The British general election of 2010 under different voting rules

The 2010 British election resulted in what the British refer to as a “hung Parliament” for the first time in over a generation. This result further heightened the debate over the fairness and utility of the nation’s centuries-old first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. Survey data are used to simulate the election outcome under four different electoral systems beyond FPTP: round-robin pair-wise comparisons, the Borda count, the alternative vote, and Coombs' method. Results suggest that in 2010, the Liberal-Democrats were Condorcet preferred to all other parties and would have won a national election under every tested method except the alternative vote, the method supported by the Liberal-Democrats during the referendum in May 2011 and, of course, FPTP as actually used.     

How does the economy shape policy preferences?

How do changes in the economy translate into shifts in aggregate preferences for a more or less activist government in the U.S.—a construct referred to as “policy mood”? Existing theories pose alternative explanations based on either a Maslow Hierarchy of Needs model, where citizens prefer an activist federal government to expand the social safety net when the economic future looks bright (Durr, 1993), or a Phillips Curve model (Erikson et al., 2002), in which the objective economic maladies of inflation and unemployment drive policy mood. We show that neither of these explanations withstands empirical scrutiny when analysis is extended beyond the time period of the original authors' work, suggest the existing wisdom tying the economy to policy mood is wrong, and offer some alternative avenues to pursue in search of an answer to the question: What moves policy mood?     

Cold War Pioneers in Combined Intelligence and Analysis

From its inception in 1947 until the late 1970s the primary missions of the United States Military Liaison Mission (USMLM) involved maintaining a presence in East Germany for confidence building measures and reporting on items related to indicators and warnings of hostilities initiated by the Soviet Army. While not abandoning its traditional missions, the unit underwent a major transformation in the early 1980s and became the first Humint integrated collection, analysis and production center. Through a combination of factors, USMLM was able to link targeting, single-source collection and analysis while providing insights in a wide range of areas, from nuclear weapons, troop morale, equipment production, technical data, health and ethnic issues and literacy. Most significantly, USMLM confirmed severely reduced manning levels in GSFG combat arms units.

‘Intelligence is best done by a minimum number of men and women of the greatest possible ability.’ (R.V. Jones, the ‘father’ of modern scientific and technical intelligence)     

National Assessment by the National Security Council Staff 1968–80: An American Experiment in a British Style of Analysis?

At a time of intense debate over the specific organizational arrangements of American national security agencies with new or refocused intelligence responsibilities, the relative proximity between intelligence producers and consumers is a key issue. Intelligence capabilities may have to be kept separate from decision-making because of organizational economies of scale and scope, but separation alone does not mean intelligence must be distant from decision-making. For example, the British style of analysis involves a much closer relationship between intelligence producers and consumers than exists in the American context. Efforts to improve the integration of intelligence into decision-making by closing the distance between them would do well to study the history and efficacy of this process as they look to create new ways of structuring the relationship between intelligence analysis and decision-making. Specifically, history demonstrates that the US National Security Council staff implemented a process in 1968 through 1980 that approximated the British style of analysis, and this may provide US policymakers with a model for bridging the gap between intelligence analysis and decision-making.     

The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks: A Failure of Policy Not Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

The 9/11 terrorist attacks have been intensively examined as both tactical and strategic intelligence failures but less attention has been paid to the policy failures which preceded them. Perhaps this is due to the presumption that intelligence analysis influences decision-making as a precursor to and foundation for policy. This assumption about the influence of analysis on decision deserves a much closer examination. The 9/11 terrorist attacks provide a good case to study for greater understanding of the influence, or lack of influence, that intelligence analysis has on decision-making. Specifically, the 9/11 Commission Report identifies as a significant failure the lack of a National Intelligence Estimate on the terrorist threat between 1998 and 2001, and implies that if one had been produced it might have helped enable decision-makers to prevent the 9/11 attacks. In other words, a failure of strategic intelligence analysis lay at the foundation of the failure to prevent 9/11. But was this really the case? This article takes a closer look at the case of the missing National Intelligence Estimate by first evaluating what decision-makers knew about the threat prior to the 9/11 attacks, the policies they were implementing at the time, and the extent to which the hypothetical National Intelligence Estimate described by the 9/11 Commission would have mattered in terms of influencing their judgement and policy for the better. It concludes that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were more a failure of policy than strategic intelligence analysis.     

Political power and political subsystems: Parsons' analysis of politics

In the field of sociological analyses of politics and power Parsons' contribution has tended to be dismissed abruptly as the ultimate expression of ‘consensus’ theory, and has been accused of denying the existence of social tensions and social change. This paper argues that this tendency is quite inadequate, indeed erroneous, and proposes a distinct mode of critique of Parsons' theory of politics and power. On the basis of an outline of the major concepts of this theory, the concepts of functional subsystems, system-goals and structural differentiation, it shows that Parsons has produced a distinct but nevertheless theoretically problematic framework for socio-political analysis. His concept of system-interchange is shown to be based on a contradictory treatment of subsystems and human subjects, and his outline of structural differentiation is shown to produce a theoretical teleology.     

Undelivered: the space/time of the sacred in Bataille and Benjamin

Bataille’s work of the 1930s on the sacred has strong echoes of Walter Benjamin’s writing on space and messianic time. In bringing together Bataille’s theoretical and fictional writings, alongside key Benjamin texts, this article seeks to develop our understanding of a perversely grounded sacred.     

In the shadow of the pharaohs: the militarization of labour debate and classical Marxist theory

This article considers the Bolsheviks’ proposals to militarize labour. While concerned ostensibly to secure a steady supply of disciplined labour during the civil war, this was clearly seen as a means to effect a transition to communism. Labour militarization was understood as an instrument to suppress commodity production, which would help usher in a new form of socialized labour. The theoretical roots of this policy can be found in Marx's writings on commodity production and ideology. Although Marx believed that the commodity form would be overcome through endogenous structural developments, there is no reason to suppose the forceful suppression of commodity production cannot produce the same outcome.     

Controlling money during socialist economic reform: the Chinese experience

Contrary to the easy job that some conservative economists imagine, the task faced by the socialist monetary authority in controlling the money supply during economic reform is a daunting one, as recent experience in China indicates. It is difficult to estimate the demand for money in the mixed system that has emerged from the reform process, with all its structural disequilibria. Given prevailing economic and political interferences, keeping the money supply within targets is also beset with problems. Monetary issues have not received much attention in the conventional discourse about socialist economics, before or during reform. Hence the Chinese central bank often has to take uninformed action on events that it cannot effectively control. The results could be very serious, even tragic. In any case, it seems that the bank should not shoulder the main blame.     

The Australian Environmental Policy Agenda

This paper seeks to identify major shifts in the Australian environmental policy agenda over the past fifty years, and discusses the possible causes of and variables affecting agenda change. The issue of what comprises ‘environment’ policy is discussed, with reference to overlaps and intersections with other policy sectors such as agriculture, public health, energy and regional affairs. While the diversity of the environment policy domain complicates any analysis of trends, there have been two persistent trends of (i) an expansion from a more narrowly to a more broadly defined suite of issue (from environment to sustainable development) and incorporation of environment into natural resource management, and (ii) an increasing diversity of policy instruments being used. Consistent with the wide variety of issues confronted, pragmatism and convenience are often as influential as political ideology or underlying trajectories. The drivers of policy change are diverse, including biophysical factors such as drought, political leaders and international policy developments, and punctuations are often better interpreted as intensification or redirections of past policy trajectories.