Water Policy in a Time of Climate Change: Coping with Complexity

The unpredictable impacts of climate change, combined with significant social and economic changes, mean that policy analysis is becoming inordinately more complex. Coping with this increasing complexity while engaging with a full range of stakeholders and the community requires a new approach to leadership and governance. Water planners (and others involved in the planning processes) need new skills in active listening and constructive cultural behavior, and all agencies need to recognize that thinking and acting only in the interests of their own silo of responsibilities will inevitably produce suboptimal outcomes. Leadership focused on constructive behavior that recognizes and rewards generosity of spirit across disciplines and between organizations is the foundation of this new approach.     

Perceived attachments to parents and peers and psychological well-being in adolescence

This paper reports the findings from a study of 935 adolescents' perceived attachments to their parents and peers, and their psychological health and well-being. Perceived attachment to parents did not significantly differ between males and females. However, females scored significantly higher than males on a measure of attachment to peers. Also, relative to males, they had higher anxiety and depression scores, suggesting poorer psychological well-being. Overall, a lower perceived attachment to parents was significantly associated with lower scores on the measures of well-being. Adolescents who perceived high attachments to both their parents and peers had the highest scores on a measure of self-perceived strengths. In this study, adolescents' perceived attachment to peers did not appear to compensate for a low attachment to parents in regard to their mental ill-health. These findings suggest that high perceived attachment to parents may be a critical variable associated with psychological well-being in adolescence.Received M.Sc. in psychology from the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. Research interests include adolescent menial health.Received Ph.D. in psychology from the University of New South Wales, Australia. Research interests include issues in behavioral medicine.Received Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Newcastle, Australia. Research interests include child health and development, and adolescent smoking behavior.     

Books in review

He is the co-author, with William G. Scott, of Organizational Values in America.     

Political Violence in Late Colonial Cyprus: The Balance of Risk

Based on reflections on his 1998 book Britain and the Revolt in Cyprus, 1954–59, the author now offers the view that more attention should be given to Greek-Cypriot missteps as well as British ones. The article looks at the roles of Archbishop Makarios and Governors Harding and Foot. The outcome of the 1950s struggle, it argues, cannot be understood in narrowly Cypriot terms but only in its regional context. The author is of the view that a window of opportunity for enosis was lost in miscalculations and confusion between the aims of ousting the British and securing a union with Greece.     

Accounts and accountability: Theoretical implications of the right-to-information movement in India

The work of a small and unusual activist group in the north Indian state of Rajasthan has raised a series of practical and theoretical issues concerning the best means for combating specific instances of corruption, and for promoting accountability more generally. The Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS)-literally-:Workers' and Farmers' Power Organisation-has waged a campaign to secure the right of ordinary people to gain access to information held by government officials. In the process of experimenting with methods of compiling, sharing and verifying expenditure data at very local levels-thus far, in the absence of a statutory entitlement to such informationthe MKSS has developed a radical interpretation of the notion that citizens have a right both to know how they are governed and to participate actively in the process of auditing their representatives. This article examines the process by which this campaign emerged and the means by which it pursues its goals. It then analyses the implications of the MKSS experience, and the larger movement it has spawned, for contemporary debates in three areas: human rights, participatory development and, of course, anti-corruption.     

Sample Size Determination for Categorical Responses

Abstract:  Procedures are reviewed and recommendations made for the choice of the size of a sample to estimate the characteristics (sometimes known as parameters) of a population consisting of discrete items which may belong to one and only one of a number of categories with examples drawn from forensic science. Four sampling procedures are described for binary responses, where the number of possible categories is only two, e.g., licit or illicit pills. One is based on priors informed from historical data. The other three are sequential. The first of these is a sequential probability ratio test with a stopping rule derived by controlling the probabilities of type 1 and type 2 errors. The second is a sequential variation of a procedure based on the predictive distribution of the data yet to be inspected and the distribution of the data that have been inspected, with a stopping rule determined by a prespecified threshold on the probability of a wrong decision. The third is a two-sided sequential criterion which stops sampling when one of two competitive hypotheses has a probability of being accepted which is larger than another prespecified threshold. The fifth procedure extends the ideas developed for binary responses to multinomial responses where the number of possible categories (e.g., types of drug or types of glass) may be more than two. The procedure is sequential and recommends stopping when the joint probability interval or ellipsoid for the estimates of the proportions is less than a given threshold in size. For trinomial data this last procedure is illustrated with a ternary diagram with an ellipse formed around the sample proportions. There is a straightforward generalization of this approach to multinomial populations with more than three categories. A conclusion provides recommendations for sampling procedures in various contexts.     

The intersection of racial profiling research and the law

There has been a significant increase in the litigation of selective enforcement cases based on racial profiling claims. This trend has resulted in two legal issues that are problematic for racial profiling research. First, selective enforcement claims that rely on statistical evidence must successfully measure “similarly situated persons” who were eligible for police stops to provide a comparison against those actually stopped by police. Second, the research must demonstrate “how much” statistical evidence of racial/ethnic disparities exists. Although these legal components are necessary for successful selective enforcement claims, the methodologies and statistical analyses currently used in racial profiling research cannot adequately address these issues. It is argued that the over-reliance on social science research, in general, and statistical techniques, specifically, to provide evidence of discrimination in selective enforcement cases places policing research and legal decision making at a crossroads.