关于东欧剧变和社会发展道路的思考

首先向中国朋友们表示问候。我很荣幸应邀参与《当代世界》杂志关于东欧剧变等重要问题的讨论并发表个人粗浅之见。     

Democracy and Dictatorship in Continental Latin America During the Interwar Period

This article emphasizes the key role of labor in shaping trends and patterns of pica change. The first section of the article argues that during the interwar period, continental Latin America experienced common trends in several areas, including a general upsurge in labor unrest, deepening conflicts among elites, the implementation of new modes of state regulation, and a disruption of prevailing trade arrangements within the world economy, all of which were accompanied by a brief but significant wave of democratization in the 1920s. Noting that these general trends were unevenly distributed through the region (particularly after the 1930s), the second section of the article proceeds to abstract four patterns of political arrangements (repressive dictatorships, party competition, corporatist nationalism, and unstable labor politics). The article uses two principal variables (the relative weight of the middle and working classes and the degree of cohesion/fragmentation among elites) to explain these patterns of political change. Overall, the article suggests that the relative strength of labor and subordinate groups was key to shifts away from repressive dictatorship, while the degree of convergence among elites was significant in shaping political outcomes, but not in promoting democratic outcomes. I would like to thank Professor Irving Louis Horowitz for useful comments on an earlier version of this article. Previous versions of this research were presented at a seminar of the Latin American Studies Center at Princeton University, and at an annual meeting of the Southern Labor Studies Conference, where I benefited from comments by panel participants.     

Metal objects mapping after small charge explosions. A study on AISI 304Cu steel with two different grain sizes

Evidence of exposure of a metal component to a small charge explosion can be detected by observing microstructural modifications; they may be present even if the piece does not show noticeable overall plastic deformations. Particularly, if an austenitic stainless steel (or another metal having a face-centered cubic structure and a low stacking fault energy) is exposed to an explosive shock wave, high-speed deformation induces primarily mechanical twinning, whereas, in nonexplosive events, a lower velocity plastic deformation first induces slip. The occurrence of mechanical twins can be detected even if the surface is damaged or oxidized in successive events. In the present research, optical metallography (OM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) were used to detect microstructural modifications caused on AISI 304Cu steel disks by small-charge explosions. Spherical charges of 54.5 or 109 g TNT equivalent mass were used at explosive-to-target distances from 6.5 to 81.5 cm, achieving peak pressures from 160 to 0.5 MPa. Explosions induced limited or no macro-deformation. Two alloy grain sizes were tested. Surface OM and SEM evidenced partial surface melting, zones with recrystallization phenomena, and intense mechanical twinning, which was also detected by STM and X-ray diffraction. In the samples' interior, only twins were seen, up to some distance from the explosion impinged surface and again, at the shortest charge-to-sample distances, in a thin layer around the reflecting surface. For forensic science locating purposes after explosions, the maximum charge-to-target distance at which the phenomena disappear was singled out for each charge or grain size and related to the critical resolved shear stress for twinning.     

Allele frequencies for 15 autosomal STR loci and admixture estimates in Puerto Rican Americans

Allelic frequencies of 15 short tandem repeats (STR) markers (CSF1PO, FGA, THO1, TPOX, VWA, D3S11358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D21S11, D19S433 and D2S1338) were determined using the AmpFl STR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit in Puerto Rican American individuals (N=205) from Massachusetts. The FGA, D18S51 and D2S1338 loci had a high power of discrimination (PD) with values of 0.967, 0.965 and 0.961, respectively. Significant deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg (HW) equilibrium were not detected. An important genetic contribution of Caucasian European (76.4%) was detected in Puerto Rican Americans. However, comparative analysis between Puerto Rican American and other neighboring populations from United States mainly with African and Caucasian Americans, revealed significant differences in the distribution of STR markers. Our results are important for future comparative genetic studies of different American ethnic groups, in particular a cultural group called Hispanic-Americans and should be helpful for forensic and paternity testing.     

Omens of an early winter: The proportional vote and the changing Italian party system

Abstract The proportional arena has been designed as a buffer and corrective for the hard verdicts of the new Italian plurality system. However, the political impact of this arena is much deeper than its purely electoral role. It measures the loadings of single parties within coalitions and, subsequently, influences their interactions and bargaining tactics. The elections of April 1996 clearly show the effects of institutional learning by the different actors involved: voters, coalitions, candidates, etc. The analysis of electoral data shows the following main findings: (a) the remarkable equilibrium between left–wing and right–wing coalitions; (b) the gains made by the left thanks to its better ability to manage alliances with the centre and extreme left; (c) surprisingly little change in voter behaviour between 1994 and 1996, and most of what change there is deriving from vote nationalization. The main features of Italian electoral geography are also confirmed.     

How to lose a majority: the competition in single–member districts

Abstract Few observers expected that the 1966 elections in Italy would yield a clear–cut outcome. Even fewer people expected that, after the disastrous results of the previous elections, the centre–left coalition would be able to gain a majority of seats in both branches of Parliament. Yet this is precisely what happened on 21 April 1996. This article tries to explain the comeback of the 1994 losers by focusing on three factors which have changed the electoral balance between the two major coalitions in the single–member districts. The first factor was the ability of the centre–left coalition (Ulivo–RC) to broaden its range while its major rival (the Polo) lost key allies. The result has been a more competitive stand of centre–left candidates, particularly in the North. The Polo lost the support of the Lega Nord and suffered the split of the Movimento Sociale on its right. These defections, along with others, led to the loss of a considerable number of seats. Finally, the Polo also suffered from the defection of a considerable number of its voters who voted for one of the parties of the centre–right coalition in the proportional arena, but refused to vote for the Polo candidate in the single–member districts. We conclude by suggesting a number of hypotheses that could explain this split–ticket phenomenon.     

Political Fragmentation and Fiscal Outcomes

In this paper we develop the analysis ofthe effects on political fragmentation onfiscal policy in a number of ways. Weanalyze three kinds of fragmentation: sizeand control, institutional and over timefragmentation. In doing so we introduce anumber of new variables that allow us tolook at this issue in a broader way. At thesame time we have tackled somemethodological problems that affectedprevious analyses, using a panel of 19 OECDcountries over 1975–1995. Overall we findrelatively poor evidence in favor of sizeand over time fragmentation, and moreevidence of institutional and controlfragmentation.