Economic Interdependence and the Balance of Power

To account for variance in great powers responses to threats and the implications for the peacefulness of the international system since the late nineteenth century, this article elucidates a theory which refines and synthesizes economic liberal perspectives and realist balance of power theory. I argue that different patterns and levels of economic interdependence in the great power system generate societal-based economic constraints on, or incentives for, state leaders of status quo powers hoping to mobilize economic resources and political support to oppose perceived threats. This mobilization process influences strongly the preferences of status quo powers, other states beliefs about those preferences, and the interpretation of signals in balance of power politics. In this way, economic ties influence the strategies great powers pursue. Firm balancing policies conducive to peace in the international system are most likely, I then hypothesize, when there are extensive economic ties among status quo powers and few or no such links between them and perceived threatening powers. When economic interdependence is not significant between status quo powers or if status quo powers have strong economic links with threatening powers, weaker balancing postures and conciliatory policies by status quo powers, and aggression by aspiring revisionist powers, are more likely. I then illustrate how these hypotheses explain the development of the Franco-Russian alliance of the 1890s and its effectiveness as a deterrent of Germany up to 1905, British ambivalence toward Germany from 1906 to the First World War, the weakness of British, French, Soviet, and American behavior toward Germany in the 1930s and World War II, and the American and European responses to the Soviet threat, including the NATO alliance, and the "long peace" of the post-1945 era.     

《毛泽东思想概论》中"两个建议"的史实质疑与论证

我国高等院校党史教材和国内诸多史书论著,普遍认定“毛泽东思想两个建议”的史实。通过对《毛泽东思想概论》、《彭德怀自述》等有关“两个建议”史实不同版本的比较论证分析,可得出“中央革命根据地第五次反‘围剿’战役后期的两个战略性建议,不是毛泽东提出来的”史实结论,否定国内史学界近半个世纪以来所认定的普遍观点。     

实施“大警务”战略的探索与思考——以杭州市萧山区为例

在社区和农村警务建设全面推进并取得重大成效之时,从新形势下深化"三基"工程建设的要求出发,从贯彻落实浙江省公安厅提出的"两个最大"理念的要求出发,进一步研究和探索基层警务工作的新思路和新模式,具有积极的现实意义。实施"大警务"战略,积极打造社会化、复合型、整体性的警务新架构,做强警务平台,延伸工作触角,突出管控重点,有助于基层公安机关进一步提升对社会治安局势的驾驭能力。