The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

China and Europe: engagement,multipolarity and strategy

Abstract

Ever closer relations between China and Europe over the last decade have sparked speculation about an emerging axis or balance of power vis-à-vis the United States. China, the European Union and its key member states have expressed a preference for a more balanced international order based on multilateral institutions. Despite a rapid and extensive expansion in economic and political relations between China and the European Union, there is no evidence for balancing against the United States in strategic areas. Rather, the variations in the positions of China, the European Union and the United States can more accurately be seen as policy or interest bargaining. Because the European Union does not share US security interests in the Asia-Pacific region, the European Union and its key member states can seem at variance with the US position on China. Bargaining over the failed attempt to lift the European Union's arms embargo against China shows that the European Union and the United States are not so far apart on strategic issues in the Asia-Pacific.     

On Biehl's Defense of Bookchin's Immanent Dialectic

Stephen G. Bunker. Underdeveloping the Amazon: Extraction, Unequal Exchange, and the Failure of the Modern State. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1985.

Susanna Hecht and Alexander Cockburn: The Fate of the Forest: Developers, Destroyers and Defenders of the Amazon. Harper Perennial, New York, 1990.

Chico Mendes: Fight for the Forest: Chico Mendes in His Own Words. (Additional material by Tony Gross). Latin American Bureau, London, 1989; distributed in U.S. by Monthly Review Press.     

Abstracts of papers given at the 25th annual conference of the Scottish legal history group

Modern Legal History. A. H. Manchester. London. 1980. Butterworths. xxv and 419 pp (incl. Index). £14.50 cased, £9.75 limp.

Introduction historique au droit. John Gilissen. Brussels. 1979. Emile Bruylant. 756 pp. 2200 Bfr. (2075 Bfr. abroad).

Legal Evolution: The Story of an Idea. Peter Stein. Cambridge. 1980. Cambridge University Press. xi and 131 pp (incl. Index). £15.00 cased.

Judecata Domneasca în Tara Româneasca ?i Moldova (1611–1831) (Princely Justice in Wallachia and Moldavia, 1611–1831) Part I. Judicial Organisation, 1611–1740 by V. A. Georgescu and P. Strihan. Editura Academiei Republicii Socialiste România, Bucharest, 1979, 218 pp. Lei 17.

Bizantul ?i Institutiile Române?ti pîna la Mijlocul Secolului al XVIII lea (Byzantium and Romanian Institutions until the mid‐18th century) by V. A. Georgescu. Editura Academiei Republicii Socialiste Romania, Bucharest, 1979, 296 pp. Lei 22.50.

TUC: The Growth of a Pressure Group 1868–1976. Ross M. Martin. Oxford. 1980. Clarendon Press. xiii and 394 pp (incl. Index). £14.00 cased.