Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?

In most developing countries currency depreciation is said to be contractionary. This is because depreciation reduces the aggregate supply more than it increases the aggregate demand. However, emerging European economies have received no attention so far, mostly due to unavailability of data. Now that enough time-series data are available, we try to fill the gap by investigating the impact of real depreciation in effective exchange rates of Belarus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Slovak Republic on their domestic output. We find that in the short run real depreciation is expansionary in Belarus, Latvia, Poland, and Slovak Republic; contractionary in Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Russia; and has no effect in Lithuania. In almost none of the countries, the short-run effects last into the long run.

The Kurds in Iraq

The following briefs are edited versions of papers presented at the annual meeting of the Middle East Studies Association in Anchorage, Alaska, November 8, 2003. The editors were Hakan Yavuz and Michael Gunter, whose papers are included below. Why Kurdish Statehood is Unlikely , Michael M. Gunter, professor of political science, Tennessee Technological University, Cookeville, Tennessee Transnational Networks: New Opportunities and Constraints for Kurdish Statehood , Denise Natali, visiting research fellow, Washington Kurdish Institute (WKI); director of WKI's transnational project Turkey and Kurdistan‐Iraq, 2003 , Robert Olson, professor of Middle East and Islamic history, University of Kentucky Could a Kurdish State Be Set Up in Iraq? , Nihat Ali Özcan, author of PKK (Kurdistan ýpçi Partisi) Tarihi, Ideolojisi ve Yönetimi (Ankara: Asam, 1999) Kurdish Reality in an Emerging Iraq , Khaled Salih, University of Southern Denmark Provincial Not Ethnic Federalism in Iraq , M. Hakan Yavuz, associate professor of political science, University of Utah