Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Predicting future smoking of adolescent experimental smokers

This prospective study examined the usefulness of seven selected variables from Jessor and Jessor's problem behavior theory in predicting the future smoking levels of adolescent experimental smokers. Experimental smokers were identified through a survey of 2,550 seventh- and eighth-grade students assessing subjects' current smoking levels as well as subjects' responses to the selected variables. Twelve months later the entire sample was resurveyed to assess subsequent smoking levels of subjects initially reporting experimental smoking. Experimental smokers who responded to both surveys (n=225) were subjects of the present study. The full model discriminant function was significant in discriminating between the two groups; 68% of the subjects were correctly classified. This moderately successful hit rate was 24% better than what could be expected by chance. Increased smokers had lower expectations for academic achievement, had stronger beliefs about the positive functions of smoking, and perceived more smoking among their classmates and close friends. Educational interventions are suggested.Received Ph.D. from the University of Nebraska in 1987. Research interests include human behavior change strategies.Received Ph.D. from University of Illinois in 1968. Research interests include behavior and health.     

Weakening partisanship and the higher educated in Britain

Abstract. The decline in support for traditional political parties in a number of Western democracies is often attributed to the effects of recent educational expansion and a consequent rise in cognitive mobilisation in the electorate. The thesis that support for the two major parties in Britain is lowest among the young educated is tested here, using survey data for the period 1964–1983. The analysis indicates that for only a short time in the early 1970s was there evidence of such a relationship, and that differences in major-party support which are related to age and to educational achievement have all but disappeared by the 1980s. Moreover, the findings cast serious doubt upon the validity of current operationalisations of 'cognitive mobilisation'.     

A multinominal logit analysis of the influence of policy variables and board experience on FOMC voting behavior

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper we employ multinominal logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy.     

When Public Protection Becomes Punishment? The UK Use of Civil Measures to Contain the Sex Offender

In keeping with many countries the UK has moved the problem of sexual offending up the political agenda. On the criminal justice side sentences have been increased and supervision periods extended. On the civil side a raft of new measures have been put in place to regulate the behaviour of sex offenders in the interest of community safety and child protection; this paper examines these measures and, in particular takes the sex offender ‘register’ as a case study to show how political imperatives have been brought to bear with little reference to the research or professional views of practitioners in this area. It is contended that under these political pressures, what starts life as a preventive, regulatory measure can easily become a more punitive measure in its own right; as such it may be liable to challenge by those subject to it for failing to fulfil its primary purpose and for straying across a line between the civil and criminal aspects of intervention.