Some thoughts on the use and misuse of statistical inference

The abuse of techniques of statistical inference resulting from inadequate attention to the relationship between the model used and the real world problem being addressed, and inappropriate interpretation of conclusions in the light of that relationsip, are discussed. The basic principle underlying all statistical inference is that we attempt to distinguish between alternatives by comparing observed behavior with that predicted by predictive models of those alternatives. The use of predictive models which do not describe the behavior of the alternatives between which we wish to distinguish is a clear violation of that principle. The principle is illustrated in a discussion of sampling from an urn. The technique of causal inference through partial correlation analysis is discussed as an example of the violation of this principle. On the surface this technique appears to have wide applicability in analyses in support of policy studies, but further examination shows its applicability to be somewhere between highly questionable and totally specious.     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.     

Garland v. Torre and the Birth of Reporter's Privilege

In 1959, Marie Torre of the New York Herald Tribune went to jail rather than reveal who had told her that Judy Garland apparently thought herself to be “terribly fat.” Many reporters derided Torre as a gossip columnist (she was actually the TV columnist) who did not deserve support. But the libel suit that sent her to jail, Garland v. Torre, is more consequential than they imagined. Though Torre lost her appeal, the judge recognized a degree of constitutional protection for newsgathering. Elevated to the Supreme Court of the United States, that judge, Potter Stewart, reiterated his Garland reasoning in a dissenting opinion in Branzburg v. Hayes. Many federal courts then employed the Branzburg dissent or Garland itself to craft a conditional reporter's privilege. In this fashion, Marie Torre helped scores of later reporters avoid jail.