China＇s Changing Development Pattern

正DATA available on the world’s two largest economies,China and the U.S.,for 2013provide an opportunity to take stock of China’s immediate economic prospects and the more general challenges facing its economic development strategy.     

China Can Maintain Its Economic Growth

正EARLIER this year sections of the Western media tried to spin a story that the world economy was experiencing"severe slowdown in China"and"strong recovery in the U.S."In other words,China’s economy was allegedly in trouble and the U.S.was doing well.Now that the factual data is in for the fi rst half of the year it shows the opposite was true.China’s economic growth was 7.5 percent to the second quarter of 2014;that of the U.S.was 2.4 percent.China’s economy thus grew more than three times as fast as the U.S.’s.Still more signifi cantly for the U.S.,its own statistical agencies and the IMF have offi cially revised their projections for long-term U.S.growth.Both now estimate it at     

TOWARD AN ANALYTICAL CRIMINOLOGY: THE MICRO–MACRO PROBLEM,CAUSAL MECHANISMS,AND PUBLIC POLICY

In this address, I revisit the micro–macro problem in criminology, arguing for an “analytical criminology” that takes an integrated approach to the micro–macro problem. I begin by contrasting an integrated methodological‐individualist approach with traditional holist and individualist approaches. An integrated approach considers the concept of emergence and tackles the difficult problem of specifying causal mechanisms by which interactions among individuals produce social organizational outcomes. After presenting a few examples of micro–macro transitions relevant to criminology, I discuss research programs in sociology and economics that focus on these issues. I then discuss the implications of social interaction effects for making causal inferences about crime and for making crime policy recommendations.     

The New Philadelphia Story: The Effects of Severe Punishment for Drunk Driving*

This article documents the experience of a community–New Philadelphia, Ohio–in which a concerned judge attempted to apply severe penalties in order to deter drunk driving. Surveys of drivers on weekend nights were performed in this community and the nearby comparison city of Cambridge in order to determine the extent to which the legal threats were perceived and the extent to which people drank and drove. It was found that the judicial policies were well known in New Philadelphia, but no differences could be discerned in the extent of drinking and driving between the two cities. No significant differences were found in the subsequent records of samples of sentenced drivers in the two cities, the New Philadelphia sample being sentenced to heavy punishments and the Cambridge drivers being sentenced traditionally. The accomplishments and limitations of the experience reported in this study are relevant both to formulating effective countermeasures to drunk driving in specific American communities, and to understanding the role of law–its capabilities and limitations–in addressing social problems more generally.     

ADOLESCENT VICTIMIZATION AND INCOME DEFICITS IN ADULTHOOD: RETHINKING THE COSTS OF CRIMINAL VIOLENCE FROM A LIFE‐COURSE PERSPECTIVE*

Estimating the financial costs of criminal violence to victims is important for assessing both the impact of crime on individuals and evaluating the feasibility and utility of various crime prevention, crime control, and criminal justice policies. Traditionally, such estimates focus on short‐term costs: costs connected to the victimization event itself and costs incurred during the immediate aftermath. Although the possibility of more long‐term costs is acknowledged, research has yet to articulate how and to what extent criminal violence impacts socioeconomic fortunes. In this article, I propose a life‐course model for estimating the long‐term costs of violent victimization. Using prospective, longitudinal data from a national sample of American adolescents, and retrospective data from a national sample of Canadians, I use this conceptual model to estimate income losses over the life cycle associated with violent victimization. Three significant results are reported. First, income losses from violent victimization are age‐graded, with the greatest costs occurring for victimization experienced in adolescence. Second, criminal violence experienced in adolescence appears to influence later earnings by disrupting processes of educational and occupational attainment. Third, the total costs of criminal violence over the life course for adolescents are considerable in comparison to estimates provided in previous research. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.