Relative improvement over chance (RIOC) and phi as measures of predictive efficiency and strength of association in 2×2 tables

In a 2×2 table, phi measures the strength of the relationship and relative improvement over chance (RIOC) measures the predictive efficiency. A simplified formula for RIOC is derived. From the linkage between RIOC and the adjusted standardized residual, the variance of RIOC is calculated, thereby allowing its statistical significance to be tested. A disadvantage of phi is that its maximum value can be less than 1. A corrected phi correlation, obtained by dividing phi by the maximum possible phi, is shown to be mathematically identical to RIOC. Hence, there is a linkage between the percentage of correct predictions and the percentage of variance explained. RIOC is unchanged even when the social costs and benefits of the different outcomes are differentially weighted. RIOC is also mathematically identical to a corrected kappa calculated in a similar fashion to the corrected phi. Therefore, RIQC has distinct advantages over phi and kappa.     

The Prediction of Young Homicide and Violent Offenders

Aim was to investigate a range of potentially modifiable risk factors for boys in late childhood for later violence and homicide convictions. Boys from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (N = 1,517) were measured through self-reports and official records in late childhood (ages 11–13) on a large number of potentially modifiable risk factors, and were followed up in juvenile and adult criminal records in terms of violence and homicide. Predictors of conviction for homicide largely overlapped with predictors of conviction for violence. Twenty three out of 28 possible risk factors significantly predicted later violence convictions. Regression analysis identified four significant modifiable risk factors in late childhood for any violent offenders: physical abuse, parental stress, bad friends and low school motivation. The higher the number of early risk factors, the higher the probability of later conviction for violent offenses including homicide. The discussion focus on single-, and multi-modal interventions in late childhood to reduce later violence and possibly homicide.     

Psychopathy and affect consciousness in young criminal offenders

A key characteristic of psychopathy is the individual's problematic relation to certain affects, particularly shame. Previous research has studied relations between expressed shame and psychopathy. In this study, the author analyzes potential associations between psychopathy and consciousness of feelings (i.e., participants' ability to recognize and tolerate the feeling and describe how they believe it is expressed in their posture and verbal expressions). Psychopathy is assessed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version, and affect consciousness is assessed with a semistructured interview. Additionally, risk for criminal behavior, moral reasoning, cognitive distortions, and attachment style in the participants was assessed. The participants are 47 adolescent boys who were treated at juvenile delinquency homes. The results indicate that boys with higher ratings of psychopathy had lower consciousness of shame feelings and lower empathy scores. The results in combination with qualitative analyses of the interview answers are interpreted as indicating that consciousness of shame is specifically problematic for psychopathic adolescents.     

Project for a Kantian Europe

Immanuel Kant’s political treatise Perpetual Peace can be seen as a project for world peace with practical value. Applied to contemporary word politics, the United Nations is commonly seen to be the closest approximation of this project. This article argues that such a view is misguided and fails to perceive that the United Nations lacks crucial elements of a Kantian peace federation. Kant’s argumentation for perpetual peace rests on two pillars: peace through law and peace through institution. Both of these are necessary conditions that must be supplanted by an exclusive peace federation of republican states in order to make a sufficient guarantee for lasting peace. Viewed from this perspective, the European Union comes closest to a real-world Kantian peace federation, even though it remains a regional organization, and despite the current challenges it faces.     

Is Investor Purchasing of Foreclosures Related to Neighborhood Crime? Evidence From a Phoenix Suburb

Little is known about how investors purchasing foreclosures during the recent U.S. housing crisis are affecting neighborhood crime. While they may decrease crime by reducing vacancies or bettering neighborhood conditions, they may increase it by escalating neighborhood turnover. Combining local police department data on calls for service with foreclosure, home sales, and sociodemographic data, this research uses longitudinal modeling to assess the relation between the purchasing of foreclosures by investors and calls for service in neighborhoods in Chandler, Arizona, a Phoenix suburb where investors are renting former foreclosures. Neighborhoods where foreclosures were more often purchased by investors had more calls for service about violent crime the following year.     

Integrating biodiversity: a longitudinal and cross-sectoral analysis of Swiss politics

Policy Sciences - The effective conservation and promotion of biodiversity requires its integration into a wide range of sectoral policies. For this to happen, the issue must receive attention...     

The Involvement of Children in Decisions about Shared Residence

This article discusses the relationship between law and socialchange in connection with the child's right to participate indecisions on residence. The empirical data are drawn from asurvey of parents who have arranged shared residence for theirchildren. In line with earlier research on children's participationin court disputes over contact and residence, we found thatthe age of the child is decisive regarding the degree of influencethey have in private agreements. But, surprisingly, it was foundthat the educational level of the parents had a major impacton children's participation in decisions about shared residence.When we controlled for gender it turned out that highly educatedfathers were least likely of all parents to report that thechild had been taken into a co-decision process. This resultmight add a new dimension to our understanding of the relationshipbetween law and social change.     

Comparison of German population data on the apoB-HVR locus with other Caucasian, Asian and Black populations

A population study of 505 unrelated individuals from Southwestern Germany was carried out on the 3′-apoB hypervariable region (HVR). After amplification via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and agarose gel electrophoresis, 15 different alleles and 47 genotypes were observed. The most common alleles were hypervariable elements (HVE) 37 and 35 with an allele frequency of 0.374 and 0.244, respectively. The heterozygosity index was calculated to be 78.4%. Allele frequencies of this study are compared with results from other databases obtained from a French, a Spanish, an Asian and an American (Black) population.     

Fiscal and Spending Behavior of Local Governments: Identification of Price Effects when Prices are not Observed

This paper analyzes local public fiscal andspending behavior in a setting where localgovernments, represented by the dominantparty or coalition, are treated as utilitymaximizing agents. The econometricanalysis, which is based on a modifiedversion of ELES, recognizes total spendingas well as total income as endogenousvariables. Identification of the priceeffects is achieved by utilizing data onenvironmental cost factors and localtastes. The performance of the estimatedmodel is investigated by testing itsability to make out-of-sample predictionsof local government behavior.     

Consensus on validation of forensic voice comparison

Since the 1960s, there have been calls for forensic voice comparison to be empirically validated under casework conditions. Since around 2000, there have been an increasing number of researchers and practitioners who conduct forensic-voice-comparison research and casework within the likelihood-ratio framework. In recent years, this community of researchers and practitioners has made substantial progress toward validation under casework conditions becoming a standard part of practice: Procedures for conducting validation have been developed, along with graphics and metrics for representing the results, and an increasing number of papers are being published that include empirical validation of forensic-voice-comparison systems under conditions reflecting casework conditions. An outstanding question, however, is: In the context of a case, given the results of an empirical validation of a forensic-voice-comparison system, how can one decide whether the system is good enough for its output to be used in court? This paper provides a statement of consensus developed in response to this question. Contributors included individuals who had knowledge and experience of validating forensic-voice-comparison systems in research and/or casework contexts, and individuals who had actually presented validation results to courts. They also included individuals who could bring a legal perspective on these matters, and individuals with knowledge and experience of validation in forensic science more broadly. We provide recommendations on what practitioners should do when conducting evaluations and validations, and what they should present to the court. Although our focus is explicitly on forensic voice comparison, we hope that this contribution will be of interest to an audience concerned with validation in forensic science more broadly. Although not written specifically for a legal audience, we hope that this contribution will still be of interest to lawyers.