Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections

Theories involving coattails, surge and decline, presidential popularity, and the economy ascribe little importance to presidential efforts to influence congressional elections. Since such efforts do occur, we ask: What happens when a president campaigns for fellow partisans? We examined President George W. Bush's decisions to campaign for certain House candidates in 2002, and we assessed the effect of his visits on Republicans' electoral successes. Both the competitiveness of a race and the president's electoral self‐interest increased the likelihood of a visit on behalf of a candidate. Neither party loyalty nor presidential support in Congress had an effect. We conclude that presidential campaign visits significantly enhance candidates' electoral prospects.     

Companies Making a Killing—New UK Proposals for Corporate Killing

After more than a decade of major public and media outcries for an effective corporate liability regime in relation to workplace deaths the Home Secretary finally confirmed in May 2003, endorsed by the Cabinet in November 2003, that he will prepare a bill during this Parliament Session introducinga new offence of “Corporate Killing”. The call for such an offence as well as individual offences directed at directors and other senior officers arose out of the failures in the current corporate manslaughter law of the UK to convict any middle or large size companies. Specifically, after public disasters such as the capsizing of the Herald of Free Enterprise in 1987 (193 deaths), the Kings Cross Station fire (37 deaths), the Piper Alpha Oil Platform explosion (167 deaths) and a host of recent rail crashes have led to wide public calls to ensure corporations be held responsible for management failings resulting in fatalities. This paper looks briefly at the current law of corporate manslaughter and its failure to deliver the general public's desire for corporate liability as well as the development and evolution of the new proposals.     

U.S. SOCIAL STRUCTURE, CRIME, AND IMPRISONMENT

This research develops a structural model of crime and imprisonment in the United States from data on 49 states which was evaluated through a series of path and regression analyses. The major findings revealed that crime rates were effectively predicted by social structural characteristics, primarily urban population characteristics, and in turn that prison admissions were predicted by crime rates. Prison releases were not as strongly influenced by structural characteristics as crime rates and prison admissions; however, prison admissions were found to significantly affect releases. Variations in social structural determinants of violent and property crimes were also observed. The implication of these results ore discussed and suggestions for future research are presented.     

IMPRISONMENT LENGTH AND POST‐PRISON EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS

This study considers the relationship between imprisonment length and employment outcomes. The data are a unique prospective, longitudinal study of Dutch pretrial detainees (N = 702). All subjects thus experience prison confinement of varying lengths, although the durations are relatively short (mean = 3.8 months; median = 3.1 months). This contrasts with prior research that was limited to the study of American prison sentences spanning an average of 2 years. These data thus fill a gap in the empirical base concerning short‐term confinement, which is the norm in the United States (e.g., jail incarceration) and other Western countries. Using a comprehensive array of pre‐prison covariates, a propensity score methodology is used to examine the dose–response relationship between imprisonment length and a variety of employment outcomes. The results indicate that, among prison lengths less than 6 months in duration, longer confinement is largely uncorrelated with employment. In contrast, among spells in excess of 6 months, longer imprisonment length seems to worsen employment prospects.     

A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk

Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.     

Torture and Democratic Violence

Abstract.  To understand the problem of torture in a democratic society, we have to take up a political-theological perspective. We must ask how violence creates political meaning. Torture is no more destructive and no more illiberal than other forms of political violence. The turn away from torture was not a turn away from violence, but a change in the locus of sacrifice: from scaffold to battlefield. Torture had been a ritual of mediation between sovereign and subject. Once sovereignty is located in the people, it no longer makes sense to speak of being sacrificed for the sovereign. Instead, sovereign presence is now realized in an act of self-sacrifice. The wars of modern nation-states have been acts of reciprocal self-sacrifice. Terror invokes torture in response because both speak a primitive language of political sacrifice, denying the enemy the privilege of self-sacrifice.