Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However, different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955–95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.     

Real-time forensic DNA analysis at a crime scene using a portable microchip analyzer

An integrated lab-on-a-chip system has been developed and successfully utilized for real-time forensic short tandem repeat (STR) analysis. The microdevice comprises a 160-nL polymerase chain reaction reactor with an on-chip heater and a temperature sensor for thermal cycling, microvalves for fluidic manipulation, a co-injector for sizing standard injection, and a 7-cm-long separation channel for capillary electrophoretic analysis. A 9-plex autosomal STR typing system consisting of amelogenin and eight combined DNA index system (CODIS) core STR loci has been constructed and optimized for this real-time human identification study. Reproducible STR profiles of control DNA samples are obtained in 2 h and 30 min with ≤0.8 bp allele typing accuracy. The minimal amount of DNA required for a complete DNA profile is 100 copies. To critically evaluate the capabilities of our portable microsystem as well as its compatibility with crime scene investigation processes, real-time STR analyses were carried out at a mock crime scene prepared by the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office (PBSO). Blood stain sample collection, DNA extraction, and STR analyses on the portable microsystem were conducted in the field, and a successful “mock” CODIS hit was generated on the suspect's sample within 6 h. This demonstration of on-site STR analysis establishes the feasibility of real-time DNA typing to identify the contributor of probative biological evidence at a crime scene and for real-time human identification.     

Causes of the Slowdown in Soviet Defense

This paper discusses the recent official U.S. intelligence estimates indicating a slowdown in the growth rates of Soviet defense spending and military procurement since 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency's explanation for the slowdown is examined. Questions are raised about two of the factors, economic constraints and technical difficulties, and the implications of the CIA's explanation for theories about the relationship of the defense sector to the rest of the economy are considered. The author offers as a possible alternative explanation of the slowdown a change in Soviet military investment priorities de-emphasizing strategic offensive weapons. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.     

Transforming Analysis: The Intelligence Community's Best Kept Secret

This article argues that analytic practices and processes within the US intelligence community have undergone far more fundamental reform than the public or scholarly communities recognize. It identifies the dimensions of this ‘Analytic Transformation’ and explains the reasons for optimism about the future.     

Religion und Sozialintegration

This paper examines the role of religion as a source of social capital in Germany. In addition to networks of civic engagement and informal social connections with family and friends, the identity- and status-bridging nature of these networks are also considered. Results based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) suggest that both, subjective religiosity and public religious practice, have a positive impact on social integration in Germany. But religious traditions – Catholicism, Protestantism, other Christians and Islam – differ in this regard. While attending religious services leads to larger friendship networks and increased sociability in all religions, civic engagement is only fostered by Christian religiosity and in particular Protestantism. However, none of the religious traditions encourages identity- or status-bridging social capital.