Using Term Limits to Estimate Incumbency Advantages When Officeholders Retire Strategically

Empirical study of U.S. elections over the last 50 years has documented a strong electoral advantage to incumbency in state and federal elections. Recently, however, critics have argued that traditional estimates of the incumbency advantage may overstate the advantage by as much as 100% because the estimates fail to consider strategic retirements. This article directly examines whether or not strategic retirement biases conventional regression estimates of incumbency advantages. We use term limits in state executive and legislative elections as instrumental variables to correct for strategic retirement. We find that, as an empirical matter, strategic retirement is not substantively important. Estimates of incumbency advantages that take account of strategic retirement actually are marginally larger than estimates that do not.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE AND DEATH PENALTY CASES: Reflections on Change and the Empirical Justification of Constitutional Policy

This article investigates the use of social science and empirical data in the justification for declaring the death penalty unconstitutional. It does so by analysing the use of such materials in the briefs presented to the Supreme Court and the Court's response in major death penalty cases. The article finds that social science played a prominent role in the arguments of both the challengers and defenders of capital punishment. Applying concepts from decision-making theory, after analyzing the Court's decisions, the article concludes that social science will not provide a justification for the constitutional change requested.     

PAYING FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT: CHARGING FOR SERVICES

The latest Green Paper on reform of local government finance was published in January 1986. It represents an attempt to achieve local accountability which the present system is regarded as having failed to achieve. Increased use of fees and charges is seen as 'an even more direct way of ensuring that local people can see what they are getting for what they are paying' and, at the same time, 'has benefits in terms of efficiency as well as accountability'. This article critically appraises just what is meant by 'realistic charging policies', 'efficient use of resources' and 'effective pricing policies'. Realistic pricing policies are then outlined based on radical improvements in the nature and quality of information available to local authorities. The danger of a blinkered approach to increased use of charging is stressed and factors to be considered when reviewing charging are discussed.