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71.
Recent research has demonstrated that burglary clusters in space and time, resulting in temporal changes in crime hotspot
patterns. Offender foraging behavior would yield the observed pattern. The offender as forager hypothesis is tested by analyzing
patterns in two types of acquisitive crime, burglary and theft from motor vehicle (TFMV). Using a technique developed to detect
disease contagion confirms that both crime types cluster in space and time as predicted, but that the space–time clustering
of burglary is generally independent of that for TFMV. Police detections indicate that crimes of the same type occurring closest
to each other in space and time are those most likely to be cleared to the same offender(s), as predicted. The implications
of the findings for crime forecasting and crime linkage are discussed.
相似文献
Shane D. JohnsonEmail: |
72.
Recent contributions have used combinatorial algorithms to determine the likelihood of particular social choice violations in rank sum scoring. Given the broad importance of rank sum scoring (e.g., in non-parametric statistical testing, sporting competition, and mathematical competition), it is important to establish the level of ambiguity generated by this aggregation rule. Combinatorial likelihoods are naïve, however, in that they assume each possible outcome sequence for an event to be equally likely. We develop a computational algorithm to extend upon previous combinatorial results as to the likelihood of a violation of transitivity or independence in rank sum scoring. We use a similar computational scoring approach to analyze the empirically-observed likelihood of each such violation across fourteen NCAA Cross Country Championships. Within the data, rank sum scoring fails to specify a robust winning team (i.e., one that also rank sum wins against each possible subset of opponents) in 4 of 14 cases. Overall, we find that empirical likelihoods of social choice violations are consistently (significantly) overestimated by combinatorial expectations. In the NCAA data, we find correlated ability (quality) levels within team (group) and discuss this as a cause of lower empirical likelihoods. Combinatorial analysis proves reliable in predicting the order of empirical likelihoods across violation type and event setting. 相似文献
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Shane Darke Ph.D. Michelle Torok M.Soc.Sc. Johan Duflou M.Med.Path. F.R.C.P.A. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2013,58(2):432-435
All cases presenting to the New South Wales Department of Forensic Medicine between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2010 in which citalopram was detected were retrieved. A total of 348 cases were identified. Citalopram contributed to death in 21.0%, and was incidental in 79.0%. Cases in which citalopram was contributory to death had significantly higher blood citalopram concentrations than incidental cases (0.50 mg/L vs. 0.30 mg/L). Citalopram concentrations varied significantly by contributory status: sole citalopram toxicity (median = 1.30 mg/L), citalopram/other drug toxicity (0.50 mg/L), and incidental cases (0.30 mg/L). Citalopram concentrations also varied by suicide status, with the highest concentration found in suicides where citalopram contributed to death (0.70 mg/L) compared with 0.50 mg/L for nonsuicide cases where citalopram contributed to death. In almost all contributory cases (69/73), other psychoactive substances were also detected, most commonly benzodiazepines (47.9%), alcohol (45.2%), and opioids (40.1%). 相似文献
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Shane Darke Ph.D. Michelle Torok M.Soc.Sci. Johan Duflou M.Med.Path. F.R.C.P.A. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2014,59(4):1025-1028
Anabolic‐androgenic steroids (AASs) are frequently misused. To determine causes of death, characteristics, toxicology, and pathology of AAS positive cases, all cases (n = 24) presenting to the New South Wales Department of Forensic Medicine (1995–2012) were retrieved. All were male, and the mean age was 31.7 years. Deaths were mainly due to accidental drug toxicity (62.5%), then suicide (16.7%) and homicide (12.5%). Abnormal testosterone/epitestosterone ratios were reported in 62.5%, followed by metabolites of nandrolone (58.3%), stanozolol (33.3%), and methandienone (20.8%). In 23 of 24 cases, substances other than steroids were detected, most commonly psychostimulants (66.7%). In nearly half, testicular atrophy was noted, as was testicular fibrosis and arrested spermatogenesis. Left ventricular hypertrophy was noted in 30.4%, and moderate to severe narrowing of the coronary arteries in 26.1%. To summarize, the typical case was a male polydrug user aged in their thirties, with death due to drug toxicity. Extensive cardiovascular disease was particularly notable. 相似文献
79.
Evidence-based forensic psychological opinions require thorough and accurate information about examinees. Psychometric instruments can facilitate diagnostic decision making, but they rely on examinees to respond honestly to questions and put forth good effort on cognitive tests. Given the strong incentives for examinees in psychological injury cases to minimize prior problems and emphasize postaccident or posttrauma problems, the assessment of validity as part of forensic psychological evaluations is essential. Best practices in forensic psychology have their foundation in ethical principles. The purpose of this position statement is to promote ethical psychological practice in legal contexts by reviewing validity assessment issues and their ethical foundations. Because no previously published document focused specifically on symptom and performance validity assessment in psychological injury evaluations performed in forensic contexts, such a position statement provided by a professional organization devoted to the interface of psychological injury and law was needed to inform and guide practitioners and to educate other interested parties. The position statement emphasizes (a) the need for ethical practice in assessing validity, (b) consideration of factors such as culture and functional limitations, and (c) the importance of adopting a comprehensive, impartial, and scientific approach to validity assessment. The position statement acknowledges areas of differing opinions and the need for further research. 相似文献
80.
The Politics of Inclusive Agreements: towards a Critical Discourse Theory of Democracy 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Shane O'Neill 《Political studies》2000,48(3):503-521
This article offers a critical assessment of Jürgen Habermas's discourse theory of democracy. It suggests that the main thrust of a discursive account of legitimacy is the attempt to show how the demands of maximal democratic inclusion might be reconciled with a politics of reasoned agreements. While this aim is endorsed, the thrust of the argument is that a critical theory of democracy requires that normative frameworks that bring certain substantive features of democratic life into focus should supplement Habermas's procedural approach. First, the account of maximal inclusion has to be developed in a way that clarifies the egalitarian demands of distributive justice. Secondly, the account of a politics of reasoned agreements has to be connected to a theoretical analysis of the bonds of solidarity that could underpin such a form of political engagement. These developments contribute to a critical theory that gives a more adequate account of the motivational basis of discursive democracy. 相似文献