Government Hedging: Motivation, Implementation, and Evaluation

This article examines option hedging strategies that enable politicians to manage budgetary risk. While the theoretical risk management arguments are general, the simulation analysis considers the example of oil revenue risk in Texas, and estimates the costs and benefits of an option hedging program. To evaluate government option hedging strategies, the study develops a hedge quotient measure that compares the future value of realized revenues plus net option proceeds to the future value of expected revenue. The average hedge quotient is found to be lower for the option hedging strategy than for the unhedged position, illustrating the cost of an option hedging program. Nevertheless, option hedging effectively manages extreme downside risk and stops large budget deficits from occurring. Politicians may also like option hedging because it preserves the potential of realizing budget surpluses.     

Clinically Significant Trauma Symptoms and Behavioral Problems in a Community-based Sample of Children Exposed to Domestic Violence

This study assessed the associations of characteristics of domestic violence incidents with clinically significant levels of traumatic symptoms and behavioral problems in a socio-economically and ethnically mixed sample of 687 children participating in a community-service program for children witnessing violence. Study predictors included child/family demographic characteristics, type and chronicity of exposure, and child’s perceptions of control over the event and threat to personal safety. Outcomes consisted of traumatic symptoms and behavior problems. Results showed that perceived threat and control were associated with greater odds of clinically significant levels of several trauma symptoms (and behavior problems in the case of perceived threat) after adjusting for effects of demographic factors and violence characteristics. Child co-victimization increased odds of reaching clinically significant levels of traumatic symptoms compared to children who witnessed the event but were not victimized. Female sex and White ethnicity increased odds of specific trauma symptoms and behavior problems. Increasing age reduced odds of some trauma symptoms. Associations between predictors and one outcome measure did not generalize across the other outcome measure. Implications of study findings, and directions for future research are discussed.     

‘From Seoul with Love’ — The Continuing Relevance of the 1986 Seoul ILA Declaration on Progressive Development of Principles of Public International Law Relating to a New International Economic Order

Netherlands International Law Review -     

A novel histological technique for distinguishing between epithelial cells in forensic casework

There are a number of forensic cases in which the identification of the epithelial cell type from which DNA originated would provide important probative evidence. This study aimed to develop a technique using histological staining of fixed cells to distinguish between skin, buccal and vaginal epithelium. First, 11 different stains were screened on formalin-fixed, wax-embedded cells from five women. Samples were analysed qualitatively by examining staining patterns (colour) and morphology (absence or presence of nuclei). Three of the staining methods – Dane's, Csaba's and Ayoub-Shklar – were successful in distinguishing skin epithelial cells from buccal and vaginal. Second, cells were smeared directly onto slides, fixed with one of five fixatives and stained with one of the three stains mentioned above. Methanol fixation, coupled with the Dane's staining method, specific to keratin, was the only technique that distinguished between all three cell types. Skin cells stained magenta, red and orange and lacked nuclei; buccal cells stained predominantly orange–pink with red nuclei; while vaginal cells stained bright orange with orange nuclei and a blue extracellular hue. This staining pattern in vaginal cells was consistent in samples collected from 50 women aged between 18 and 67. Identification of cell type from unlabelled micrographs by 10 trained observers showed a mean success rate of 95%. The results of this study demonstrate that histological staining may provide forensic scientists with a technique for distinguishing between skin, buccal and vaginal epithelial cells and thus would enable more conclusive analyses when investigating sexual assault cases.     

Interrogation of short tandem repeats using fluorescent probes and melting curve analysis: A step towards rapid DNA identity screening

Current forensic DNA profiling methods rely on the analysis of samples at specialised laboratories with an average turnaround time of several days. The ability to rapidly determine a partial profile of short tandem repeats at the point-of-arrest would be of great benefit to police forces around the world, for example enabling a suspect to be rapidly included or excluded from an investigation. We have developed a homogeneous PCR method for the interrogation of STR loci utilising fluorescent oligonucleotide probes and melting curve analysis. Alleles of the D18S51, TH01 and D8S1179 loci were differentiated and identified on the basis of target length and probe melting temperature. Assay performance was evaluated by comparing melting peak data with the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® system. The method is compatible with direct analysis of unpurified buccal swab samples, enabling a partial STR profile to be generated within 1 h.     

Use of the MMPI-2 to predict the employment continuation and performance ratings of recently hired police officers

The MMPI-2 is one of the most frequently employed instruments for the selection of police officers. Serafino and Serafino (1997) collected data which involved information about employment continuation and ratings by supervisors of 32 police officers who had recently been hired and who had been given the MMPI-2 during the hiring process. In this study, the Paranoia Obvious (Pa) and Paranoia Subtle (Ps) scales proved to be the significant. Pa Subtle correlated with removal whereas Pa Obvious correlated with rating. Higher scores on Pa Subtle correlated significantly with being removed from the job, whereas low scores on the Pa Obvious correlated with higher ratings of performance by supervisors. Discussion of the results involved the fact that Subtle Pa scores would suggest paranoid tendencies not easily detected during the interview. Since most high Pa Obvious individuals would have been eliminated in the hiring process, expression of this tendency was at a low level after being hired but if present resulted in low ratings. Significant predictors were noted to be very much a function of the type of criterion variable employed in the study.     

Out of Darkness into Light? Introducing the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

On 13 December 2006, the General Assembly of the United Nationsadopted the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities(CRPD) and an associated Optional Protocol. The formulationof the CRPD has been hailed as a great landmark in the struggleto reframe the needs and concerns of persons with disabilityin terms of human rights. The CRPD is regarded as having finallyempowered the world's largest minority to claim their rights,and to participate in international and national affairs onan equal basis with others who have achieved specific treatyrecognition and protection. This essay interrogates the intellectualantecedents of the CRPD and its continuity and discontinuitywith 25 years of international law and its struggles with disabilityand human rights. It then explores the text of the CRPD, criticallyexamining its potential contribution to the realisation of therights of persons with disability.     

Does the stereotypical personality reported for the male police officer fit that of the female police officer

This research, using the content, validity and clinical scales found in the MMPI-2, investigates the differences in the psychological makeup of male versus female police recruits. The research design involves testing of police recruits on the first day of their academy experience. The literature on the police personality suggest that there exists a stereotype for male officers, a finding replicated in this study. The findings of this research also suggest that female officers do not generally fit the stereotype found in the study of male officers. An earlier version of this paper was present at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, March 12–16, 1996, Las Vegas, Nevada.