Information diffusion within the electorate:: the asymmetric transmission of political–economic information

This paper examines the connection between information and expectations. Drawing upon Lazarsfeld et al.'s (Lazarsfeld, P.F., Berelson, B., Gaudet, H., 1944. The People's Choice. Duell, Sloan, and Pearce, New York) classic work on communication flows, we devise an asymmetric transmission model of expectation formation. This model assumes that the expectations of the less informed segments within the electorate are influenced by the expectations of more informed groups but that the opposite does not hold. We use educational differences as a proxy for information heterogeneity. A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis on monthly surveys of inflation expectations supports the asymmetric transmission hypothesis.     

Efficacy of an Intervention to Reduce the Use of Media Violence and Aggression: An Experimental Evaluation with Adolescents in Germany

Several longitudinal studies and meta-analytic reviews have demonstrated that exposure to violent media is linked to aggression over time. However, evidence on effective interventions to reduce the use of violent media and promote critical viewing skills is limited. The current study examined the efficacy of an intervention designed to reduce the use of media violence and aggression in adolescence, covering a total period of about 12 months. A sample of 683 7th and 8th graders in Germany (50.1% girls) were assigned to two conditions: a 5-week intervention and a no-intervention control group. Measures of exposure to media violence and aggressive behavior were obtained about 3 months prior to the intervention (T1) and about 7 months post-intervention (T2). The intervention group showed a significantly larger decrease in the use of violent media from T1 to T2 than the control group. Participants in the intervention group also scored significantly lower on self-reported aggressive behavior (physical aggression and relational aggression) at T2 than those in the control group, but the effect was limited to those with high levels of initial aggression. This effect was mediated by an intervention-induced decrease in the normative acceptance of aggression. No gender differences in program efficacy were found. The results show that a 5-week school-based intervention can produce changes in the use of media violence, aggressive norms, and behaviors sustained over several months.     

Supporting the Iron Fist: Crime News,Public Opinion,and Authoritarian Crime Control in Guatemala

Authoritarian responses to rising violent crime rates have become a serious problem in Central America. Inspired by theories of agenda setting and media framing, this article examines the influence of news media coverage of crime on attitudes toward crime control. Using an original survey experiment, it tests the relationship between crime news, fear of crime, trust in government institutions, and support for authoritarian crime control measures in Guatemala. It finds that crime news influences support for authoritarian crime control via its effect on lowering citizen trust in government institutions. Exposure to crime news also affects self‐reported victimization rates and levels of support for a presidential candidate promoting iron fist policies. These findings not only give insight into the relationship between crime news and political attitudes but also have implications for the rule of law and the politics of crime in new or fragile democracies.     

Reducing the legal consequences of a felony conviction: A national survey of state statutes ten years later

This study surveys all state and federal statutes in an effort to determine the current legal procedures available for restoring a convicted felon's civil rights, and then compares the findings with those of Burton et al. (1988). The findings report virtually no changes in legal codes over the past ten years by states to increase pardons, expungement, or automatic restoration of rights opportunities for former offenders. Southern states continue to be most restrictive of civil and legal rights, given the few existing legal mechanisms to remove the effects of a felony conviction. Explanations for this apparent legislative inactivity of legal remedies are discussed.     

Organizational Structure and the Optimal Design of Policymaking Panels: Evidence from Consensus Group Commissions’ Revenue Forecasts in the American States

Increasing both the size and diversity of policymaking panels is widely thought to enhance the accuracy of collective policy decisions. This study advances the theoretical conditions in which improving collective accuracy necessitates an efficient trade‐off between a panel's size and its level of organizational diversity. This substitution effect between these organizational characteristics is empirically supported with data on official general‐fund revenue forecasts made by consensus group (CG) independent commissions in the American states. Evidence of an asymmetric substitution effect is also uncovered, whereby increasing organizational diversity in large CG commissions produces revenue forecasts that reduce collective accuracy by slightly more than three times as much compared to decreasing such diversity in small CG commissions. This study underscores the limits of organizational diversity as a mechanism for improving collective judgments when policymaking authority is diffuse among many panel members.     

Solution-Focused Trauma-Informed Care (SF-TIC): An Integration of Models

Trauma-informed care is a rapidly emerging approach in child welfare and is significantly aligned with the core tenets and techniques of solution-focused practice. The integration of solution-focused practices and trauma-informed care offers an alternative to the problem-solving method frequently employed in child welfare. This paper describes and demonstrates how using a Solution-Focused Trauma-Informed Care (SF-TIC) approach can shift individuals and systems from a problem-solving focus to solution building. SF-TIC provides individuals with concrete skills, language and knowledge to effectively avoid inadvertent re-traumatization. Evaluation of this approach is in its infancy and future research is warranted.     

Determinants of civil war in post-colonial Asia, 1950-1992: the role of trade openness and economic development

Although Asia has experienced civil war about as often as Sub-SaharanAfrica during the post-World War II era, there have been fewsystematic investigations into the determinants of civil warin Asia. This article examines the effects of trade opennessand economic development on the onset of civil war in post-colonialAsia, controlling for political, demographic, and geographicfactors. Analyzing data on post-colonial Asian states between1950 and 1992, we find that the onset of civil war is less likelywith increased trade openness. However, when taking into accountinteraction between trade openness and economic development,we discover that increased trade openness reduces the likelihoodof civil war onset significantly only in the context of higheconomic development. This result is robust with different modelspecifications.     

Mitochondrial DNA in the Central European population. Human identification with the help of the forensic mt-DNA D-loop-base database

Sequencing of mtDNA is an advanced method for the individualisation of traces. Disadvantages of this method are expensive and time-consuming analysis and evaluation procedures as well as the necessary stock of population-genetic data which is still insufficient. Central European institutes of forensic medicine from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland have been working together since the beginning of 1998 to establish a mtDNA database. The aim is to build up a large stock of forensically established data and provide population-genetic data for frequency investigations, which will serve as a basis for expert opinions and scientific research. Good data quality is ensured by using original sequences only. Ring tests, which have been conducted to enhance analytical reliability, revealed a high correspondence rate of the analytical results obtained by the individual member institutes. Today 1410 sequences are available for comparison, of which 1285 sequences in the HV1 and HV2 regions cover the full ranges from 16051 to 16365 and from 73 to 340 (according to Anderson). The major part is formed by Central European sequences comprising 1256 data sets from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Today the database contains sequences from a total of 12 European, six African and three Asian countries including 100 sequences from Japan. This paper is aimed at discussing the individualisation potentials of mtDNA as well as the possibilities and limits of ethnic differentiation by means of pairwise sequence differences on the basis of the data stock available.