DOES DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL ENHANCE DELINQUENT INVOLVEMENT? RESULTS FROM A LARGE-SCALE NATIONAL PROBABILITY SAMPLE*

This study seeks to improve on previous research on the relationship between dropping out of school and later involvement in delinquency. Using data from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, the analysis addresses two problems with prior studies in this area: (1) By controlling for many variables that may account for observed dropout-delinquency associations, it is possible to explore the possibility that the relationship may be spurious. (2) By examining the effects of different reasons for dropping out, the study avoids the assumption that dropouts are a homogeneous group. Results indicate that the effect of dropping out of school on later offending is more complicated than previous research leads one to believe. In addition, dropping out does not always enhance the likelihood of a person's later delinquent involvement.     

The Fly Ball Effect: A Theoretical Framework for Understanding the Impacts of Short‐Term Seed Grants

The federal government has long used grants‐in‐aid to encourage state and local governments to carry out federal policies. Little research has been done that examines how short‐term seed grants affect program continuation. We propose the “fly ball effect” as a theoretical framework for understanding how seed money should impact program maintenance. Our theory suggests that short‐term seed grants by themselves should result in considerable funding uncertainty and program eliminations or stagnation once the initial grant money expires. We use data from drug court start‐ups in four states to provide empirical support for our theory. We argue that understanding the logic of the fly ball effect can help granting governments to improve the effectiveness of their grant funding systems, at least as measured by strong program continuation and expansion.     

An Automated System for Argument Invention in Law Using Argumentation and Heuristic Search Procedures*

Abstract. A heuristic search procedure for inventing legal arguments is built on two tools already widely in use in argumentation. Argumentation schemes are forms of argument representing premise‐conclusion and inference structures of common types of arguments. Schemes especially useful in law represent defeasible arguments, like argument from expert opinion. Argument diagramming is a visualization tool used to display a chain of connected arguments linked together. One such tool, Araucaria, available free at http://araucaria.computing.dundee.ac.uk/ , helps a user display an argument on the computer screen as an inverted tree structure with an ultimate conclusion as the root of the tree. These argumentation tools are applicable to analyzing a mass of evidence in a case at trial, in a manner already known in law using heuristic methods ( Schum 1994 ) and Wigmore diagrams ( Wigmore 1931 ). In this paper it is shown how they can be automated and applied to the task of inventing legal arguments. One important application is to proof construction in trial preparation ( Palmer 2003 ).     

THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT INITIATIVE IN THE FCO

This article focuses on the Diplomatic Wing of the Foreign and Commonwealth office (FCO) in this country and diplomatic missions overseas. The Overseas Development Administration, though brigaded with the Diplomatic Wing under the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, is substantially a separate organization staffed by Home Civil Servants and with its own Accounting Officer. Though we work closely together, the organizations are distinct.     

REVIEW ARTICLE: MILITARY SPACE POLICY: DEBATING THE FUTURE

Colonel Bruce M. DeBlois, USAF (ed), Beyond the Paths of Heaven: The Emergence of Space Power Thought (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 1999). Benjamin S. Lambeth, Mastering the Ultimate High Ground: Next Steps in the Military Uses of Space (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003). Major M.V. Smith, USAF, Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2002). Brigadier General Simon P. Worden, USAF and Major John E. Shaw, USAF, Whither Space Power? Forging a Strategy for the New Century (Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2002).     

ADDICTED WOMEN AND CRIME*

The relationship between women's narcotics use and crime is examined among Anglo and Chicana methadone maintenance clients. Three types of analyses are employed: (1) the temporal ordering between narcotics involvement and criminal activities: (2) comparisons of crime levels before and after critical events in the addiction career including narcotic initiation, addiction, last daily use, first treatment entry, and first treatment discharge; and (3) crime levels as a function of increasing narcotics use. Women in this study demonstrate extensive criminal involvement and some also engage in dealing and/or prostitution. Property crime activities precede the addiction career for many women but, once addicted, the amount of property crime committed appears to be generally regulated by narcotics use levels. After the addiction career, property crime decreases substantially. Chicanas, in general, display higher baseline pretreatment criminal activity and show fewer changes in crime levels than Anglo women in reaction to events such as treatment or termination of addiction career.