Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections

This paper analyzes the impact of economic performance on voter turnout. We estimate an economic turnout model in which local economic variables are included in quadratic form, so that non-linear effects can be taken into account. We use panel datasets covering municipalities, from 1979 to 2005, and cross-sections of parishes (freguesias) to analyze the determinants of turnout at Portuguese municipal and legislative elections. The empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important only in legislative elections and that the regional and local unemployment rates tend to have non-linear relationships to turnout. The results obtained for Flemish municipalities also provide evidence in favor of a non-linear effect of unemployment on turnout.     

Dimensions of the economic vote: Valence,positional and patrimony voting in Portugal's 2011 elections

This article contrasts three dimensions of economic voting, namely valence, positional and patrimony voting. Whereas the first two dimensions have been frequently explored, the patrimony variable has scarcely been tested as an explanatory variable of voting behaviour. It measures the electors' assets (both risky and non-risky), and seeks to capture the elector's wealth at election time. Using the 2011 post-election survey carried out in Portugal following the June elections, the data show that comparing of the three dimensions, valence is the most important. It was found that patrimony variables, although not significant in a comprehensive vote model, are important explanatory factors of party identification, itself a key variable of vote choice in Portugal.     

The Islamic State and the New Tribalism

This article focuses on the apocalyptic zeitgeist of the Islamic State through the lens of what we call the New Tribalism. It finds that IS emerged from the Al Qaeda (AQ) milieu, but soon split with AQ as the messianic excitement surrounding Al-Baghdadi and his teachings grew. In common with previous millennial/messianic movements in all three “Peoples of the Book”—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—IS soon evolved beyond the laws of the normative faith (antinomianism). We hold that for this reason, despite its claims of faith and fealty, IS has left the Islamic Umah behind, becoming a malign sectarian group of its own whose dynamism and successes are attracting a global audience and support from Muslims in almost every country. This helps to explain such abhorrent practices as forced conversion, sexual servitude, the destruction of historic artifacts, and mass executions. We find that the American invasion of Iraq was the vital first step in a series of events, which gave birth to IS. A thorough review of IS history and political culture traces these historic moments in time.     

The imperial Japanese Navy and espionage: The Itaru Tachibana case

Hitler's secret agents

William Breuer: Hitler's Undercover War St. Martin's Press, New York, 1989, 320 p., $19.95.

The Pueblo capture: an NSA ploy?

Robert Liston: The Pueblo Surrender M. Evans And Company, Inc., New York, 1988, 272 p., $18.95.

A fresh look at the Cambridge comintern

Verne W. Newton: The Cambridge Spies: The Untold Story of Maclean, Philby, and Burgess in America Madison Books, New York, 1990, 464 p., $24.95.

KGB: Useful but flawed

Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky: KGB: The Inside Story of Its Foreign Operations from Lenin to Gorbachev HarperCollins, New York, 1990,776 p., $29.95.     

Psychometric Properties of Revised Conflict Tactics Scales: Portuguese Sibling Version (CTS2-SP)

The Revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2, Straus et al. Journal of Family Issues, 17, 283–316, 1996) were conceived to measure Psychological Aggression, Physical Assault, Sexual Coercion, Injury and the use of Negotiation towards a partner in a marital, cohabiting or dating relationship. The CTS2-SP was designed for obtaining data on conflict tactics between siblings. The main objective of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the CTS2-SP Portuguese version. Data were collected among 590 Portuguese university students. Reliability was assessed through Cronbach’s alpha ranging from 0.65 to 0.81 for the perpetration scales and ranging 0.66 to 0.84 to victimization scales. Significant correlations between different forms of the CTS2 illustrate its construct validity. The psychometric characteristics of CTS2-SP Portuguese version were found to be adequate. The CTS2-SP offers a reliable and valid measure to be used within the Portuguese population.     

Chimpanzee homologous of human Y specific STRs. A comparative study and a proposal for nomenclature

Eleven Y specific microsatellites, previously studied in humans, were typed for fragment length and sequenced in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).The primers described by Ayub et al. (Nucleic Acids Res. 28, 2000, 2) for amplifying DYS434, DYS435, DYS436, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439 and those described by White et al. (Genomics, 57, 1999, 433) for GATA A10, A7.1, A7.2, C4, and H4, were used to amplify DNA samples from chimpanzees.Primers described for Y GATA A4 were found to amplify the same region as reported for DYS439. Moreover, the GATA A4 forward primer only matches the repeat flanking region in 14 of the 28bp, being responsible for a very weak amplification. Therefore, this system was not included in this study.The analysis of the repeat and sequence structure observed in chimpanzee and human Y chromosomes allowed evolutionary comparisons as well as the basis for improving Y STR nomenclature and therefore, a unified nomenclature for these novel STRs is proposed to the scientific community following ISFG recommendations.     

Forensic application of Y chromosome SNPs in inconclusive cases

Biallelic markers, Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), are nowadays a powerful tool in the analysis of degraded samples. Namely, Y chromosome SNPs allow to determine the gender of the analyzed sample and to establish its haplogroup, making possible to attribute the ethnicity of male individuals. The aim of this study is to obtain Y-SNPs in forensic samples without STRs results, checking methodologies previously used.     

The black soldier-fly, Hermetia illucens (Diptera, Stratiomyidae), used to estimate the postmortem interval in a case in Amapá State, Brazil

The black soldier-fly (Hermetia illucens) is a generalist detritivore which is commonly present in corpses in later stages of decomposition and may be useful in forensic entomology. This paper describes the estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) based on the life cycle of the black soldier-fly in a case in northern Brazil. A male child was abducted from his home and 42 days later his corpse was found in an advanced stage of decay. Two black soldier-fly larvae were found associated with the body. The larvae emerged as adults after 25-26 days. Considering the development cycle of H. illucens, the date of oviposition was estimated as 24-25 days after abduction. Since H. illucens usually (but not always) colonizes corpses in more advanced stages of decay, this estimate is consistent with the hypothesis that the child was killed immediately after abduction.