Interpretation of repeat measurement DNA evidence allowing for multiple contributors and population substructure

Due to the circumstances in some forensic cases, very small amounts of DNA (<100 pg) may be obtained. This, in turn, may affect the reliability of the PCR process, and so it may be advisable to repeat the amplification process for confirmatory purposes. Gill et al. [Forensic Sci. Int. 112 (2000) 17] proposed a method for the statistical evaluation of the PCR replicate information. In this paper we formalize the method proposed by Gill et al. [Forensic Sci. Int. 112 (2000) 17], and extend it to allow for cases involving mixed stains and for population substructure.     

Bias in Conditional and Unconditional Fixed Effects Logit Estimation: A Correction

In a recent paper published in this journal, Katz (2001) comparesthe bias in conditional and unconditional fixed effects logitestimation using Monte Carlo Simulation. This note shows thatwhile Katz's (2001) specification has "wrong" fixed effects(in the sense that the fixed effects are the same for all individuals),his conclusions still hold if I correct his specification (sothat the fixed effects do differ over individuals). This notealso illustrates the danger, when using logit, of includingdummies when no fixed effects are present.     

The “Thin Dividing Line”: Prime Ministers and the Problem of Australian Nationalism, 1972–1996

This paper is concerned with the way in which Australian prime ministers gave expression to an idea of “national community” in the post–1972 era. With the declining relevance of the British connection, the departure of “great and powerful” friends from the region, the imperative of engagement with Asia and the emerging concept of Australia as a “multicultural” society, one of the central challenges for these leaders has been whether or not they could offer an alternative myth of community which would preserve social cohesion in the new times. This raises an important historical question concerning Australian political culture at this time — what happened to the need for nationalism? By examining the speeches of Prime Ministers Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke and Keating, it can be seen that far from asserting an old–style, exclusive Australian nationalism, in most cases these leaders expressed great caution and hesitation towards the idea of nationalism itself.     

Seeing eye to eye: organizational behaviour,brokering and building trust in Tanzania

The focus of this article is organizational behaviour in and around the private sector in Tanzania at a time of transition through liberalization and the promotion of private sector activity; how the private sector has re‐emerged in the very recent past; how it operates as a group or, more accurately, as a set of groups, and the relationships between its component parts and with other development organizations (notably public actors: the state and aid donors). Within this framework our interest is in how organizational behaviour is mediated and trust is built through the brokering of relations between different organizations which intersect the public and private (and what this means for the public sphere). The article assesses the usefulness of a three‐level framework for analysing organizational and institutional transformation, shows that some tentative but modest change is occurring, and that a range of incomplete but positive political processes are happening. We show that institutional development is the weak link in these processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distinguishing Absentee Students from Regular Attenders: The Combined Influence of Personal,Family, and School Factors

In the present study, the relationship between student attendance and personal characteristics of the student, the student's family relations, and school variables were examined in a sample of 54 high school students. Consistent with earlier reports, t-tests revealed statistically significant relationships between school absence and many student, family, and school variables. The data were also analyzed using a stepwise discriminant analysis. The results showed that the absentee and regular attending students could be distinguished based on a combined set of 6 variables representing each of the three domains of student, family, and school characteristics. The results further revealed that several variables that were statistically significant in the univariate analyses failed to be retained in the discriminant analysis, suggesting that these variables did not contribute sufficient unique variance to warrant their inclusion in the discriminant function. The implications of school absence as a multifactored problem is discussed with respect to assessment and treatment effectiveness.     

An analysis of voter predictive dimensions and recovery of the underlying issue space

Based on the spatial voting model posited by Enelow and Hinich, this paper presents a means of determining the nature of the issue dimensions used by voters. This method allows for calculation of the extent to which the predictive dimensions recover the underlying issues space. Of particular interest is the extent to which a single predictive dimension can recover the issue space. The method also suggests that Enelow and Hinich are correct in their hypothesis that the social liberal-conservative axis and the economic liberal-conservative axis are the dimensions most used by the electorate.     

ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: CONCEPTS, ISSUES, AND THE NATIONAL EXPERIENCE

This symposium examines issues related to the links between administrative reform policy and economic development policy. The symposium introduction paper consists of two parts. First, it offers an overview of the background of theoretical and conceptual issues that are important to the connection between administrative reform and economic development. The issues reviewed include the role of government in economic development, the importance of public policy and management to economic development, the contribution of development administration, and the need of administrative reform to remove bureaucratic problems and promote efficiency. Next, the introduction paper provides a brief summary of the research arguments and findings addressed in the following six articles. They include an evaluation of administrative reform in Arab world economic growth, an examination of administrative reform and economic development in Latin America and the Caribbean, a political economy analysis of policy reform in Korea, a study of the implementation of privatization strategies in India's public sector reform, a discussion of the concerns between efficiency and ethics in China's economic development, and the study of administrative and economic development in Mongolia. The implications of the research findings and the need for further study of the linkage between administrative reform and economic development are emphasized in the conclusion.     

The hometown advantage: Mobilization or conversion?

A number of scholars, beginning with Key (1949), have documented the existence of friends and neighbors voting. In this paper we carry the investigation further, examining how the hometown advantage is constructed. A review of 1982 gubernatorial data suggests that the hometown edge is often a product of two forces: new voters being mobilized in support of the local candidate, and regular voters traditionally loyal to candidates from another party being converted to cast ballots for the hometown hopeful.     

Fact or artifact revisited: Survey instrument effects and pocketbook politics

Sears and Lau (1983) presented evidence that apparent self-interest effects can be, and have been, generated in political surveys by question order artifacts. This evidence was based in part on a tabulation of published reports of self-interest effects in the NES series, specifically on the political effects of personal financial situation. From another analysis of the NES data, Lewis-Beck (1985) concluded, to the contrary, that personal finances have in fact had a consistent effect on voting preferences, without significant contamination from such artifacts. We here argue that his analysis inappropriately defines the conditions for possible contamination. We first lay out a theory of when such contamination effects might occur. We then repeat our analysis, taking into consideration both his observations and our own reappraisal of our procedures. We obtain results consistent with our original position, although the results are confounded by different types of questions appearing disproportionately in contaminated and uncontaminated conditions. However, the 1984 election appears to be a special case, in which self-interest effects were strong and relatively uncontaminated. We then report a split ballot experiment that is not confounded by item content, and find results consistent with our original position. However this methodological debate may be resolved, on the larger question of whether people's economic self-interest has major political implications, the evidence seems clear. In cases not contaminated by item order, which we would take to be the most appropriate test of self-interest effects, personal finances have on the average had only a small effect on political responses.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1989 annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago. Address all correspondence before June 30 to Richard R. Lau, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; after July 1 address correspondence to Richard R. Lau, Department of Political Science, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903.