The Wisdom of Crowds: Learning from Administrators' Predictions of Citizen Perceptions

Public agencies use surveys to solicit feedback from citizens and targeted customer groups, but many experts question whether the results of these surveys are valuable. This paper explores how a recent innovation in citizen surveys—asking public administrators to predict how citizens will respond to survey questions—may be used to increase that value and, at the same time, provide additional data of interest on its own account. The innovation is explored through two surveys: (1) a public opinion poll of Georgia residents conducted by the authors for the Georgia Department of Transportation in January 2004, and (2) a brief survey of that agency's administrators asking for their predictions of public opinion. The prediction process appeared to increase the agency's interest in the resident survey. The findings document the frequent superiority of groups—what Surowiecki terms "the wisdom of crowds"—over individuals in predicting public opinion.     

Unanimous decision making on the U.S. Supreme Court: Case stimuli and judicial attitudes

Although behavioral scholars have devoted much time and energy to attempting to explain decision making on the U.S. Supreme Court, they have virtually ignored the unanimous decision. We investigated the Vinson, Warren, and Burger Courts and discovered that the liberal outcome was more successful in the unanimous cases whether those cases involve civil liberties or economic liberalism and whether they were decisions to reverse or decisions to affirm. We also ascertained that the ideological position that tended to win in the unanimous reverse cases was related to the ideological position that tended to win in the nonunanimous reverse cases, but that no such relationship was present in the two kinds of affirm cases. These two findings are in conformity with a psychometric model, which posits that the relative position of judicial attitudes and case stimuli determines the vote on the U.S. Supreme Court.     

The awakening of the red dragon. China fills the power vacuum in the Far East

The paper analyses the basic parameters of the power of China, according to Geopolitical Theory. Even though the authors adopt a critical approach on some aspects of the geopolitical theory, the geopolitical analysis elucidates the interests of China and the United States and focuses on the way of which the American decision-making system perceives China. The article interprets the geopolitical role of China, starting from the origins of geopolitical theory to the contemporary international relations theory. In addition, it focuses on the current geo-strategic context of the Far East. It analyses Chinas' strategic thinking, China's nuclear doctrine and its military power as compared to the neighbouring countries and as a major player in the world economy.

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Weight force during prone restraint and respiratory function

Prone maximal restraint position (PMRP, also known as hogtie or hobble) is often used by law enforcement and prehospital personnel on violent combative individuals in the field setting. Weight force is often applied to the restrained individual's back and torso during the restraint process. We sought to determine the effect of 25 and 50 lbs weight force on respiratory function in human subject volunteers placed in the PMRP. We performed a randomized, cross-over, controlled trial on 10 subjects placed in 4 positions for 5 minutes each: sitting, PRMP, PRMP with 25 lbs weight force (PMRP+25), and PRMP with 50 lbs weight force placed on the back (PMRP+50). We measure pulse oximetry, end-tidal CO2 levels, and forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). FVC and FEV1 were significantly lower in all restraint positions compared with sitting but not significantly different between restraint positions with and without weight force. Moreover, mean oxygen saturation levels were above 95% and mean end-tidal CO2 levels were below 45 mm Hg for all positions. We conclude that PMRP with and without 25 and 50 lbs of weight force resulted in a restrictive pulmonary function pattern but no evidence of hypoxia or hypoventilation.