US security strategy in Asia and the prospects for an Asian regional security regime

The US–Japan alliance serves as the cornerstone of US security strategy in East Asia. The Bush administration remains supportive of efforts by Japan to become a more “normal” nation and is expected, during its second term, to continue to encourage Tokyo to play a more active role in regional security (while refraining from open pressure or from meddling in the debate over constitutional revision). The Pentagon's ongoing Global Force Review will likely result in some modest adjustments in the US military footprint in Japan, but with no lessening of Washington's overall commitment or ability to respond to regional crises. Meanwhile, Washington will continue to support institutionalized multilateral mechanisms (including sub-regional efforts that do not include the US) as useful means to promote regional security and coordinate counter-terrorism efforts, while relying on ad hoc coalitions (or unilateral actions if necessary) to address specific threats to its own security or to the security of its allies.     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

The Philadelphia predictive policing experiment

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This place-based, randomized experiment explored the impact of different patrol strategies on violent and property crime in microscale predicted crime areas....     

Fortitude,ultra and the ‘need to know’

E.T. Layton with R Pinneau and J. Costello, And I Was There. Pearl Harbor and Midway (New York: William Morrow), pp. 596, $19.95.

Donald A. Torres, Handbook of Federal Police and Investigative Agencies (Westport, Conn., and London: Greenwood Press, 1985), pp. 411, £49.95.

Ernest R. May (ed.), Knowing One's Enemies. Intelligence Assessment Before the Two World Wars (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984), pp. 561, $29.50 or £19.80 (cloth); $14.50 or £9.70 (paper).