleles were called blind. An experimental consensus method was examined in which profiles from all regions were considered, to help identify spurious drop-in/out. Results were correct for all loci, except one that remained ambiguous. The results show that recovering DNA from IED containers is a viable approach for aiding in the identification of those who may have been involved in an IED event.     

Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

The Dynamics of Self-Esteem: A Growth-Curve Analysis

Research on adolescent self-esteem has been inconsistent regarding development patterns and processes, with some scholars concluding that self-esteem is a static construct and others concluding that it is a dynamic construct. A potential source of this inconsistency is the lack of attention to intraindividual changes in self-esteem across adolescence and to gender-specific developmental patterns. Building on previous research, we use a growth-curve analysis to examine intraindividual self-esteem changes from early adolescence to early adulthood. Using 7 years of sequential data from the Family Health Study (762 subjects ages 11–16 in Year 1), we estimated a hierarchical growth-curve model that emphasized the effects of age, life events, gender, and family cohesion on self-esteem. The results indicated that age had a curvilinear relationship with self-esteem suggesting that during adolescence self-esteem is a dynamic rather than a static construct. Furthermore, changes in self-esteem during adolescence were influenced by shifts in life events and family cohesion. These processes were different for males and females, particularly during early adolescence.     

A Latent Variable Analysis of General Strain Theory

Strain theory has returned to the forefront of criminological theory and research, due primarily to the general strain model developed by Robert Agnew. Agnew posits that a broad range of negative social relations comprises strain and that these straining mechanisms lead to delinquent behavior and other maladaptive functioning. Moreover, strain has its strongest effect on delinquency when certain coping strategies are attenuated or when delinquent peers reinforce perceptions of strain. Although several studies have now shown the utility of general strain theory as an explanation of delinquency, they have relied mainly on cross-sectional effects or two-wave panel designs using methods that fail to consider measurement error or autocorrelated errors. In this study we extend these analyses by estimating a latent variable structural equation model that examines the effects of strain—operationalized as negative life events—on conventional attachment and delinquency over a 3-year period. Furthermore, we directly assess Agnew's coping strategies hypotheses by stratifying the models by self-efficacy, self-esteem, and peer delinquency. The results indicate that significant longitudinal effects of strain on delinquency emerge during year 3 but that these effects are not conditioned by self-efficacy or self-esteem. Changes in strain also affect changes in delinquency, but only among those who report no delinquent peers. We do find, however, that over the initial 2 years strain has a negative effect on delinquency among those high in self-efficacy, self-esteem, or delinquent peers. The findings are discussed in terms of Agnew's theory.