劫持人质谈判心理应对策略

谈判是警方处置暴力劫持人质犯罪过程中常常使用的主要手段之一。针对我国目前暴力劫持人质案件大幅度上升的趋势,全面了解和准确把握谈判的心理应对策略,对于减少和避免不必要的伤亡和损失,妥善处置这类案件具有重要的现实意义。     

Public Administration Research in Norway: Organization theory, institutionalism and empirical studies in a democratic context

This article gives a broad overview of Norwegian research on public administration over the past 40 years. The main picture that emerges is that a Norwegian public administration built primarily on Webernian principles has lost some but not all these original properties. It describes a research tradition based on organizational theory and democratic theory. It also paints a picture of public administration as integrated into a complex network of domestic political institutions, public agencies, organized interests and clients, as well as extensive European and international networks. It shows how a strong theoretical tradition, based on bounded rationality, is supplemented by different types of institutional theories and increased theoretical pluralism. Finally, the paper underlines the importance of considering public administration not simply from an internal technical viewpoint, but of placing the discipline in a wider political and democratic context.     

Electoral Competition through Issue Selection

Politics must address multiple problems simultaneously. In an ideal world, political competition would force parties to adopt priorities that reflect the voters' true concerns. In reality, parties can run their campaigns in such a way as to manipulate voters' priorities. This phenomenon, known as priming, may allow parties to underinvest in solving the issues that they intend to mute. We develop a model of endogenous issue ownership in which two vote‐seeking parties (a) invest in policy quality to increase the value of their platform and (b) choose a communication strategy to prime voters. We identify novel feedback between communication and investment. In particular, we find that stronger priming effects can constrain parties to invest more resources in all issues. We also identify the conditions under which parties prefer to focus on their “historical issues” or to engage in “issue stealing.”     

Development of Forensic Assay Signatures for Ebolaviruses

Ebolaviruses are a diverse group of RNA viruses comprising five different species, four of which cause fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans. Because of their high infectivity and lethality, ebolaviruses are considered major biothreat agents. Although detection assays exist, no forensic assays are currently available. Here, we report the development of forensic assays that differentiate ebolaviruses. We performed phylogenetic analyses and identified canonical SNPs for all species, major clades and isolates. TaqMan‐MGB allelic discrimination assays based on these SNPs were designed, screened against synthetic RNA templates, and validated against ebolavirus genomic RNAs. A total of 45 assays were validated to provide 100% coverage of the species and variants with additional resolution at the isolate level. These assays enabled accurate forensic analysis on 4 “unknown” ebolaviruses. Unknowns were correctly classified to species and variant. A goal of providing resolution below the isolate level was not successful. These high‐resolution forensic assays allow rapid and accurate genotyping of ebolaviruses for forensic investigations.     

Sex Classification Using the Three‐Dimensional Tibia Form or Shape Including Population Specificity Approach

The aims of this study were to enable geometric morphometric sex classification using tibial proximal and distal sexual dimorphism and to evaluate the secular trend of tibial shape/form from the early 20th century to the present day. The study samples consisted of 61 adult tibias from an early 20th‐century Czech population and 57 three‐dimensional tibias from a 21st‐century population. Discriminant function analysis with cross‐validation was carried out to assess the accuracy of sex classification. Shape analysis revealed significant sex differences in both tibial extremities of the 21st‐century sample and in the proximal tibia of the 20th‐century population. Sex‐based divergence varied between the analyzed samples, raising the issues of population specificity and diachronic change. Classification using tibial form was more successful than using tibial shape. The highest values of correct assignment (91.80% and 88.52%) were found using the form from the early 20th Czech population.     

Simulation Detection in Handwritten Documents by Forensic Document Examiners

This study documents the results of a controlled experiment designed to quantify the abilities of forensic document examiners (FDEs) and laypersons to detect simulations in handwritten documents. Nineteen professional FDEs and 26 laypersons (typical of a jury pool) were asked to inspect test packages that contained six (6) known handwritten documents written by the same person and two (2) questioned handwritten documents. Each questioned document was either written by the person who wrote the known documents, or written by a different person who tried to simulate the writing of the person who wrote the known document. The error rates of the FDEs were smaller than those of the laypersons when detecting simulations in the questioned documents. Among other findings, the FDEs never labeled a questioned document that was written by the same person who wrote the known documents as “simulation.” There was a significant statistical difference between the responses of the FDEs and layperson for documents without simulations.     

An Investigation of Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Eurasian Badger (Meles meles) Scavenging,Scattering, and Removal of Deer Remains: Forensic Implications and Applications

Within northwest Europe, especially the United Kingdom, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and the Eurasian Badger (Meles meles) are the largest wild scavengers capable of modifying a set of remains through scavenging. Knowledge of region-specific and species-typical scavenging behaviors of scavengers within the crime scene area and surroundings can aid in more efficient and accurate interpretations. The scavenging behaviors of captive and wild foxes and badgers were recorded and compared through actualistic methods and direct observation. The scavenging by wild foxes and badgers of surface-deposited baits and whole deer (Cervus nippon; Capreolus capreolus) in a woodland was observed and analyzed. Wild foxes were found to scavenge deer more frequently than badgers. The scavenging of deer remains by foxes was also compared with forensic cases. The scavenging pattern and recovery distances of deer and human remains scavenged by foxes were similar but were potentially affected by the condition and deposition of a body, and the presence of clothing.