The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote

In this article we explore the personal vote costs of redistricting. After redistricting, incumbents often face significant numbers of new voters—voters that were previously in a different incumbent's district. Existing conceptualizations of the incumbency advantage suggest that the cost to incumbents of having new voters should be relatively small and predictable. We propose a different formulation: a variable incumbency advantage. We argue that any incumbency advantage among the electorate is a function of short-term effects, partisanship, and electoral saliency. We use a massive untapped dataset of neighborhood-level electoral data to test our model and to demonstrate how the intersection of the personal vote, redistricting, and short-term environmental variables can provide a healthy margin to incumbents—or end their careers.     

China-EU convergence 1957–2003: towards a ‘strategic partnership’

This article looks at how the ‘strategic partnership’ announced in 2003 between the People’s Republic of China and the European Union came to be. Strategic geopolitical balancing and containment towards other third parties have been prominent features of their convergence, during a period when the EU developed more of a foreign policy dimension and China continued its economic surge. To some extent both actors in various ways began to see each others as partners in dealing with the Soviet Union and with the United States, and helping their own rise in the international system. Strategic convergence has taken place, though one could still notice China’s emphasis on geo-politics and multipolarization and the EU’s greater stress on geo-economics and multilateralism.     

Stage of Change as a Predictor of Attrition Among Men in a Batterer Treatment Program

This study assessed the contribution of the men's stage of change to the prediction of attrition among men attending a batterer treatment program. As outlined by the transtheoretical model of change, men were classified into the precontemplation, contemplation, or action stage based on their level of change motivation and behavior. It was hypothesized that men in the precontemplation stage would dropout of treatment at higher rates than men in later stages of change. Participants were 308 men who enrolled in a batterer treatment program over the course of 1 year, 61.4% of whom dropped out of treatment. Counselor rated, but not self-rated stage of change significantly predicted treatment completion once traditionally used demographic, contextual, and personality variables were taken into account. Specifically, men identified by counselors as being in the precontemplation stage were 2.3 times as likely as men rated in the contemplation stage and 8.8 times as likely as men rated in the action stage to dropout of treatment. Referral source, age, and history of arrest also made significant contributions to the prediction of attrition. The best combination of predictors led to the successful classification of 72% of the cases, 98% of the dropouts but only 19% of the completers. Discussion focuses on the limitations of current findings and their implications for the use of the transtheoretical model to predict attrition from batterer treatment.     

Using Profile Analysis for Assessing Need in Domestic Violence Courts

This study utilizes profile analysis to evaluate the social and economic justice impacts of domestic violence court processes. Data were gathered from all cases involved in a Domestic Violence Unified Family Court in one Florida county from January 1 through December 31, 2003. Findings suggest domestic violence courts are not responding equitably to victims (petitioners), which means that some petitioners may be revictimized by the system. Furthermore, in cases involving criminal behavior, the court system’s focus on criminality may not be having an impact on reducing the recurrence of domestic violence.     

International Dimensions: What Is the Role of Third Parties?

In the Arab–Israeli arena, third parties have traditionally played a prominent role. External intervention has tended to peak when violence threatens international interests (e.g., the 1973 Arab–Israeli War), or when the parties are unable to sustain a negotiating process. Whether providing political and security assurances aimed at mitigating insecurity or offering economic inducements to underwrite peace accords, third parties have made a number of positive contributions toward managing the conflict.     

Project Plowshare versus the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty

In 1957, representatives from the United States Atomic Energy Commission, the University of California Radiation Laboratory at Livermore, and other centres involved in nuclear research established Project Plowshare, a programme to apply the atom to what they called “peaceful nuclear explosions.” Although those involved in Plowshare proposed a variety of projects, they devoted most of their resources to the construction of a sea-level isthmian canal that would replace the existing Panama Canal. Turning that proposal into reality, however, ran into numerous roadblocks, amongst them the 1968 Treaty on the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. By 1970, the canal project had collapsed, and not long thereafter, Plowshare itself came to an end. But one desire of Plowshare scientists, that of creating “clean” nuclear explosives, may be in the offing. If developed, such devices could pose a threat to the existing non-proliferation regime.