Redlining or risk? A spatial analysis of auto insurance rates in Los Angeles

Auto insurance rates can vary dramatically, with much higher premiums in poor and minority areas than elsewhere, even after accounting for individual characteristics, driving history, and coverage. This paper uses a unique data set to examine the relative influence of place‐based socioeconomic characteristics (or redlining) and place‐based risk factors on the place‐based component of automobile insurance premiums. We use a novel approach of combining tract‐level census data and car insurance rate quotes from multiple companies for sub‐areas within the city of Los Angeles. The quotes are for a hypothetical individual with identical demographic and auto characteristics, driving records, and insurance coverage. This method allows the individual demographic and driving record to be fixed. Multivariate models are then used to estimate the independent contributions of these risk and redlining factors to the place‐based component of the car insurance premium. We find that both risk and redlining factors are associated with variations in insurance costs in the place‐based component, with black and poor neighborhoods being adversely affected, although risk factors are stronger predictors. However, even after risk factors are taken into account in the model specification, SES factors remain statistically significant. Moreover, simulations show that redlining factors explain more of the gap in auto insurance premiums between black (and Latino) and white neighborhoods and between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. The findings do not appear sensitive to the individual characteristics of the hypothetical driver. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Beyond Negativity: The Effects of Incivility on the Electorate

There is much concern among pundits and political observers that incivility undermines our electoral process. Yet we have little evidence that actually documents whether incivility has such pernicious effects. This article seeks to advance our understanding of the influence of incivility on the electorate. We argue that three dimensions are central to understanding both the perceptions and effects of different types of campaign messages: tone (negative versus positive); civility (civil versus uncivil); and focus (issue versus trait-based message content). Using an experimental manipulation on a large national sample that examines these three dimensions, we find that uncivil attacks in campaigns do not appear to be as worrisome as its detractors fear. While uncivil messages in general—and uncivil trait-based messages in particular—are usually seen by the public as being less fair, less informative, and less important than both their civil negative and positive counterparts, they are no more likely to lead to detrimental effects among the public. In fact, incivility appears to have some modest positive consequences for the political engagement of the electorate. These findings are important, since attacks and counterattacks will continue to shape the American political landscape.     

Fiscal Management Implications of the TABOR Bind

Following a wave of state-adopted tax and expenditure limitations (TELs), in 1992 the state of Colorado amended its constitution with the strictest TEL to date. Called the Taxpayer Bill of Rights and known as TABOR, the amendment has limited the size and scope of Colorado governments. Praised as a restraint on unbridled government growth in good economic times, TABOR reared its highly restrictive head as the state economy turned downward. The central issue explored is how binding tax and expenditure limitations affect the state's ability to weather economic recessions and employ sound fiscal management practices. As in most institutional arrangements, the devil is in the details. The analysis presented here reveals that binding limitations create perverse incentives for budgetary actors to earmark, privatize, and shift responsibilities to other jurisdictions, which ultimately combine to reduce the state government's ability to perform and to maintain sound fiscal management practices.     

Intravenous Drug Use and HIV in Estonia: Socio-Economic Integration and Development of Indicators Regarding the Right to Health for its Russian-Speaking Population

This article seeks to highlight some potential indicators and benchmarks for the right to health under the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, ratified by Estonia. These potential key indicators, as part of a human rights based approach to health indicators being developed by the UN Special Rapporteur, are argued to be particularly important in the context of the exceptionally high HIV rates among the Russian speaking population in Estonia. The historical emergence of the HIV epidemic in Estonia is traced, comparing its development with the situations in Latvia and Lithuania. This article describes the current extent of the HIV epidemic in Estonia which is the country with the highest reported number of HIV infections per capita in Europe, a number impacting in an extremely disproportionate fashion on its Russian-speaking population, particularly in North-Eastern Estonia. Understanding of the HIV epidemic in Estonia cannot exclude the social contextual factors of the social marginalization of many among the Russian-speaking population, the ‹alien’ status of those without citizenship of Estonia or any other State, and other failures of Estonian State policy with regard to intravenous drug use and HIV in the recent past. HIV among the prison population is also examined as disproportionately impacting upon Russian-speaking prisoners. It is argued that the language and logic of the Estonian State Integration Programme, as well as Estonia’s Second Report on the implementation of the Council of Europe Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities (2004) which refer to its Russian-speaking citizens as ‹non-Estonians’ is discrimination based on ethnic origin. In order to develop a system of State accountability in relation to the right to health, candidate indicators and benchmarks are proposed as structural, process and outcome indicators relevant to Estonia regarding the right to health and HIV, intravenous drug use, socio-economic integration and its Russian-speaking population. Dr. Paul Downes is Director of the Educational Disadvantage Centre, St. Patrick’s College, Drumcondra, Dublin, Ireland.     

A detective allocation model

Assuming that the primary purpose of investigative detectives is to solve cases (make arrests), a mathematical model is developed that allocates detectives among divisions in large urban police department so as to maximize the city-wide clearance rate.     

美国模范刑法典导论

美国法学会1962年通过的《模范刑法典》在美国刑法法典化的历史中发挥了最重要的作用。自颁布至今,该法典一直是美国刑法典改革的主导力量,也是美国刑法学研究的催化剂。该法典内容上包括总则、具体犯罪的规定、处遇和矫正、矫正组织四编,总体上采用了“原则性实用主义”的进路。该法典的创新之处体现在:全面的总则、分析性的结构、充分界定犯罪、使用限定的术语、法典条款的解释体系、犯罪体系,以及某些具体规则的创新,如犯罪要件、不完整犯罪和同谋犯、正当事由、免责事由等。