Fragmentation of presidential elections and governability crises in Latin America: a curvilinear relationship?

Part of the literature views high numbers of presidential candidates as a threat to political stability in presidential democracies. A contradictory model proposes that an overconcentration of the presidential party system is problematic. Both models are hard to reconcile. We approach this puzzle by arguing that the relationship between the level of presidential election fragmentation and governability crises is curvilinear: both very low and very high effective numbers of presidential candidates increase the risk of governability crisis. We test this theoretical claim with ordered logit models drawing on a sample of 108 presidencies in Latin America between 1978 and 2013 and using an ordinal index of the intensity of crisis as the dependent variable. We explore the operation of the theorized causal mechanisms through case studies and argue that they are different at both extremes, high and low levels of fragmentation. Finally, we formulate implications for the design of presidential electoral rules drawing on the debate contrasting runoff and plurality rules.     

Contested meanings,myths and hyperimages of the apocalypse: the Bakhtin Circle and the politicisation of catastrophism

This article considers the depoliticising effects of current images and myths of apocalyptic visions, such that the world faces a catastrophe whether this emerges from environmental degradation, mass migration, terrorism, or global financial collapse. In our digital media age, apocalyptic images are now also captured through the raw footage of actual disaster events. In the article we call such footage, “hyperimages”. The power of the hyperimage is not, as Baudrillard once said, that reality is “just like the movies”, rather, hyperimages demonstrate that the image captured and shown to others is all too real because they depict actual everyday disasters. Importantly, such is the power of hyperimages that they are often employed by the political right to help them construct a hegemonic project aiming to win state power and to influence state policies. Drawing on the Bakhtin Circle, however, we show that hyperimages are also mediated and circulated through a multitude of social groups and voices in society, which contain seeds of radical heteroglossic alternatives to that of the right. Following this, the article then examines how responses to apocalyptic hyperimages can be politicised in a progressive direction.     

Splitting the Tactical Vote? Coordination Problems with Polling Model-Driven Tactical Voting Websites

The 2019 general election gave prominence to tactical voting advice websites, particularly those projecting constituency-level results using national polling data and sophisticated multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) polling models. We see tactical voting as an example of a coordination game and argue that polling-model driven advice websites are disruptive to the existing focal points for strategic voting. Although such websites may well help identify the strongest candidate based on constituency demographics, the article argues they are unlikely to coalesce support behind that single candidate, a prerequisite for successful tactical voting. In practice, there are multiple competing models and websites as well as other key sources of information to voters. Furthermore, the heuristic of relying on tactical voting websites is vulnerable to strategic action by partisans. In short, it is argued that the emergence of these websites risks muddying the waters further for electors seeking to vote tactically, potentially splitting the tactical vote rather than unifying it.     

Policing alienated minorities in divided cities

Minority groups frequently challenge the legitimacy of legal authorities, particularly the police. Without trust and legitimacy, the police encounter constant conflict and cannot function effectively. While past research has examined minorities’ perceptions of the police, national minorities provide an interesting and under‐investigated test case because of their inherent identity conflict with the state. The current research examines three factors to explain minority–majority disparities in views of the police: (i) police effectiveness and fairness; (ii) intergroup discrimination (termed relative deprivation in policing); and (iii) identification with the state. Findings from a survey of Jewish and Arab residents of nationally mixed neighborhoods in Israel (n = 394) suggest that while all of these factors account for minority–majority discrepancies in views of the police, perceptions of police fairness are particularly important. Furthermore, feelings of discrimination and low levels of identification with the state are less important than evaluations of fairness in explaining minorities’ negative perceptions of the police.     

How Stable and Reasonable is Postcommunist Public Opinion? The Case of the Czech Republic

The quality of democracy depends on both politicians and citizens. While most attention has focused on politicians, this paper looks at citizens. There has been some scepticism about whether the postcommunist public is prepared to rule their countries. The legacies of communism and the rigours of the transition may have produced citizens whose opinions are unstable and ill-informed and therefore a poor basis for democratic policy making. This paper tests this proposition by considering the nature of public opinion in the Czech Republic. Its main conclusion is that postcommunist public opinion is more reasonable than conventional wisdom suggests. Opinions on most policies change slowly if at all and when they do change the changes are prompted more by gradual shifts in mores than by political manipulation. This suggests that citizens in the region are prepared to have a significant voice in policy making.     

‘Merely Birds of Passage’: Lady Hariot Dufferin’s travel writings and medical work in India, 1884–1888

This article examines the travel writings and medical work in India of Lady Hariot Dufferin, Vicereine of India between 1884 and 1888. Lady Dufferin accompanied her husband, the Viceroy Lord Dufferin, through various social and political engagements in India, and carved her own niche in colonial and post‐colonial history as a pioneer in the medical training of women in India. The article examines her travel writings on India and explores the nature of her complicity in the Raj, as well as the gendered nature of the separate public role she created for herself in relation to her ‘zenana work’ in providing medical care for the women of India. The author suggests that, through her work, Lady Dufferin challenges and extends the theoretical paradigms of post‐colonialist and feminist critiques of empire.     

‘Bad’ Boys and ‘Sad’ Girls? Examining Internalizing and Externalizing Effects on Parasuicides Among Youth

Suicide and parasuicides (i.e. suicidal ideation and suicidal attempt) have long been recognized as serious social problems, especially among youth. A series of logistic regression models were developed incorporating various internalizing and externalizing risk factors experienced by young people with the goal of predicting parasuicides among Canadian youth. The main objective of the research is to determine whether or not there are significant sex differences between these internalizing and externalizing influences on suicidal behavior. Data were used from the National Longitudinal Study of Children and Youth—Waves 3 through 6, for a total sample of 2,499 15-year olds (48.9% male). Results show that both suicidal ideation and attempt are more frequent for girls compared to boys. Contrary to expectations, externalizing problems had a greater impact on girls and internalizing problems had a marginally greater impact on boys. This casts doubt on the notion that “bad boys” and “sad girls” are at greater risk for suicidal behavior. These results are discussed in light of their substantive importance, policy implications, and suggestions for future research.     

Canine Population Data Generated from a Multiplex STR Kit for Use in Forensic Casework*

Abstract: Canine biological specimens are often part of the physical evidence from crime scenes. Until now, there have been no validated canine‐specific forensic reagent kits available. A multiplex genotyping system, comprising 18 short tandem repeats (STRs) and a sex‐linked zinc finger locus for gender determination, was developed for generating population genetic data assessing the weight of canine forensic DNA profiles. Allele frequencies were estimated for 236 pedigreed and 431 mixed breed dogs residing in the U.S. Average random match probability is 1 in 2 × 10³³ using the regional database and 1 in 4 × 10³⁹ using the breed dataset. Each pedigreed population was genetically distinct and could be differentiated from the mixed breed dog population but genetic variation was not significantly correlated with geographic transition. Results herein support the use of the allele frequency data with the canine STR multiplex for conveying the significance of identity testing for forensic casework, parentage testing, and breed assignments.