This paper reexamines the effect of the introduction of the British Road Safety Act of 1967. We construct a dynamic model relating monthly road casualties to road traffic, rainfall, and alcohol consumption, standardizing for the seasonality in the data. An intervention variable captures the effect of the Road Safety Act. The findings confirm Ross's earlier conclusion that the Road Safety Act significantly reduces casualties. However, we find that the Road Safety Act only accounts for 2.7 percent of the variance in road casualties, while miles-driven and rainfall account for 48.8 percent, and alcohol consumption explains 4.2 percent. Our model forecasts accurately for 24 months beyond December, 1972, the last month used for estimation. 相似文献
This article updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made. 相似文献
Jeff Haynes, Religion in Global Politics (Longman, London, 1998), 243 pp., ISBN 0–582–29312‐X (pb)
Haleh Afshar, Islam and Feminisms. An Iranian Case‐study (Macmillan, London, 1998), 235 pp., ISBN 0–333–73324‐X (hb)
Felix Moses Edoho, Globalization and the New World Order: Promises, Problems, and Prospects for Africa in the Twenty First Century (Praeger, Westport, 1997), 215 pp., ISBN 0–275–95517–6 (hb)
Cyrus Ernesto Zirakzadeh, Social Movements in Politics. A Comparative Study (Longman, London, 1997), 269 pp., ISBN 0–582–20946–3
Mick Ryan, Lobbying from Below: INQUEST in Defence of Civil Liberties (UCL Press, London, 1996), 208 pp., ISBN 1–85728–225–8 (hb), 1–85728–256–6 (pb)
Grant Jordan and William Maloney, The Protest Business? Mobilizing Campaign Groups (Manchester University Press, Manchester and New York, 1997), 213 pp., ISBN 0–7190–4371–9 (pb) 相似文献
Abstract The common agricultural policy of the EC with its market regulations is decided at EC level by a multilevel system of government, in which the Commission and the parliamentary parties of the European Parliament play the supranational role and the national ministries of agriculture act as parts of the intergovernmental system of the Council of Ministers. National interest groups have thereby three major access routes to the EC system, first through their national governments, or second indirectly, transmitted by their European peak organizations, or third directly to the supranational EC actors. The network approach is applied to study empirically the densities of access through these various routes. The links between actors in the agricultural policy domain are conceptualized as links for the exchange of resources, the most important resource of a policy domain being the final control of policy decisions. The political actors of the governance system originally hold full control of this valuable resource which they exchange for influence resources possessed by the interest groups, as public support or expert knowledge. Empirically, answers to the network questions depend on the type of resource and the viewpoint of the interviewed actors. An index is developed which indicates the resource flows between actors and the distribution of equilibrium control of policy decisions. It is shown that the national ministers of agriculture depend very much on the support and expertise of their national farmers' lobby, whereas the Commission relies more on contacts within the political sector itself. Multilevel systems need a lot of political coordination, so that the political actors within such systems, especially at the supranational level, seem to deal first of all with each other and not so much with the demand side of politics, compared to the national ministers of agriculture. 相似文献
Normative theories of representative government posit congruence of opinion between the electorate and their representatives. However, not all political issues are equally salient, and agreement is expected to be greater on relatively salient issues. This paper employs balance theory to describe mechanisms which may produce congruence of opinion between voters and parties when an issue increases rapidly in salience. Panel data on Norwegian opinion during the debate on European Union membership are used to determine whether opinion congruence resulted from persuasion by political parties or policy voting by the electorate. Policy voters are found to differ systematically from voters who were persuaded by parties. Finally, the characteristics of parties which determine their success in persuading voters or attracting policy voters are evaluated.相似文献