The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916–1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.     

Risk compensation and the effectiveness of safety belt use laws: a case study of New Jersey

This paper investigates the effectiveness of New Jersey's mandatory belt use law (MUL) by testing specifically for: (1) a safety effect, and (2) a risk-compensation effect that could offset (in part) any safety impact. The main findings are that injury severity declined significantly in the 22 months following implementation of the MUL; but that accident frequency increased significantly. The increase in accidents may be explained only partially by increased driving mileage. These findings suggest that the real safety effect of the law may have been diluted by risk-compensating behavior.This paper is based on a study conducted for the New Jersey Office of Highway Traffic Safety by the Rutgers University Bureau of Economic Research. We are grateful to William Ascher and two referees for useful comments.     

The Budget Enforcement Act in 1991: Isometric Budgeting

The immediate effect of the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) of 1990 was to cancel a pending $110 billion sequester and to change the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit targets. These and other changes allowed Congress and the administration to escape responsibility for increases in the deficit if discretionary spending was kept within the caps and no new entitlement programs or revenue enhancements were added. This assumption and others relating to the empowerment of the Appropriations Committees and the new authority of the OMB are explored in this article.     

Credit enhancement of municipal debt

Abstract: The municipal bond bank (mbb) innovation began in Canada in 1956 and in the United States in 1970. This paper concentrates on why mbbs exist, their characteristics, where they work best, and how they compare with other municipal debt credit enhancement techniques. It concludes with a discussion of the future role these organizations will have in providing long-term capital funding to municipalities in Canada and the United States. Sommaire: Le principe de la Banque d'obligations municipales (BOM) fut introduit en 1956, au Canada et, en 1970, aux États-Unis. Cet article explore la raison d'être des BOMS, leurs caractéristiques, leurs conditions de succés maximum et les compare à d'autres techniques pour rehausser le crédit de la dette municipale. L'article se termine par une discussion sur le rôle que ces organisations auront à l'avenir dam le financement capital à long terme des municipalités au Canada et aux États-Unis.