The robustness of the optimal weighted majority rule to probability distortion

This study identifies the optimal collective decision rule in a dichotomous symmetric setting, allowing for probabilities distortion as originally assumed by Tversky and Kahneman (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5(4):297–323, 1992). We show that previous results that identified the weighted majority rule as the optimal one, and did not consider subjective probabilities, are robust to such distortion in the sense that neither the rule nor the weights are changed.     

The IHRA Definition of Antisemitism: Defining Antisemitism by Erasing Palestinians

The IHRA definition is one of the most contentious documents in the history of efforts to combat antisemitism. Although it first became well known in the UK as a result of disputes within the Labour Party, the definition reaches well beyond that context, and has been adopted by universities, city councils, and governments. With its intensive focus on the critique of Israel as a marker of antisemitism, the IHRA definition has been heavily implicated in the suppression of Israel-critical speech in recent years. This article is among the first to adopt a global perspective on the definition—both its history and its content—clarifying the political stakes of this definition and broader paratextual apparatus for a general audience, and provides an explanation of why it should be rejected rather than used to censor Israel-critical speech.     

Polarised narratives and complex realities in Tanzania’s Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor

This article assesses the controversy surrounding a high-profile agricultural investment initiative, the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT), which aims to modernise, commercialise, and transform Tanzania’s agricultural sector. Drawing on a review of SAGCOT literature and findings from consultations with SAGCOT stakeholders and intended beneficiaries, the article outlines the polarised narratives of “opportunity” and “risk” informing SAGCOT debates, and presents research findings that challenge these narratives. The findings suggest that agricultural investments are rarely as glamorous or as gloomy in practice as the polarised narratives around SAGCOT suggest, and illustrate the challenges involved in directing agricultural investments in ways that balance multiple interests and objectives in practice.     

The Negev: Land,Settlement, the Bedouin and Ottoman and British Policy 1871–1948

Focusing on the sub-district of Beersheba in British Mandatory Palestine, we examine issues of colonial administration, land use, relations between the government and indigenous nomads and extension of government control over marginal regions. Based on archival primary written sources and maps, we assess British Mandatory policy in the Negev, in the contexts of land ownership, settlement and the Bedouin population. The British Mandatory administration inherited a Southern Palestine Negev region that had been affected by a robust Ottoman policy of increasing administrative intervention, policing, land settlement and overall projection of government power. During 30 years of Mandatory rule, the policy was markedly different. The Beersheba sub-district, which incorporated almost half the area of Mandatory Palestine, was a unique administrative unit, populated almost entirely by nomadic Bedouins. Although the Mandatory authorities foresaw land settlement and sedenterisation as a goal in Palestine, they did not apply their administrative apparatus to fulfil this policy in the Negev, neglecting much of it.     

Petra Kelly: The Other Green

Petra Kelly enjoyed celebrity status as cofounder and "leader" of the German Greens from 1979 to 1990. A prominent theoretician of the Greens, she broke ranks with the party on the issue of joining the Social Democrats in a governing coalition. She proposed, instead, that the Greens remain a radical parliamentary opposition force. Defeated in the All German parliamentary election of 1990, the Greens rejected Kelly's position and ultimately, in 1998, became the governing partner of the SPD. Ostracized and devastated by the 1990 defeat, Kelly spoke of "moving beyond the Greens." In 1992 she died under tragic circumstances. Her name sank into obscurity. Within our globalized era, however, Petra Kelly's ideas have particular salience. She represents the other Green who laid the foundations for a global political theory and for global political action.     

Questioning generational replacement. An age,period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 1971–2010

Political behavior has been changing all over Western Europe and electoral volatility is one of the facets of politics in which this change is apparent. Theories on stabilization of political attitudes and behavior in lifetime and the slow rate at which change in the electoral arena is found to proceed, have led to the assumption of generational replacement as the mechanism driving change. The Netherlands, however, provide a remarkably different case of this trend in electoral volatility. The country has shifted from an example of how cleavages stabilize politics to one of the most electorally volatile countries in Europe. The Dutch surge in electoral volatility thus contrasts with expectations of a slow process driven by generational replacement. Starting from this apparent contradiction between the evolution of volatility in the Netherlands and theories on generational replacement, this article investigates time effects of electoral volatility. The study is based on an age, period and cohort analysis on the repeated cross-sectional data of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies, 1971–2010. Based on characteristics of such repeated cross-sectional data, individuals are cross-classified in birth cohorts and election years respectively, which overcomes the identification problem inherent in cohort analyses. Results of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) indicate that, contrary to the hypothesis of new generations causing the increase in volatility, the Dutch change can be attributed primarily to period effects. As such, the analyses indicate that a general shift in the Dutch electorate has caused the growth in volatility and that supply-side factors should probably be analyzed when trying to explain electoral volatility.     

Parental Criminality, Family Violence and Intergenerational Transmission of Crime Within a Birth Cohort

Previous studies documented that crime is heavily concentrated in families. However, many studies relied on relatively small samples, often males and information on criminal involvement was self-reported. The present study investigates: (1) the prevalence of arrests in three generations; (2) the concentration of offenders and arrests within families; (3) the relationships between arrests among the relatives; (4) the relationship between arrests and family violence. A complete cohort of the families in which a child was born in a Dutch city was selected, and the arrests of all known family members (siblings, parents and grandparents) were investigated. Results showed that 7.2 % of the mothers and 18 % of the fathers had been arrested. The likelihood of parental arrests was related to the likelihood of grandparental arrests. There was clear evidence for assortative mating: when the mother was arrested, the likelihood that the father was arrested was increased with a factor five. Maternal arrests were also related to arrests of her parents-in-law. Arrests are heavily concentrated within families, 7.8 % of the families account for 52.3 % of the suspects. Arrests in family members constitute a major risk factor for poor developmental outcomes, such as criminal behavior. At the time of birth, it is possible to use information on arrests to select children who are at relatively high risk for the target of prevention efforts.Implications for prevention policies are discussed.     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Components underlying sex offender treatment refusal: an exploratory analysis of the Treatment Refusal Scale—Sex Offender version

Abstract

Approximately half of sexual offenders in prison and community settings refuse to participate in sex offender treatment programmes; however, the reasons for this remain largely unexplored. This pilot study used the previously untested Treatment Refusal Scale—Sexual Offender Version in an English prison, with 72 adult males (63 treatment accepters and nine treatment refusers) imprisoned for sexual or sexually motivated offences. Principal factors analysis revealed three factors within the scale: “pressured to take part in programmes”; “fear of negative effects”; and “programme is not relevant to/appropriate for me”. Treatment refusers scored more highly than treatment accepters on the first and last components, while there was no statistically significant difference in the scores of the two groups on the “fear of negative effects” component. Suggestions for further development of the scale are discussed, along with the practice implications of these findings.     

Reconviction following a cognitive skills intervention: An alternative quasi‐experimental methodology

Purpose. Enhanced Thinking Skills (ETS) has been the most widely delivered cognitive skills programme in the prisons of England and Wales. Four quasi‐experimental outcome studies have produced mixed results, a qualitative survey of offenders’ and facilitators’ experience on the programme proved useful in programme refinement, and a study using random allocation provided evidence that ETS impacts significantly and positively on short‐term attitudinal change. This study aims to make a further contribution, using another methodology, to the accumulation of evidence. Methods. This was a real‐world evaluation, comparing the reconviction outcomes of the population of 17,047 ETS participants in custody from 2000 to 2005 with a national cohort of 19,792 prisoners released over the same period. Results. Overall, prisoners who had attended ETS were found to reoffend at a rate 6.4 percentage points less than the cohort (rising to 7.5 percentage points for programme completers) and 9.5 percentage points less than the predicted rate. In all but the very highest risk group and in every sentence length band, the reoffending outcomes for ETS participants were significantly better than for prisoners in the cohort. Conclusions. It is argued that this non‐experimental methodology makes a contribution to the ‘What Works’ evidence.