A stochastic model of the 2007 Russian Duma election

In this paper we consider the nature of local Nash equilibrium (LNE) for a model of the 2007 Duma election in Russia, using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemographic variables. We then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences, the approval by voters of the various institutions, including the President, the Prime Minister, the State Duma and the Federation Council. We show by simulation that the vote maximizing LNE of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin. The dominant feature of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of President Putin on each voter’s political choice.     

War-child mothers in northern Uganda: the civil war forgotten legacy

The protracted LRA war in northern Uganda was characterised by the abduction and abuse of an unknown but significant number of girls and women. These girls were forced to carry guns and become wives to rebels, among other roles during captivity. Based on thirteen child mothers’ interviews and eight key informant interviews, the study found that the lives of formerly abducted mothers are tainted with stigma, rejection, and discrimination by in-laws, relatives, and the community, which leads to identity problems and limited possibilities for their integration. Child mothers’ return to school, small business engagement, and social involvement reduced their plight.     

What peacekeeping leaves behind: evaluating the effects of multi-dimensional peace operations in Africa

Peacekeeping today has become ever more complex reaching deep into conflict affected societies aiming to facilitate social, economic and political transformative processes in order to establish sustainable peace. However, most quantitative studies evaluate mission effectiveness only in terms of conflict abatement. This leaves a substantial assessment gap. Therefore this study explores the effects of multi-dimensional peacekeeping by using 12 governance indicators. The article finds that its ambitious goals have largely not been fulfilled. Although there are measureable effects on national security and political participation, in other areas such as personal safety, human development or public management the impact is minimal or non-existent. In order to explain variation across cases and indicators we are testing four intervening variables: the type of peacekeeping mission, the amount of resources allocated, the relative size of civilian and police units per missions and the relationship between personal safety and governance indicators.     

Social Exclusion: The Interplay of Group Goals and Individual Characteristics

Past research has shown that adolescents justify social exclusion based on concerns for group functioning, and yet, to date, no study has evaluated whether group functioning justifications shift or remain stable across different exclusion contexts. In this study, we systematically manipulated exclusion context (i.e., competitive or noncompetitive soccer groups) and individual characteristics of the target of exclusion to test the nature of the interaction between these factors during exclusion judgments. Adolescents’ (N = 201; 61 % Female) exclusion judgments differed across contexts only when an individual’s ability was under consideration. Intergroup (i.e., gender, nationality) and interpersonal (i.e., aggression, shyness) characteristics overwhelmed contextual considerations. Results indicate the complexity of factors weighed by adolescents when making exclusion judgments, and suggest the need for extension of the present findings to understand more fully the interaction between the context of exclusion and individual characteristics in exclusion judgments.     

How Managers Can Reduce Household Water Use Through Communication: A Field Experiment

As populations increase and droughts intensify, water providers are using tools such as persuasive messaging to decrease residential water use. However, district-led messaging campaigns are rarely informed by psychological science, evaluated for effectiveness, or strategically disseminated. In collaboration with a water district, we report a field experiment among single-family households using persuasive messaging based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills model (IMB). We randomly assigned 10,000 households to receive different mailings and measured household water use. All messaging reduced water consumption relative to the control. On average, water use dropped 0.68 hundred cubic feet (HCF) (509 gallons) per household in the first month. Had all 10,000 single-family, occupied, non-agricultural residences been mailed the IMB messaging, more than five million gallons would have been saved in the first month. The effects declined but persisted for approximately three months and were three to six times greater in households with high water use (75th to 90th percentiles) relative to average water use. These findings suggest that combining message elements from the IMB model can reduce residential water use and that targeting high-use households is particularly cost-effective.     

Indigenous Autonomy and the Contradictions of Plurinationalism in Bolivia

The government of Bolivia led by President Evo Morales and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party claims to be constructing a new postliberal or plurinational state. However, this alleged experiment in plurinationalism conflicts with two central elements of government and MAS party strategy: the expansion of the economic development model based on the extraction of non‐renewable natural resources, and the MAS's efforts to control political space, including indigenous territories. This article analyzes these contradictions by examining how Bolivia's constitution and legal framework appear to support indigenous autonomy while simultaneously constraining it. Specifically, it explores how political and bureaucratic processes have seriously limited opportunities to exercise indigenous rights to autonomy. The article makes a comparative analysis of the implications of Bolivia's experience for indigenous autonomy and plurinationalism for other resource extraction–dependent states.     

Levels of Centralisation and Autonomy in Russia’s ‘Party of Power’: Cross-Regional Variations

The institutionalisation and nationalisation of Russia’s party system, which is dominated by United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya—UR), has played a major role in the building of Putin’s ‘power vertical’. Nevertheless, despite the fact that formal relations within UR are highly centralised, informal practices allow for far greater degrees of regional autonomy. Focusing on UR’s candidate selection for the 2011 Duma election this article provides an examination of cross-regional variations in the relations between UR’s Party Centre and its regional branches. As electoral legislation requires the segmentation of party lists into ‘regional groups’, the composition of the regional lists, specifically the share of ‘native candidates’, is considered as an indicator of the level of autonomy of regional branches. Ordinal regression analysis confirms our main theoretical hypotheses. In the more financially autonomous regions, UR’s regional branches will have more leverage and bargaining power in their relations with the Party Centre. A second important factor is heterogeneity: the more a region’s socio-economic indices deviate from the national average (either up or down), the less its UR branch is subordinate to the Party Centre.     

Can poverty be funny? The serious use of humour as a strategy of public engagement for global justice

This article examines the use of humour as a strategy to promote increased public engagement in the countries of the global North with issues of global justice. The central argument of the article is that humour can be both an ethical and an effective way of attracting and sustaining public engagement in struggles for global justice. There are risks and limits to the use of humour to represent issues of poverty and injustice but, given low levels of public engagement in these issues in the countries of the global North, humour is a risk worth taking.